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Everything posted by tnweathernut

  1. For Feb, March, and April phase 8 is generally correlated to average temps in the TN Valley, but colder than average as you head toward the east coast. Phases 1, 2, and even 3... are generally correlated to colder than normal in the TN Valley region for FMA.
  2. It never made sense to me seeing modeling send a strong system through middle Tennessee only to have the boundary come west for a system just a couple of days later. That seems to have been an error. Biggest question is how close to reality is it now? More changes incoming, IMO. A front end thump is possible for many in east Tennessee (outside Chattanooga of course). I didn't think that was possible just a day or two ago.
  3. Just once, I'd like to see a clean surface and 850 low pass. Seems almost impossible to not send energy into east TN that wrecks the thermals. I appreciate @Carvers Gap for trying to will a winter threat to our area over the last couple of days. lol
  4. This is AWESOME. Happy for you guys out in far west TN. Hope middle can realize more sleet than ZR, but not looking good on that front ATM.
  5. It’s not good for anyone from the eastern valley to northeast TN. Great for west and much of middle. Likely to be a storm to remember out that way. Enjoy!
  6. Looks very similar to the 12z euro at the surface. That's a heck of a wedge (all the way back into northeast Alabama). Don't see that depicted every day!
  7. We need something to lock the cold air in place. I don't see that when looking at 500. It's crazy seeing a storm cut north into a massive high, but when looking at 500mb it doesn't seem impossible. In fact, where it goes looks more likely than solutions further south and east. As @Carvers Gap mentioned, it might be hard for the cold air to scour quickly enough to avoid problems early week (even in east TN), but the environment would warm quickly and change us from frozen to liquid up this way. Further west in west and middle Tennessee, it might not ever stop throwing ZR in west TN, and the central plains might be nicknamed the new frozen tundra of the lower 48.
  8. I feel we have had a good winter. Any time you can score a Christmas snow it automatically becomes at least ............ good! Then, we have had a couple of minor snows as well. All in all it's felt MUCH closer to what I remember winter being when I was a kid. Looking forward, I'm a bit of a pessimist for northeast TN this AM. I thought the very cold air would have an easier time pressing more east vs. south. Up here, we can hope the SE ridge doesn't flex and continues to be overdone on modeling when looking at next week. As a side note, I have gotten to the point where I enjoy hunting 6-12 inch snows more than nickel and dime events. I know I can go to the mountains to see them, but nothing like a snow in your back yard. Back in the 90's (considered a blazing hot decade and relatively snowless) I got to experience 2 separate 12 inch snows, and just missed the other (blizzard of 93, left JC to go home - Gallatin - for spring break). I'm not sure what changed since then, but we have managed to elude the 12 inch mark since 1998...... where I live. Seems we are well over-due, so maybe we find a big one before this year is done? At any rate, it looks golden for winter weather in west and parts of middle TN, which is awesome to see!
  9. Vanishes is probably a poor choice of words. It does appear it is projected to re-strengthen down the line, although nothing close to what we are coming out of. The GFS seems to move toward a thumb ridge of sorts around this time in central Canada. That might help, but the NAO as a whole definitely seems to wane for a period early next week. Probably doesn't take west and middle TN out of the winter crosshairs though. Further east, I see it as a problem.
  10. I am not so sure on this. It seems we have had GREAT blocking for a while now, but at the time when the air is coldest our blocking vanishes. The storms next week may well correct north and/or west. I still think middle and especially west Tennessee have a LOT of winter coming at them the next 7-10 days. Hope it provides a memorable period for you guys out that way.....
  11. I’m always pleased to see other areas of our forum score, but I’m not sure I’d wish a destructive ice storm on anyone! Good luck out that way with this one. Hopefully, your next chance early next week is more snow than ice!
  12. Yeah, I was just mentioning to @Carvers Gap how I thought there's virtually no way what the 12z euro shows at 500 actually happens after 72-96. i'd say the potential cold press in the near/mid term is legit and the chances for ice that come along with it. Toward late next and weekend I have a big problem with how this model run of the euro plays out at 500. Way too many intricate interactions happening to play out this way. Guess we will see.
  13. It will be interesting to see if we can continue this trend. If we do this weekend should be fun.
  14. Could well be the Euro is trolling....... lol One thing I will note on the 12z Euro. I really don't like this interaction early on with the PV in Canada. It's been on this for several days now and looks much closer to what is happening vs. the American modeling from 3 days ago. Not sure what that means down the line, guess we will have to see how this plays out down the line.
  15. Yeah, no doubt. Been waiting on Barnes to turn the freshmen loose. Definitely good to see them take over last night. Them doing what they did will likely help Fulkerson, Pons, and James down the stretch on offense. Hope we see them perform with consistency from here on out. This one game good one game bad stuff has to stop. lol
  16. Yeah, I guess it’s all about perspective. As I get older, the small snows seem to be more of a nuisance, but I also know there are a bunch of people over in west, southeast, and middle TN on our forum that would trade places with me in a heartbeat.
  17. Agree, 100%. Hope you guys can score 1 or 2 out that way..... amd I hope it’s more sleet and snow vs ZR.
  18. I noticed the GFS next Saturday morning at 7am had temps between 1 below and 6 above across all of far western TN. The euro at the same time has 41 to 45. Have fun forecasting the weekend with that kind of difference..........
  19. I’ve glanced at the individual panels day 5, mostly rainy with a few throwing frozen and day 7 and 10 which include MANY more panels with snow/ice. There are numerous individuals that get the front all the way to the east coast.
  20. It’s less fun to chase near term systems when there are such swings in modeling this close to an event. Happy for those west of here, but wondering if Kentucky isn’t the true winner when all is said and done (on this side of the Apps)
  21. 3k (apparently it's lightning quick on Pivotal, lol) agrees with the adjustment as it relates to the trailing energy. Maybe we can get some in west and/or middle on the board with this system. Looking less enthused for east Tennessee.
  22. Looked like the trailing ULL energy was more consolidated that run. No clue if it's right, but those north of I-40 in west and middle TN just sat up a bit straighter in their seats. Let's see what the 3k says and the rest of the 18z suite.
  23. Parts of west and middle Tennessee will like the happy hour version of the 12k NAM..... Looks like the trailing piece is a touch stronger. East Tennessee will still do well also. Should be a decent snow map
  24. Best thing you can do is hope for sleet........... zr is crippling at those temperatures.
  25. I know it's been said, but at least for east Tennessee this winter has been infinitely better than the previous 2 winters. Even for middle and west Tennessee I bet it's had to at least feel like a fairly normal winter to this point.
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