Kevin Reilly

Rain 33f humidity 85% dew point 29f

So far this storm is exactly as modeled maybe a bit quicker but not by much in regards to changeover.

Changeover here 34f humidity 82% dew point 29f sleet total snowfall 0.11” grass cars only

Parachute flakes here some sleet 34f humidity 81% dew point 30f cars caving 0.10” on grass that changeover line is like literally 4 miles south and east of me

Light snow 36f humidity 67% dew point 26f zero accumulation all surfaces wet

Heading somewhere we haven’t been before model agreement 4 days out you see the big dogs at long leads? I don’t really know either? oh models caving lol!!

28” here in extreme SE Pa

It’s already 36f here

Cloudy sun peaking out 34f humidity 52% dew point 18f under over snow 0.4” under over rain 1.55” under over wind 44 mph

So it does the NAM thing then chasing convection south of us right out to sea and not phasing because honestly it looked like the 6z gfs was also doing this as well to a degree.

Here comes a weenie handbook phrase: “Let’s split the difference!”

Miller A

It’s the ribeyes fault it must have been damn Goooood!!

Yes yesterday at 12z

Hope the ribeye was awesome!!

Increasing cloudiness 26f humidity 53% dew point 12f wind calm.

Unless the gfs and Euro AI are too focused on the southern shortwave heading out.

I mean seriously everything right now is a total wait and see but models are nice to look at. The speed and movements of the pieces are going to change over the next 24-48 hours I believe especially once our power house storm leaves Sunday. Once again we are staring at an interesting storm coming in tomorrow to Sunday complete with snow to rain possibly thunderstorms for some followed by power outage 50 mph gusts Sunday into Monday, but yet we find ourselves looking beyond to what is coming in 4.5 days we have been doing this since the thunderstorm hail fest right before Christmas. I’m still in the camp a lot of things can go wrong with this set up the one I fear most is the guide stage right out to sea and or develop too late and bury New England time will tell. If 20” is still on the table come Monday night I’m really excited!

Screams progressive flow knock it east regime which is plausible at this lead.

Shades of 1996 with this model showing this while Euro just moves on northeast.

Holy Fook!!! FOLKS!!!

Gfs snowfall map looks very wonky in SE Pennsylvania I’ve never seen a solution like that toss!

Possible line of thunderstorms too!

In the what can go wrong department I can see the storm developing too late we get some snow 3-6” but the big winners is New England when they get 2-3 feet.

We take but we know this is changing like 10 more times and probably is a southern New England crusher while we get 4-6” we can dream though!