tnweathernut

We hold gold medals up this way for downslopes and dryslots

I guess the deep southeast and coastal areas are the new place for regular snows.............. That's what it looks like at 500.

At least it's coming after dark......... silver lining i suppose. lol

@Carvers Gap the maps look really good. Just need a well timed system to drop from Wyoming to Louisiana. I don't have access to individuals. Is the Euro throwing anything showing this type potential or are they mostly showing a gradient pattern in the LR?

Feel better soon. I hope you were able to get on an anti-viral. They say they can really help if started in the first 48 hours.

There are a lot of years we are sitting at Jan 12, hoping things can reset to have a chance late February into March. We are looking at a lot of cold air moving through, and a couple of chances at snow this week. We may miss both, but what we are looking at currently is light years better than where we find ourselves most years.

In the mid-south it’s so much easier to say it’s not going to snow or not going to snow as much. You’d be right 90% of the time. Most of us in here live for the elusive 10%.

Anytime we have cold modeled in our prime part of winter it provides opportunities to look for something. It's still possible (although admittedly fading) the midweek system could surprise. Same with the one for the weekend. If we whiff on both of those, we will just have to see what kind of ridging rolls through and can we find another 1-2 week period in late Jan/early Feb where we start the hunt again?

I feel this also and haven't been invested until a few days ago. Seems to be like pulling teeth to get anything synoptic anymore and even when we do there's always a downslope concern................but when I remember the Carolina peeps and their struggles, it makes me thankful for what we do get.

I thought this had a chance to be a significant system. Still think that’s a possibility, but it looks fairly progressive on modeling with light precip that weakens as it moves east toward the coast. Need to see midweek first I think……

Will be interesting to see the strength of number one and how that affects number two.

I said yesterday I thought the midweek system is likely somewhere between the bombs shown on the GFS and the relatively light Euro/GEM runs. I don’t see anything yet to sway me from that….

Someone else will have to take the night shift. I need to head to bed. Hope the Euro is less no at 0z………

There’s some definite interaction there, just don’t think the chances are high it happens like that.

A strung out mess would have less issues with a thermal profile………. so there’s that. lol

Not sure why it’s wanting to take the energy for the second storm in the base of the trough and send it SW through TX creating what looks like a strung out mess. I still think this one has potential, but I don’t like what it’s doing at 500. if the ridge on the west coast was tilting to the northeast I could see energy doing this, but it’s a really nice ridge so I think the more reasonable solution would be to swing it through. I could be missing something, but this is what I see.

The second system looks like it would be primarily an overrunning setup that minors out as it moves east.

Storm 2 looks a bit deeper and a touch further SW than 18z. Probably snows somewhere in the southeast/Deep South at the surface with that one too.

Really liked the look at 500. Numerous runs have shown a very vigorous piece of energy. In reality it’s probably somewhere between the GFS and Euro, which would mean a pretty good chance at snow for someone on our forum, even if just light.

Boom goes the dynamite from hour 102 to 108 for the half of the state, especially east TN. Snow map will be pretty for some.

I expect this will be another decent run at the surface.

0z GFS looks more like 12z than 18z with the incoming trough midweek

I don’t think we are close enough to discuss timing. I’m still trying to determine if the threat is a legit threat. Got a little closer today though, IMO.

Selfishly, I'm more interested in the one closest in time currently. There looks to be a lot of energy with that system and a decent shot to overperform for someone from the east TN/southern apps part of our region. What catches my eye about this one is the GFS (normally our progressive model) is the one that closes off at 500, slowing the flow and popping a lee side low, while the Euro briefly closes off in the Ohio Valley, but quickly opens back up and scoots harmlessly out to sea. The initial system aside, I think the follower has the potential to be a big system. If you cycle through 500, the piece of energy around day 6 as shown on the 12z GFS comes in much further west through western Montana. Interestingly, even though at the surface it was a smoke show for the entire midsouth, it could have been even bigger if the piece from the four corners had gotten out in front of the energy diving south through the Dakotas (shown above) allowing for a phase. It's this piece in the four corners that detaches from the flow that @Carvers Gap notes as something to watch around the 20-21st. The Euro is much different in the evolution regarding the follower. Lots will change in the next couple of days, but even the Euro while saying no shows quite a bit of "potential".

I can hardly wait for all the Facebook weather experts to tell us about the feet of snow we will all be getting………. (Sarcasm alert)