tnweathernut

When was the last time it snowed more than 3 inches in Memphis, Union City, Gallatin, Fayetteville, Chattanooga, and Bristol (southwest, northwest, north central, south central, southeast, and northeast) from a single storm? Some modeling suggests this system has a chance to pull it off. I'd think it happened last back in the 80s and I'd think it is a very rare occurrence.

I get it. Our snow holes seem to be related. lol

Those downslope holes are still around 2 inches, FWIW.

https://www.colgate.edu/about/campus-facilities/webcams-around-colgate/seven-oaks-webcam yep

12z RGEM ticked up in total QPF for most along I-40 that run. looks like it added about a tenth, no mixing issues. Nice mid-south snow 3-5" (pockets of 6) across the state, verbatim

When I went to high school in Sumner County we had a smoking section outside for the kids and teachers. Times have changed. lol

Kind of like the school system in middle TN sending texts to parents yesterday telling them to have a ride prepared for their children Friday, they were going to attempt to start school. Why? From the first 10 minutes of flakes you are certain to have road problems and the start time has been well modeled between 8-10 am for the last 48 hours now. Hopefully they backtrack and don’t meet at all tomorrow in northern middle TN. If they do I’d question the sanity of the people making these high level decisions.

Looked like that was Miller B’ish. Took lower pressures into middle TN and wrecked the thermals. No other model has been doing that. They’ve all been taking a consolidated low on a great track under us.

The next slide is even better. Just don’t look at it on a full stomach.

No, but it is a perfect representation of the battle the mountain counties face a majority of the time when it comes to temps and precip in winter. Shows why we (usually) can’t have nice things. lol

@Stovepipe Now that you are here see if your trowel can do something about this downslope/dryslot thing the NAM is throwing at us mountain county folk all the sudden….. lol

Stove, my man! Now it’s a party……. Let’s go. Glad to see you.

If this is how it plays out with a healthy system west that weakens as it comes east I'd have to give a hat tip to the EURO. It was showing this as a possibility when other modeling wasn't several days out (5-6). Still uncertainty with how the mountains will affect the mountain counties, but as Fountain points out, the mesoscale modeling is picking up on impacts. Usually when we see this it's not wrong. Just have to see how much of an impact comes with it. Minor differences in the next 24-36 hours can mean the difference in a couple of inches of snow for these areas. Hopefully, the NAM is overdoing these issues.

Going with the model showing the lowest totals is usually the way to go in Tennessee. Just a casual observation over the last 25 years. lol

East TN guys look at your snow map after seeing the mentions of less QPF and then panic before realizing the run hasn't completed yet and it's at least still light snow over our area at 64. lol

We haven't discussed this as a possibility, but the convection along the gulf could also be a culprit in reducing QPF for our area. Wouldn't be the first time. Just throwing this out there.

New technical term, I like it. "Warm Nosey". Going to use that one from now on.

The good news is, this is probably the best position (board wide) we have been in since we have started this forum. We take this setup all day every day and twice on Sunday. It's exactly why we were beating the drum 10 days ago when the ensembles were showing this period as a legit one to watch. It's like we have the All Star team on the field and our .300+ power hitter at the plate with the bases loaded. Good spot to be in for most in here.

It was odd because even though it had a trend early for the low to be more northeast, the low track was a weakening low that eventually made its way ESE over FL for a time........ before moving NE. Not going to happen.

Stop that, Ryan....... We need to will this one to NOT do this to us.. lol

Not sure if it's speed or...........? 12Z NAM has the low about 100-150 miles northeast of its low position from 4 runs ago. It's been trending further northeast each run.

I don’t remember how that storm verified, mainly because I don’t remember any snow from last year. lol

Good to know. There’s always a model or two that probably make the pros break out in hives leading up to the event.

That settles it. Party at D-wags crib.

More of a microclimate thing, Jax. Unicoi, Greene & parts of Washington County tend to pull downslopes and dryslots like a magician pulls a rabbit from a hat. It's a talent we have in spades.