BTRWx's Thanks Giving

I just don't see why people seem excited about the long-term pattern. I see no -NAO from eps means. I think this winter will be a late bloomer.

I think the opposite happens more often, but that might be for enso years specifically.

Flurries!

lucky!

I came here just to find out! Congrats on your first flakes!

The one big reason I want to discount 1961-62 is the nina leading into that winter was notable.

You should include the airport averages in the original post.

Joe Bastardi's Saturday Summary had an interesting map plotted showing years that the Indian Ocean dipole was above average during non-nino years. 1961-62 (15" @DCA), 1983-84 (8.6" @dca) and 2012-2013 (disaster winter). Fwiw, each of those winters had at least a trace in November. I have an extremely cautious view going into this winter.

Who would have guessed a day 7 snow threat would become a rain threat the next day?

That is exactly what my analogs focused on (cool east Pac and warmer west-central Pac). I also expect a warm December.

I think November can be just as important (if not more) relative to the rest of winter. Could you run those numbers when you get a chance?

If the polar vortex gets dislodged by the end of October, which some models are hinting at, then the relaxation in December similar to last year is more likely imo. We are way too early to want a pv!

It wasn't mini.

Perspecta Weather's winter outlook includes all three of my analogs! https://www.perspectaweather.com/blog/2019/10/14/800-am-2019-2020-winter-outlook-by-perspecta-weather?fbclid=IwAR13Rxrc-fcKctrDYjW9Vn-sN6p2tUPG08K_ilYBtCUM4KXIY5GX1155IDY

I'm glad to see the 2004-2005 analog that lines up with my blog last week!