BTRWx's Thanks Giving

Um, that's last year!

Lmao!

I agree. Signals have not been great early. For what it's worth, the tropical Pacific is probably the best region to extend far out into the long range for any season. The eastern tropical Pacific seems to be cooling rather quickly. One saving grace is that the daily SOI today was -35 and that seems quite unusual with the beginning stages of a possible nina. Beyond that, I like to find analogs of global ssta values globally compared to other years. I haven't looked at analogs yet myself.

Personally, I'm all for sharing sub-regions. Just don't overstay your welcome, because the other guys will make your time rather unpleasant if you do. As long as you don't talk about your region here, you should be fine.

He's falling more and more victim to political interests it seems. I had to unfollow him unfortunately.

What does the eps show?

GEFS has the low headed into the GOM. Fox5 met Mike Thomas thinks that would lead to a weaker system.

So dang far!

When a hurricane rides up the coast, can it be expected that a ridge will then build over us?

It's much weaker than it was. https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/clim/sst.anom.anim.week.html

Losing the northeast Pacific blob sucks.

I would think a surge is still a good possibility for immediate coastal locales in east FL.

Anticyclonic spin at 4:00...fail

I know the hrrr isn't a hurricane model, but its short range capabilities show that nicely. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hrrr&region=seus&pkg=ref_frzn&runtime=2019090218&fh=7

I think also the land interaction with the core has hindered intensity and when it fully passes the Bahamas, some restrengthening may occur.