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tnweathernut

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  1. tnweathernut
    Jan 4th SOI - From The Long Paddock site. -20.30 I think the term is “dropping like a rock”....
  2. tnweathernut
    Carvers lives close to there, he said there was one burn injury (guessing from the fire this am). WJHL channel 11 has been on scene for a while and their website likely has more information (or more continuously updated)
  3. tnweathernut
    Yes, there was a BAE fire this morning. Instead of trying to extinguish they thought the best plan of action was to initiate a controlled burn. There were explosives in the building and the loud booms are those explosives discharging. They have been felt all over northeast TN and into SW Va (as far as Abington). They say the scene is secure and there have been no injuries to this point. I know many employees have been (and are continuing) to leave the area.
  4. tnweathernut
    If you had told me we’d be at the end of December facing a very strong SSW, with a split/wind reversal, more forecasts for a continued disturbed strat, a weak El Niño, and a crashing SOI heading into 2019 and we’d be talking about a pattern that isn’t changing on modeling I would have called you crazy. I’m starting to REALLY dislike poorly placed tropical convection
  5. tnweathernut
    What is it they say about the "butterfly effect"......... lol. One thing I don't like is that it appears after the euro being wrong with the very short term MJO forecasts, most of the modeling seems to be correcting to the Euro MJO forecast with regard to a lower amplitude into phase 7.
  6. tnweathernut
    I figure we are going to have to endure a cutter or two before having a chance, but you never know. Snow somewhere in the midsouth around day 10-12 wouldn't be out of the question if we can get the PAC firehose to shut off.
  7. tnweathernut
    It was, I just failed to process your post fully before posting my own thoughts......... At least I know someone was thinking like me. Not sure that's a good thing though. lol
  8. tnweathernut
    Check out the trough over Alaska on the Euro. Really makes a dash to get into the Aleutians from 192-240. Once it makes that trek and pops more ridging in the EPO region it's game on in the not too distant future for someone downstream. This sure looks like it was a big step toward the GEFS and GEPS. We will know soon enough.
  9. tnweathernut
    Progression on the GEPS is almost textbook to deliver cold into the lower 48. We all need to pull for a progression like the one shown at 12z. Say it's going to get cold, eh?
  10. tnweathernut
    To put the SOI in perspective, we only had two days in the month of December (other than the 31st) where the SOI went under 0 (not consecutively). Dec 9th was -3.48 and Dec 26th was -3.32. Both of the next days the SOI rebounded fairly quickly. It's always fascinating to see how things play out. I think I have as much fun looking back as I do looking forward! There seem to be a LOT of good factors pointing to potential moving forward. The one good thing about potential is that it's not all that hard to shovel.
  11. tnweathernut
    The SOI daily contribution is: 2 Jan 2019 1009.71 1007.10 -9.42 This is the third day in a row we have spent in negative territory, Sustained negatives below -7 typically indicate an El Nino episode. If we can hold the SOI below -7 and manage to get the MJO to move along into phase 7 and 8 I will feel better. The MJO part seems to be muddy at the moment, but we should know this part of the equation in the coming days. It appears the ensemble forecasts generally get to a similar spot, but it takes the Euro several days longer to get there. Who knows, maybe the weeklies from Monday will be right? Long story short, if we are talking the difference in a pattern change January 15th vs Jan 20th, I think most on here would take that so long as the pattern finally changes and we end with a few chances for some wintry weather in the mid-south.
  12. tnweathernut
    Let’s stall it next time for a couple of weeks in a “good for winter” phase....
  13. tnweathernut
    Youtube has several videos from January of 1985. Quite the winter for the midsouth, with some brutal arctic temps.
  14. tnweathernut
    Thanks for posting this. What sticks out (at least to me) is the very poor MJO handling in the last several days from the European modeling. Pretty crazy how wrong it has been at VERY short (1-2 day) lead times. It might lend credence to the EPS being dead wrong about our never ending spring(ish) weather. We will know soon enough.
  15. tnweathernut
    Good posts, John. I generally agree we need to keep an eye on the final piece of energy out of the gulf between 120-144. It’s being picked up on all modeling and this is the type of system that will very likely end up northwest of modeling. With the 850 line nearby, we (at least) are in the game for something wintry before transitioning to a new pattern.
  16. tnweathernut
    If there was ever a look that could deliver a strong storm out of the gulf into a deep cold air mass.............that is it.
  17. tnweathernut
    The biggest positive I see is a continuation of low pressures that want to try and track under us. If that remains a winter constant, we likely have an interesting Jan-March coming up.
  18. tnweathernut
    Pretty amazing what deep snow pack can do......... We have a dying air mass and areas with deep snow pack seemed to manage to get down into the low single digits to the mid teens in northeast Tennessee and southwest Virginia. I am always amazed what snow on the ground can do to temps!
  19. tnweathernut
    I noticed that. It was off in Tazewell too, where my in-laws live. Maybe someone can post the final map once noaa revises a finalized map?
  20. tnweathernut
    This should probably go in the obs section, but in later years while searching for this storm i thought it would be appropriate to have the accumulations map so you could not only see the storm discussion, but the map for how the storm turned out.... if mods would prefer to move it, no worries. I just know if I’m looking for this storm in future years I won’t be searching for the obs. haha
  21. tnweathernut
    What a finish in the TN game. When Williams fouled out, I didnt think they had a chance..... I didn’t know Schofield had that kind of offensive game in him, and certainly didn’t think he had game enough to single handedly beat #1 on the road. Great win! This game and the Kansas game will prepare them to be ready come March. This team has both the ability and desire to be great.... and they are really fun to watch.
  22. tnweathernut
    Boone’s Creek on the Jonesborough side we have 8 inches. Congrats to all those that scored some snow. Hopefully the next one will be much more widespread!
  23. tnweathernut
    Where are you located, VolMan? Seems some of those against the mountains have seen less, but those toward Kingsport have seen the heaviest. The models that showed the mountain shadow and the enhancements toward Sullivan seem to have done well.
  24. tnweathernut
    I’d bet a dollar to a donut, @Math/Met is searching for a mountain wave event with the look of the system on the 14th and 15th......
  25. tnweathernut
    The higher the ratio the more fluffy (easy to shovel) snow is. Average rates are around 10:1. 15 or 20:1 is possible when all layers of the atmosphere are very cold. The lower the ratio the heavier the snow. 5:1 to 8:1 is extremely heavy and much harder to shovel having a higher water content. Anything with these ratios where more than 5 to 6 inches falls and there will likely be a lot of downed limbs and power lines. I suspect electric companies will likely be busy with this storm in northeast TN if the forecast pans out.
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