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tnweathernut

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  1. tnweathernut
    I see MathMet lurking, hope you are doing well. We all probably MBY focused on some level, but I’d like to know if you have an opinion of the mesoscale models showing the downslope this AM? If your prior opinion still stands no worries about a response, I know you have to be busy....lol overall modeling seems to be converging on a heavy northeast (maybe much of east) TN snow. It’s funny I’m almost obsessing about the trailing piece of energy as much as the main system. I find that discrete feature fascinating!
  2. tnweathernut
    I have been so busy looking at most I haven’t looked at what is actually going on. Is this precipitation way ahead of schedule??
  3. tnweathernut
    Some modeling is still holding onto the idea there is a second impulse in the flow that increases precipitation after the main event. MRX even talked about having to keep their eye on it in their afternoon discussion. If you swing and miss the first pitch, maybe you will get another chance with the second (assuming it’s a real possibility and not just model hallucinations, lol).
  4. tnweathernut
    Yep, that was 12z. 18z just initialized.
  5. tnweathernut
    I noticed that for MBY on the 18z 3k NAM. It looked like a band developed at the tail end (almost like a squall line) and lifted north throughout northeast TN. The snow shows as red, the highest possible intensity. Pretty crazy!
  6. tnweathernut
    UKMET at 12z continued the trend of more precip north and west. Still a SHARP cutoff, but northeast TN would likely do very well with this depiction.
  7. tnweathernut
    It will likely just mean we can get NAM'd at longer leads. lol The snow maps for the FV3 are pretty. Would be nice if we all found out they were legit, but i'm not sure any met is buying into them. Overall though, I will say the FV3 has been MUCH more steady and hasn't jumped around like the current GFS. Baby steps..............
  8. tnweathernut
    Well, if you really think about this, the regular GFS (yes, the always suppressed and clueless model) is about the ONLY 12z model with such light amounts and we have generally seen an uptick from 0 and 6z. The FV3 is pretty juicy and has 1" qpf amounts in all of northeast TN and parts of SW VA and has 2" qpf amounts around and southwest of Knoxville. If the Euro jumps back northwest a bit I will feel MUCH better, but as for now I generally feel encouraged after the hangover known as 0z and 6z.
  9. tnweathernut
    We have been following this threat for almost 10 days, and the period (as a period to watch) several days longer than that. We are probably too invested at this point to just give up.. If we end up disappointed, so be it. We've certainly had a lot of practice in that category.....lol
  10. tnweathernut
    I have a feeling modeling is trying to tell us in northeast TN and SW VA to .................. R-E-L-A-X. I hope we see the all to common NW bump.
  11. tnweathernut
    MRX isn't giving up just yet. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Morristown TN 952 AM EST Fri Dec 7 2018 ...A STRONG EARLY SEASON SYSTEM WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ACROSS SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND NORTHEAST TENNESSEE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY... Widespread precipitation will move into the area Saturday as a strong low pressure system approaches the area. Temperatures will be cold enough across northeast Tennessee and southwest Virginia for precipitation to begin as a mixture of rain, snow, and sleet in lower elevations, with mainly snow in the mountains. The best lift and moisture will arrive on Saturday night and continue through Sunday, with significant snow accumulations possible. Snow will begin to taper off on Monday. TNZ014>017-042-044-046-072300- /O.CON.KMRX.WS.A.0002.181209T0000Z-181210T1700Z/ Claiborne-Hancock-Hawkins-Sullivan-Northwest Greene-Washington TN- Northwest Carter- Including the cities of Tazewell, Sneedville, Rogersville, Kingsport, Bristol, Greeneville, Johnson City, and Elizabethton 952 AM EST Fri Dec 7 2018 ...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING... * WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 8 inches possible. * WHERE...Lower elevations of northeast Tennessee including the Tri-Cities area. * WHEN...From Saturday evening through Monday morning. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning commutes. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Winter Storm Watch means there is potential for significant snow, sleet or ice accumulations that may impact travel. Continue to monitor the latest forecasts.
  12. tnweathernut
    Trends aren’t good, but there is some hope. Modeling in the 36-72 range will usually have an undermodeled northern edge. I have seen precio verify regularly northwest of modeling on southern traversing systems with gulf interaction. Not good, but not totally dead either.
  13. tnweathernut
    Any bets the Euro finishes before the FV3? Colder trends tonight are good. Precip shield should be robust throughout TN. If not, I’d be shocked!
  14. tnweathernut
    It’s still pretty epic for a lot of east TN, especially considering it’s early December. :-) I sure don’t want the .35 inches of ZR to go along with the 4-6 kuchera inches on the 0z NAM. That could be very bad!
  15. tnweathernut
    Saturday night/Sunday morning
  16. tnweathernut
    It’s definitely coming in over night. Between midnight and 7am from the looks of it ......
  17. tnweathernut
    I am never falling for any SREF love again. Been burned too many times. I am sure it's useful for something (other than getting hopes up), but refuse to use it as a tool in my toolbox. lol
  18. tnweathernut
    Welcome to the board and nice first post! Nice to see Morristown represented. Fingers crossed modeling consolidates some throughout the day, and gives us a better idea for the eventual evolution of this system and the thermal profile associated with it.
  19. tnweathernut
    I think everyone is shooting for Uber white.... kidding aside....Modeling has been rock steady showing a great system for you guys and the meso models are now showing colder thermals. Y’all enjoy, but keep your eyes on the thermals up until the last moment. It wouldn’t be the first time a rug was pulled in the last seconds. Best of luck sent from the other side of the hill.
  20. tnweathernut
    Hearing from the evil empire to the east (not really) the FV3 is similar to 18z.
  21. tnweathernut
    Not too worried about the ICON, had a pretty good evolution and track. The GFS doesn’t worry me much either, yet. Now if the euro jumps again tonight like last night I will consider that a warning shot. Until then, I’ll just carry on.
  22. tnweathernut
    Well some of us gained back the Canadian. The evolution of the GFS isn’t the final solution. I’m debating staying up to see how long the FV3 can get stuck again at 96. Anyone else?
  23. tnweathernut
    I hope so, cause the old GFS is straight up poo poo for most of TN.
  24. tnweathernut
    Feels like we have run a gauntlet already and still a long way to go (weather wise). Fun storm to have tracked regardless of the outcome.
  25. tnweathernut
    I doubt it, he is normally very thorough....may just not be feeling it for Tennesseans. A LOT of modeling says there’s a good chance TN can escape heavy snow and there’s been a massive warm nose on most modeling. edit: just went and read it. He mentioned I-40N and not trusting precip types, likely referencing there will be more snow in those areas. I’m sure his blog for paid subscribers is chocked full of useful information! He’s one of the best around the SE..
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