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tnweathernut

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Everything posted by tnweathernut

  1. tnweathernut
    Haha, sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn't. I thought KY may have a letdown against Missouri. Looks like they built a lead and kind of coasted to a 66-58 win. Did anyone watch the game? I had to get some sleep, but I wonder if the commentators beat them up a bit for how they looked in an 8 point win? It seemed to me the crew calling the TN game beat them up pretty good with how they played in only beating Vandy by 12? TN struggled again on the offensive end, but I was impressed with the effort on the defensive end. I thought TN looked solid last night defending. I believe they will be tough to stop once in the tourney. I think they will be tough to handle for teams that haven't seen them play. Can't wait to see how they finish, where they are seeded, and what their quadrant of the bracket looks like!
  2. tnweathernut
    They very well could have with the football they let them get away with in the first half. My problem was more with how they called the second half. They went from letting them be very aggressive to calling touch fouls. Officiating didn't lose that game for us, but for us to have shot our first FT's with 5 minutes gone in the second half with the aggressiveness KY played with was a bit ridiculous. Either way, it was easily the best game KY has put together all year. Congrats on the win......
  3. tnweathernut
    Kentucky may be peaking too soon, at least that's what I keep telling myself. I think we win when they come to TBA. I'm not sold on LSU. They were almost taken out by a bad Georgia team the other day. Will be interesting to see how the season plays out for all the top teams. Kansas seems to be putting the pieces back together. Duke is beatable (should have gotten beat by Louisville, all they had to do was take care of the basketball and it was a 10+ point win). Too bad that didn't happen. I'd have loved to have watched the fall out from that type of a loss. UT is better than their showing at KY, but it's hard to keep winning in college basketball. It was the perfect storm for UT to take one on the chin with LSU getting lucky in knocking them off at Rupp. They don't lose 2 in a row at home and after what we did to them last year, Cal had them more than ready. We will be ready for them next time. Looking forward to seeing how they respond vs Vandy tonight. Even if we have two more losses the rest of the regular season we likely don't drop below a 3 seed and will be in a good position to make a run in the big dance.
  4. tnweathernut
    So, basically a higher resolution version of the DGEX. That's great for digital snow, not so much for actual snow.
  5. tnweathernut
  6. tnweathernut
    It might be like this year and we might not know what next winter is going to be like until it's almost over. lol I am with you on the needing dry weather front. We definitely need to catch a break from all the juice! Unfortunately, that part looks a given the next 10-14.
  7. tnweathernut
    I have almost gotten to the point I will be skeptical of everything moving forward. Going into this year we had virtually everything pointing to a fantastic mid to late winter. An early SSW with a split and big time wind reversal. LR map after LR map things were looking optimal. Experts almost across the board were laying their chips down for an extended winter stretch. Virtually every index we look at was favorable. Now here we are blaming the MJO for ruining winter for the east and probably not sure of that, even though many (myself included) think it's largely to blame. Even some saying the SSW not only didn't help, but hurt? We just haven't advanced to a point where LR forecasting is anything but an educated guess. We did have a recent winter where LR forecasts were for warmth that never arrived. So I guess it goes both ways, but it drives a person mad trying to figure out what could go wrong. I guess in a nutshell in the south, just about everything can go wrong for snow lovers... lol
  8. tnweathernut
    I believe the general look at 500 was forecast well in advance. I remember a couple of weeks ago thinking the PAC northwest could have a lot of winter if the maps verified. By comparison, it's hard to believe Boston is sitting at 2.3" (or they were several days ago)
  9. tnweathernut
    Maybe next year we get the actual weak Nino and combine it with non-existent solar. I know it's the south and all, but we seem pretty good at going on crappy winter "streaks". Would be nice to work into a 3 of 5 year period where winter slaps us in the face. Might have a better chance of hitting little lotto though.
  10. tnweathernut
    I agree. Just the fact the pattern has shown in the long range and never materialized is a reason to put this winter in the least favorable. The LR has been one big tease for the last 7-8 weeks.
  11. tnweathernut
    speaking as a southerner, you lost me right about .....................here.
  12. tnweathernut
    The problem with his proclamation is people will remember the snow against what he said. He will be viewed as wrong (and likely already is by many that just got snow) regarding no winter in the east through the 28th. You guys get one or two more wintry systems in the next 6-10 and the egg is not only on his face, but so thick he will need a chisel to get it all off. Good luck with that sneaky system for Saturday, maybe you guys can back into one. Pulling for the MA, just to see DT go down in flames. Any snow in Richmond, would be icing on the cake.
