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About tnweathernut

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  • Birthday April 26

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
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  • Location:
    Johnson City, TN
  1. Spring/Summer 2018 Mid to Long Term Discussion.

    This would be the second opportunity to discuss snow in the spring/summer thread. Even though unlikely....... the pattern says it’s not impossible.
  2. Winter Speculation 17/18 -December Thread

    maybe mid month we can score a small size hail system enough to cover the ground? If that happened, both severe weather and winter lovers (kind of looks like snow) could be fed. lol
  3. Historic Tennessee Valley Cold, Snow, and Ice Events

    That map I posted for 1960 doesn't really have any reports from your area, but if you guessed based on nearby reports that would have put you in the 30-35" range. I am guessing you were probably higher than that though.....?
  4. Historic Tennessee Valley Cold, Snow, and Ice Events

    This is also a great site if you have a few hours to kill. Not all stations reported, but several did. You can find one close to you and search daily data. http://w2.weather.gov/climate/xmacis.php?wfo=mrx
  5. Historic Tennessee Valley Cold, Snow, and Ice Events

    1960 is the gold standard for mid-south/southeast/carolina's March snow. It gets talked about a lot and I remember first studying it back when easternwx was around. Here is a 500mb map from the first 1/2 of 1960 as well as the surface temp anomaly for the same period. There are some 500 similarities, but I don't think the cold would have the potential to be as strong. I have also included the snow map I could find. I am sure it doesn't do John's snowfall justice (lol), but it was accurate for "recorded snow in and around the Tri-Cities (snowiest March on record just shy of 28")
  6. Winter Speculation 17/18 -December Thread

    There shouldn’t be very many 6” snows in March across our forum area. What are we talking, probably 3-5 at most? Question is, what resources do we use to find them?
  7. Winter Speculation 17/18 -December Thread

    With SO many false starts regarding the NAO over the past several years I have been playing the waiting game. After several days of following the NAO forecasts, and a couple of weeks of SSW....... the coming -NAO looks legit. It's on all global modeling ensembles and aside from the GFS trying to jump the gun with one false start, modeling has been INCREDIBLY consistent. What does this mean though?? We appear (all that can be said at this moment) to be headed toward a period of late season winter. That doesn't mean snow, but I'd expect and active storm track being forced under the blocking with below normal temperatures across a widespread area. I think the mountains will eventually be hit with a good snow, but the jury will still be out for much of our subforum. The Pacific is going to be a wildcard, but is showing indications it won't be as hostile as it appeared several days ago... All this said, it's not often we are in the game with such a good look as we head into the last week or so of February. Hopefully, in the coming 3-5 days a threat will emerge or at the very least we can begin to see how this block will set up and which areas are more likely for late season fun and games.
  8. Historic Tennessee Valley Cold, Snow, and Ice Events

    That's part of what made 1993 so special. Just think of the technology we had back then and to know this system was fairly well forecast from 5 days out while the southeast baked in above normal temps leading up to the event is pretty remarkable. I can't imagine what this board would be like if a system like that started showing up on modeling almost a week out and came to fruition. Pretty sure the servers wouldn't be able to handle it. I was in college at ETSU. I remember the forecast for a heavy snow, but being from Nashville I took a chance and left for spring break to be with family and friends. I left that Friday, the 12th at the same time a buddy of mine at ETSU left to head to Danville, VA. I only saw light snow showers and flurries till late that night when backbuilding FINALLY edged into middle TN (we ended up with 2-3", but I remember drifts over 8'). A couple of weeks later I learned my buddy, who left at the same time, encountered heavy snows heading through SW VA and got stuck between here and home. He said the snow got heavy quick and he ended up spending a good chunk of spring break at a run down motel...
  9. 2017-2018 Winter Observations

    Those pictures are AWESOME! Thanks for sharing.....
  10. Winter Banter 2017/18

    Vols are YOUNG. James Daniel is the only SR. Future is bright!
  11. Winter Banter 2017/18

    Also excited about ETSU's chances. I wish they had ended up beating #10 Xavier (a team they led by almost 20 on their court and went cold, losing by 2). They are having a really impressive year. As for the second bolded part, I think they will remain competitive as long as Forbes is there. The fly in the ointment will be if he ends up wanting to move along after a few good seasons. Guy can coach, I don't think his ceiling is mid-major. I hope we can hang on to him for several more years, it's going to be painful when ETSU loses him...
  12. Winter Speculation 17/18 -December Thread

    Up here that would apply to rain and snow. Ha ha
  13. Winter Speculation 17/18 -December Thread

    Well, apparently I checked 0z. That's what was giving a chunk of east TN 2-3". 12z didn't have much, but did show the shadow of the valley nicely. Hope some of us get lucky and score a quick couple of inches before washing it away. At least we have successive fairly moisture laden events coming. We need rain.
  14. Winter Speculation 17/18 -December Thread

    I'd feel better (more confident) about it if I had gotten my 2" from last night.... lol
  15. Winter Speculation 17/18 -December Thread

    Almost hate to ask because I know you want to be done posting on this.... lol but how big is the data set (MJO phase 7 with +global wind). Same question for MJO phase 8 with -global wind? Is the correlation between what you have pointed out 100%, or near 100%?