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About tnweathernut

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  • Birthday April 26

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    Johnson City, TN

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  1. Terrible news. Let us know if we can do anything to help........
  2. I thought most areas were supposed to get below freezing tonight (north of 40) Now I see lows in the 34 range. No wonder they are being conservative. If we could make it to around 29-30 it would have a much bigger impact, IMO.
  3. It looks more marginal than the last system for areas south of 40. North of 40 it seems to be a better profile, but more concerns about amount of precip. As with almost all SE snow possibilities, there are factors for us all to overcome... lol
  4. Always a concern as to whether it's right or not, but we are in a time period where we are no longer talking about the NAM at LR. At the same time, other modeling has moved steadily toward what the NAM has had all along. It's probably overdone on amounts, but then again............when is it not?
  5. Yep, totally different from the first few words..... lol nice find........You always amaze me with your records and recollections. You are a great asset to our group!!
  6. There was a scenario several years back where modeling was not enthused at all about precip into Tennessee. I remember Robert @ WxSouth ended up picking up on the inverted trough and in the end there was a decent snow from it. I can't remember the year, but my recollection tells me the basics were familiar... (i.e. overrunning, inverted trough, no defined low, etc.) Does anyone else remember this event?
  7. Still not too excited about this one, but the flow has backed a bit over the last several runs on modeling. This is probably oversimplified, but IF we can manage a WSW flow vs ESE or even W, there's at least a chance for more generous precip. In a nutshell I am hoping for the best, preparing for the worst I guess you'd say. Regarding time, when you see "Z" time, just subtract 5 hours to get to actual time in the EST zone, and subtract 6 hours in the CST zone.
  8. 9 times out of 10 these setups will produce precip much further north than being modeled 3-4 days out... that said, 500mb is a hot mess on most modeling, including the 12z Euro OP (i.e. we likely find the 1 out of 10).
  9. Congrats to our SE mid-south forum peeps. This is awesome. Congrats and enjoy!
  10. Would be nice if we can also get a couple of those TD's that followed............ haha
  11. Good luck to all out to my west. Hope there are some pleasant surprises out y’all’s way!!
  12. Still pops later, but you are right. At least for this run vs. the past 3, it looks a bit delayed.
  13. It's been pretty bad........ but the Euro was throwing a solution last night so who knows. Normally, if someone's life depended on the ICON being right from day 8............... I'd tell them to have their family go ahead and prepare their obituary and wish them God speed.
  14. Banter post......... Looks like a fire breathing monster with ice cold eyes and green hair blowing a torch fest down on the lower 48. On topic, I will remain optimistic with what I am seeing. In order for this to work though, we are going to need to see modeling correct colder at 2M. This is something I can't remember happening in the winter months (D-F) in over 2 years. I am in, until I'm out.
  15. Is it actually even possible for literally EVERY good feature to be polar opposite (i.e. bad) at day 10 when comparing the GFS and Euro? Asking for a friend.....