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tnweathernut

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Everything posted by tnweathernut

  1. tnweathernut
    This is correct. Wave two should bring in a surge of warmth in the upper levels. Surface in Clarksville will remain below freezing I'd think.
  2. tnweathernut
    You guys might end up the big winner in TN. I don't know anyone near that amount............ Congrats!!
  3. tnweathernut
    Awesome, congrats Holston!
  4. tnweathernut
    Enjoy it while you can out in west and middle TN. Hope you can hold onto snow/sleet as long as possible! Up to 32 here in the balmy part of Washington County, TN (i.e. Johnson City'ish)
  5. tnweathernut
    .3-.4? I would think as dry as it’s been that would help
  6. tnweathernut
    I’d just like to say the only long range forecast that has a 90% success rate is one where there’s a low in the lakes…. kidding aside, I’m concerned about pipes popping across the state with the amount of cold in the forecast…
  7. tnweathernut
    If I ever move from the house my wife and I built, just know it will be somewhere north and west of I-81.............. Not sure why i need to tell you guys this, but felt it needed to be verbalized. lol
  8. tnweathernut
    I can see the future with Musk in charge of a weather model..................... Looks like a snowstorm 17 days from now (8-12 inches). Thanks, I'll head to the store and buy a shovel.
  9. tnweathernut
    Sunscreen kidding aside, we have a former NWS guy at our church. Long retired. He told me 15 years ago this area was probably one of the most difficult areas to forecast in North America.
  10. tnweathernut
    I'll be keeping you northern middle TN guys in my thoughts while you are in the upper teens to mid 20's and collecting ICE for hours on end. I'm heading to Walgreens to grab some sunscreen for when the downslope dries me out and pushes me into the 50s on Sunday... :-)
  11. tnweathernut
    That's a good question. Temps are supposed to be in the teens and low 20's for a long duration.
  12. tnweathernut
    Everyone should keep in mind, this is all some of us have to be concerned/curious about for pretty much the duration of this storm................. lol
  13. tnweathernut
    You guys are making my head hurt, not to mention I’m on my phone instead of desktop. Are you saying the same downslope component that warms certain areas (i.e. camp creek) actually works to pull cold air through valleys in the mountain chain from NC to TN in other places?
  14. tnweathernut
    Does anyone want to hear the 12z Euro is trying to snow on the gulf and Florida beaches again at day 9? It's going to nail this at day 9, isn't it? lol
  15. tnweathernut
    Since I punted the current setup over the last 24 hours, I've been watching it. The signal is there, but it's a LONG way out. Back to a 8+ day track. It's what we do... lol
  16. tnweathernut
    We really need the northern stream and southern stream to stay more separated than phases way out west of us.
  17. tnweathernut
    One big takeaway I see on the 18z NAM is the delay of the precipitation onset. Just three runs ago at 7AM EST Saturday, precipitation was streaking into east TN, sw VA, and western NC. This made sense to me from an overrunning perspective, usually faster return flow and further north than modeled. Current run has precip barely making it into central Arkansas by 12z Saturday. What's a 700 mile difference between friends? lol
  18. tnweathernut
    - This is 12z
  19. tnweathernut
    Middle Tennessee, north of I-40 (to the north and west of Nashville) looks to be a disaster zone on the 12z Euro. 6" of snow and .5-1.00 inch of ice.
  20. tnweathernut
    I've learned over the years since moving here in the 1990s to never discount winds rolling into the valley from the mountains. Worst miss I ever saw was in the 90's (early 90s). I remember listening to a weather radio in my dorm at ETSU the day before a big snow storm. 12-16 inches of snow was in the forecast and right before going to bed I listened and the NWS updated the forecast to be 16-20". The next day it rained. Not even that much................. was a total bust. I didn't know it at the time, but it was downslope that not only warmed us into the upper 30's and low 40s, but it also cut the amount of precip that actually fell by 90%.
  21. tnweathernut
    South and East of 81 may dodge this..........thankfully
  22. tnweathernut
    Incredibly (when thinking about where northeast TN was sitting just a handful of runs ago, the 12z Euro drives low 40's surface temps along the spine of the apps in Greene and Washington County around lunch Saturday. Downslope is alive and well at 12z. North and west of 81 would stay in the low to mid 30s.
  23. tnweathernut
    One thing I can say with a lot of confidence...... When we absolutely don't need a phase to happen, it will happen. When we do need a phase it won't.
  24. tnweathernut
    JMO, but it's probably easier to introduce the possibility of half snow, half ZR/sleet than go all the way to a full on ice storm changing to rain. There's still plenty of time and allows them the room to move fully that way in a later update.
  25. tnweathernut
    Prudent, if for no other reason than the ZR possibilities.
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