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tnweathernut

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  1. tnweathernut
    12z Euro also very close to a big storm for northeast TN and is a big storm for the NC mountains, SW Va and points northeast......
  2. tnweathernut
    Weak (Miller A) system to our southeast with a robust moisture field is my favorite setup for snow. Usually mutes the dreaded warm nose, and in this particular case with temps about as marginal as they come .....would likely be the best case scenario providing the best chance at something other than rain for the elevated and far eastern areas.
  3. tnweathernut
    Regarding the potential early week system............ all hail the GFS? Maybe it will win this battle, but not the war (later in the week)?
  4. tnweathernut
    I noticed that too. A compromise solution at 500 wouldn't surprise me. The only problem with a compromise would be knowing the surface reflection would be poo poo.
  5. tnweathernut
    Great discussion, guys! I have been super busy, but have really enjoyed following along when time permits. John, I agree, events like this will eventually happen again. Sure looks like old biases may be at play looking at the GFS vs. the EURO from last night. GFS is very progressive at 500 (the surface reflects this too). Just wants to blast everything through the TN Valley and be done with it. The Euro tends to overly amp in the long range, but this seems to be sprouting much closer in time, so does that bias really apply here? Genesis of the trailing frontal (northwest gulf) low in response to the energy at 500 begins shortly after hour 100 (not exactly way out in time). I think this will be a fascinating early season model dual between the new and improved GFS, and the once almighty Euro (snow vs. no snow outcome aside). If the brief west coast ridging can hold on just a bit longer, it should give the energy at 500 more of a chance to dig toward the gulf coast (like the euro at 0z) and develop a southeast storm system. If the Pacific blasts in and collapses the ridging we probably see something closer to the progressive look on the GFS. Fairly minor differences at 500mb (18,000 feet up) between the GFS and Euro, but major differences at the surface where we live. As an aside, I am loving the looks of higher pressures in the NAO region. Feels a bit like finding a unicorn December through the end of February these days.......
  6. tnweathernut
    System in the southwest stays closed and almost stationary as if to say........ woah, good buddy just do your thing. I’ll hang out here for a while”
  7. tnweathernut
    The next piece of energy is robust, but not much separation at 150. Let’s see how the monster vortex in the eastern US tangos with that piece...
  8. tnweathernut
    Mountain snows would be huge if this plays out as shown on the 0z GFS.
  9. tnweathernut
    Crazy. Looks like 1950 all over again, just a bit further north...
  10. tnweathernut
    There is more interaction between the northern branch and southern branch, and with that “dance” a further west solution.
  11. tnweathernut
    I’m just mainly looking for trends at 500. Feels good to be back tracking something with the crew.......
  12. tnweathernut
    That’s bold wording from MRX, for a system this far away. Generally they are extremely conservative, sometimes even as inches of snow are falling around the region.
  13. tnweathernut
    Other than looking great as you mention, I also like the part about moisture gathering again to our SW at the end of the run.........
  14. tnweathernut
    Yeah, lake effect totals would be enormous for some!
  15. tnweathernut
    This could be a bias of the Euro as we watch it roll in. Since their last upgrade it has a tendency to over-intensify storm systems. A further west track as a result (as shown on 12z) makes a lot of sense..... Odds of a Miller A are increasing. Likely wet, but the chances for first flakes for some are not out of the question. At the very least it will probably FEEL like winter as early as next week.
  16. tnweathernut
    But is the atmosphere acting like a La Niña? It seems like the actual pattern has been out of phase with El and La more often than not.
  17. tnweathernut
    Terrible news. Let us know if we can do anything to help........
  18. tnweathernut
    It absolutely was. We saw 2-3" rates for 7+ hours. The forecast that day was laughable as the event unfolded. Looks like the recorded history of the event is also laughable.
  19. tnweathernut
    Guessing the 1998 storm didn't make the list due to a lighter accumulation at the airport. We had over 20 inches at my place in JC. I noticed an article from Bristol where they recorded 8". The only two options are the airport didn't record enough to qualify for their list or the snowfall wasn't properly recorded. Since I know that has been an issue in the past it wouldn't surprise me if the latter is the best option.
  20. tnweathernut
    I think everyone is shooting for Uber white.... kidding aside....Modeling has been rock steady showing a great system for you guys and the meso models are now showing colder thermals. Y’all enjoy, but keep your eyes on the thermals up until the last moment. It wouldn’t be the first time a rug was pulled in the last seconds. Best of luck sent from the other side of the hill.
  21. tnweathernut
    That map I posted for 1960 doesn't really have any reports from your area, but if you guessed based on nearby reports that would have put you in the 30-35" range. I am guessing you were probably higher than that though.....?
  22. tnweathernut
    This is also a great site if you have a few hours to kill. Not all stations reported, but several did. You can find one close to you and search daily data. http://w2.weather.gov/climate/xmacis.php?wfo=mrx
  23. tnweathernut
    1960 is the gold standard for mid-south/southeast/carolina's March snow. It gets talked about a lot and I remember first studying it back when easternwx was around. Here is a 500mb map from the first 1/2 of 1960 as well as the surface temp anomaly for the same period. There are some 500 similarities, but I don't think the cold would have the potential to be as strong. I have also included the snow map I could find. I am sure it doesn't do John's snowfall justice (lol), but it was accurate for "recorded snow in and around the Tri-Cities (snowiest March on record just shy of 28")
  24. tnweathernut
    That's part of what made 1993 so special. Just think of the technology we had back then and to know this system was fairly well forecast from 5 days out while the southeast baked in above normal temps leading up to the event is pretty remarkable. I can't imagine what this board would be like if a system like that started showing up on modeling almost a week out and came to fruition. Pretty sure the servers wouldn't be able to handle it. I was in college at ETSU. I remember the forecast for a heavy snow, but being from Nashville I took a chance and left for spring break to be with family and friends. I left that Friday, the 12th at the same time a buddy of mine at ETSU left to head to Danville, VA. I only saw light snow showers and flurries till late that night when backbuilding FINALLY edged into middle TN (we ended up with 2-3", but I remember drifts over 8'). A couple of weeks later I learned my buddy, who left at the same time, encountered heavy snows heading through SW VA and got stuck between here and home. He said the snow got heavy quick and he ended up spending a good chunk of spring break at a run down motel...
  25. tnweathernut
    Through 45 looks like less interaction between streams and a more positive tilt. I would think less amped and a bit further east with the heavier axis of precip.
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