Kevin Reilly

No wind here heavy rain for about 5 minutes from the area you highlighted. that’s the report with that it’s all aloft makes sense too with 981 mb racing NE over Chicago but new low pressure is probably developing near by.

Hmmm sun instability but not here

Hmmm my under over is 0.40” and 44 mph

Here too trash night the models have nailed this many times this year!

Umm this is basically one squall line a few showers in front and back then outta here. My under over tomorrow down here is 0.40" My under over wind tomorrow is 44 mph.

GEFS actually in a better spot for SE PA but we’ve seen this song and dance this is where everything gets shoved further south.

Oh wait it’s the American model didn’t they cut that model to save money.

15 runs and I’m interested lol

Yea right lol…. That set up is so flawed for snow. 1. No cold high up north 2. primary almost to western PA 3. 981 cruising near DCA ene way too close as warmer air floods off the Atlantic. 4. Oh look a Great Lakes low. 5. sun angle etc relative surface warmth. 6. 18z will be 66 and sunny with 25% humidity and west southwest winds gusting 30-35 with scattered fires.

We should start a thread looks like a 984 mb low in the Ohio Valley wind rain severe thunderstorms 2-3” of rain and 1-2’ of snow in northwest flank.

Are we still tracking the Joe Bastardi March 1993 type storm he said is possible or is that a no go?

Yea big dent in the drought here today 0.02”

100% it is rain and it will verify.

#12 is happening book it for this area lol

Good luck! Storm track way north and another storm track way south the only thing we see is wind and rain later. I cannot rule out a light 1” event on the grass down this way and 2-4” up your way. ways I see it were are done!

12.83” total here that’s all with 2 freezing rain events we sleet and severe thunderstorms 3 times with hail along with damaging winds up to 65-70 mph Presidents Day Weekend pretty active but precip meh. ACY got way more than 4-8” thru got more than that in one storm. it was like a split more north more south with little in the middle difluence the entire winter here bad kind of blocking lol.

Not here we barely cleared 2”

Much improved over the past few years.

Yea I’ve spent $745 on oil heat this season it too bad and right now I sit between half and quarter tank with a 240 gallon tank think I’m good to not get anymore oil until July or August

67 and sunny that day.

Another issue I’m seeing split flow jet lifting north into Canada precipitation further north jet well south leaving us high and dry with a passing shower or 2 every 4-6 days it’s a drought pattern to boot.

This pattern that we are in doesn’t even suggest that a March 8th to 14th 1993 type storm is even remotely possible. March 1993 was a triple phased storm with the mother load of Arctic Air heading to the central Gulf of Mexico …. Right now, and into next two weeks I’m seeing an untimed split flow with zero phasing systems pretty far apart maybe well east there can be a phase but not here right now. Also, over time we are progressively getting into more and more of a westerly to west southwesterly flow of relatively milder air over time. This is all Bastardi ratings nonsense that happens every year to get the last gasp of ratings for the pay check.

This pattern that we are in doesn’t even suggest that a March 8th to 14th 1993 type storm is even remotely possible. March 1993 was a triple phased storm with the mother load of Arctic Air heading to the central Gulf of Mexico …. Right now and into next two weeks I’m seeing an untimed split flow with zero phasing systems pretty far apart maybe well east there can be a phase but not here right now.

Altoona too I check and it seems they haven’t had snow on the ground for about 4 days dating back to Christmas.

2%-3% Chance of an asteroid strike that year too.