  13. tnweathernut
    There's a decent signal on the 12z EPS for a storm out of the gulf in the 7-10. Long way to go to get to that pretty look thrown by the 12z GFS (you know, the model that's so bad they are replacing it?) lol
  14. tnweathernut
    Not sure I'm ready to get reeled back in just yet, but I will say if the blocking in the Atlantic is real and the 50/50 is strong and well placed, these solutions being seen on OP's aren't a lock to move more northwest (as is typical) as we get closer. If the confluence is a touch stronger, one of these systems that likely follows a cutter could be a mid-south/southeast system vs. a midatlantic/northeast system. Still a LONG way out (what hasn't been this winter, right?) but the LR looks in general seem to be progressing the last couple of days and that's a good first step. Pretty sure we will see a few more fantasy snows being thrown by the OP's this week. Devil's advocate - we are working toward a period that is really late in the year for a large part of our forum wrt wintry weather. That of course doesn't take the chances to zero for all of our forum, but we will find ourselves in a race against the clock very soon.
  15. tnweathernut
    Only the NCAA can punish so arbitrarily. The NCAA gave Tennessee's basketball coach a TWO year show cause for lying about a BBQ, but then let North Carolina off without any punishment for the worst academic fraud in college sports history. "The N.C.A.A. did not dispute that the University of North Carolina was guilty of running one of the worst academic fraud schemes in college sports history, involving fake classes that enabled dozens of athletes to gain and maintain their eligibility. In a ruling that caused head-scratching everywhere except Chapel Hill, the N.C.A.A. announced on Friday that it could not punish the university or its athletics program because the “paper” classes were not available exclusively to athletes. Other students at North Carolina had access to the fraudulent classes, too." New York Times
  16. tnweathernut
    Just saw where Kansas guard Vick is taking an immediate leave of absence. First their big guy, then a guard.... not good in Jayhawk land. :-(
  17. tnweathernut
    Good luck against K-State. I don't have a great feeling about Missouri, at least not in the obliterate department. Won't surprise me to see a close game. I think the boys are looking ahead to the weekend game against FL. I also haven't given up on winter, but once we have the first warm spell in February I lose interest in looking at LR maps for winter prospects. I am in the camp that says if we score it's likely to be something that sneaks up on us inside of 5 days.
  18. tnweathernut
    I was thinking the same thing. Need more games like the last to know for sure, but they definitely righted the ship against top 25, TT. I'm also ready for some TN/KY action. Should be a couple of really good games. Plus, playing Texas A&M over the weekend and only getting 4 FT's the entire game was a good tune up for what we normally see inside Rupp. haha
  19. tnweathernut
    Bingo. Unfortunately, we just lost a storm under day 4. It's hard to get excited again when models are showing a pattern that "could" be conducive to a winter system. The next 7 days are going to be pretty boring. Maybe early to mid next week we have something we are watching more intently. I think the period of the 10-20th could certainly produce, just hard to get excited about anything with the way our luck has gone so far. If we had been hitting the snow jackpot regularly this winter I think we'd ALL be tracking the period shown on the GFS and Euro much more intently.
  20. tnweathernut
    Yeah, if you discount the under 200 hour 3-5" snow it shows from eastern Arkansas to Memphis to Nashville to much of southern and SE Kentucky.
  21. tnweathernut
    Certainly possible we go one of two ways to end winter. Will be interesting to see what happens. There are arguments for both camps (warm and cold). Looking at modeling (in general) the look is there for a cold shot with energy underneath around the 8th or so. It’s there on GFS, GFS FV3, and Euro at 12 and 18z. If the NAO isn’t a unicorn, I think we can stumble our way back into a workable pattern.
  22. tnweathernut
    No, I sure don’t think so. In fact if we head where modeling suggests I think the chance for a bigger storm goes way up. Not only that but with a South East Ridge your area may very well do better in the eastern areas. Of course getting modeling to head where it’s been projected has sure been a difficult proposition so far this year.
  23. tnweathernut
    On the plus side, we won’t likely have to endure and cold/snow hurt from the PV either.
  24. tnweathernut
    You are good people AMZ. Don't feel bad, things happen, so no worries.
  25. tnweathernut
    Awesome for you guys!! Local mets are sticking with a changeover here and 1-3 inches, but I just don't see it. It appears there is a downslope element just looking at the obs. Carvers has huge flakes in Kingsport, but from north Johnson City to my office (in Erwin) the temps were 37-39 and plain rain.
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