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About tnweathernut

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  • Birthday April 26

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    Johnson City, TN

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  1. Modeling (euro/gfs) is generally doing a pretty good job from 144 hours out it appears. Just toggling back through prior runs and they look to be generally accurate (placement of high to the north and low to the south) for the system projected through here in the next day or so. I did notice a bit too much progression in the southern branch from the GFS and both look to miss the strength of the high pressure by several MB (1035 to 1037 from 6 days out, now projected to be 1030 to 1032) I also noted the western ridge backing just a bit on modeling, especially the GFS. Just a few things to watch as the 12z runs come in. This run of the GFS already has fairly sizable changes from 6z at 500....
  2. Yeah, and that wedge would not erode as quickly as modeled. Would be a major winter storm in the CAD areas as portrayed. Now is the threat real, who knows? It does make sense to see something like that with what’s going on at 500.
  3. Sure looks like it. If there was something to hold that (1040+) high in place it would have shown a big winter storm. With the high moving at such a fast speed any winter chances would rely solely on perfect timing. That is usually pretty hard to come by. There does appear to be an open window of opportunity though. Maybe we can luck into something? The southern stream just keeps sending moisture at us...... Also, not that it’s worth talking about day 10+, but the Euro at 12z appears to be setting up for a doozy of a storm just beyond hour 240. Surface reflection in the central gulf and energy and cold diving in to capture it. It’s always fun to imagine the possibilities!
  4. Maybe, but the moisture stream off the Pacific still looks good. Keep that look consistently and you'd think we have to score eventually.
  5. back in the day I remember a southwest low not being a terrible thing. Would spit out smaller disturbances and with enough cold provide lighter snow opportunities. Then, when the main system kicked there would be a chance at a major system somewhere in the east. If the cold is tough to dislodge, ice becomes a much bigger concern. Let's see how the pattern evolves. Nothing but good vibes today, which is always fun...
  6. I was to blame last year. After the Dec snow I went out and bought a UTV and plow.... didn’t snow again. Glad it’s someone else this year.
  7. Speaking of LR difficulties in December and if you want to see a great example of the butterfly effect in full effect, take a look at the 500mb level on tropical tidbits beyond day 10. This current run (12z) is night and day different over the top. There is so much blocking showing on this run and it's an almost complete 180 from the last several runs. Just toggle between prior runs and you will see why educated guesses into the future often fail.
  8. Good stuff the last couple of posts, @Carvers Gap. This may be a bit off topic, but........ It's almost comical when we go back and look through old long range threads we are always talking about the same indexes, what looks good for winter and which things might throw a wrench into things. All I can definitively say is this science (beyond a couple of days) is one of, it not THE toughest things on earth one can venture into to make educated guesses on. I feel like modeling has come a long way in the last couple of decades, but I am not sure the professional community/scientists ever (in our lifetimes) make a ton of headway in long range prediction. The butterfly effect is always working against the smartest individuals the planet has to offer. It's not like we can expect non-linear equations to ever become linear. lol All that said, I can't say how much I appreciate those who do this for a living and how much I am bothered by people with zero understanding cracking meteorologist jokes like it should be easy.. On topic, if a gun was held to my head I'd go with a 65% chance of above normal temps in December with a variable pattern of warm and cold. A lot of this guess is simply based in climatology and the atmosphere acting like a fairly healthy Nino right now. The biggest wildcard is the beating the strat is taking and how that may affects things going forward.
  9. Winter in the 90's were in a really warm period, yet in northeast Tennessee we managed a great snow year (1996) and two other huge snows (1993 and 1998). I was thinking back to this just a couple of days ago. As warm and "relatively" snowless as that decade was it provided snows and snowy periods not really seen since. I just want to have the internet and modeling we have now and to go have something like that to track.......... Can you all imagine how exhausted we'd be if we were tracking another 1993 from 7-10 days out?? As far as where we go in December, I am not at all worried. Last year parts of east Tennessee saw a major snow before Dec 10th and then winter was largely over. This year, if it's warm I will just enjoy it and know we have January and February ahead of us. It can't be as bad as last year. (seems like I have thought this several times in the last 10 years, lol) Quick everyone, look at the 500 level. There is a unicorn there, the -NAO. Maybe it will come visit more as we get deeper into winter. Happy early Thanksgiving to everyone on the board! Hope you enjoy time with family and friends the next several days. I am sure we can all think of many things to be grateful for....
  10. Glad you are feeling better, Jeff. Just curious, did you take the flu shot this year?
  11. Good discussions here the last few days. Thanks for the maps, Carvers! This is probably the calm before the storm. It has been a LONG time since we have seen early season blocking in Greenland come to fruition. We have seen it as a mirage virtually every winter this decade at long leads, but it almost never materializes. If blocking forms as universally projected as a closed circulation (now well within day 4) our chances of scoring a system to track go way up IMO. This kind of a block won't typically break down easily and can last for longer than modeling tends to indicate. It may take some time to attain a workable Pacific and/or work cold enough air into the pattern, but should the Pacific not align in a fashion that sends a deep trough into the west, it's not unreasonable we would have something to track around the first part of December. If what happens in November the winter will remember, we may be in for a memorable year in the snow/ice department.
  12. The GEFS at 12z certainly isn't warmer than average toward the end of its run in late November around Thanksgiving. No clue if it's onto something (or just ON something), but if it is............... it has a lot of puzzle pieces in good places. From the consistent Aleutian low presence and the +PNA with split flow underneath, to hints of Greenland blocking and confluence in the east it looks pretty good to me. If it wasn't a 300+ hour projection and was mid to late December and not November I"d be pretty stoked to see the broad WSW flow indicated. Wouldn't take much of a shortwave to provide overrunning precip from that look....... would just be a matter of finding "cold enough" for something other than rain. Kind of hard to find "cold enough" in November, but we did manage some snow already, so not impossible. I put our chances at tracking before month end at 5%. That's WAY higher than what I had it at just a couple of days ago..... lol
  13. Looks like about .75 to an 1 inch in spots around north Johnson City. This was a good tune up for what will hopefully come later (and often). Looks to be one band just to my northwest with a nice little max in it. Guessing if you are under that you are watching a bunch of fatties fall from the sky. Congrats to all who saw at least SOME snow! Throw an extra log on the fire tonight and another blanket on the bed............
  14. Awesome to have your insight. Looking forward to watching the afternoon and evening modeling roll in and also seeing if this system has a trick or two up its sleeve tomorrow morning.
  15. I wouldn't discount the Euro snow map from Holston above. It does display a relative snow hole over my house in Washington County of northeast TN. This is likely more accurate than anyone realizes. lol