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tnweathernut

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Everything posted by tnweathernut

  1. tnweathernut
    Just don't start the sentence by telling everyone you know MathMet says a foot is coming....
  2. tnweathernut
    At this point, modeling seems to indicate an opportunity for snow winners, but keeps moving the goal posts around from model to model and from run to run. My guess is (outside of the mountains) we will just end up having to nowcast this one to determine where the lollipops of snow will end up falling. There's a reason they say, upper level low......... weather man's woe.
  3. tnweathernut
    Lots of moving pieces at 500 and no way to nail this down for several more days. One small piece of energy in the right or wrong place can make the difference between something minor or something much more widespread. I think the overall pattern strongly suggests opportunity as we head into next week.
  4. tnweathernut
    GFS Para shows the perils with an ULL and razor thin thermal profiles. We are pretty much rolling the dice. .
  5. tnweathernut
    Now that this system is working into the short range and on multiple models, we probably should start a thread for it. Anyone feeling lucky?
  6. tnweathernut
    Jeff will tell you that's not a likely solution. lol
  7. tnweathernut
    .
  8. tnweathernut
    After taking a look at modeling this AM (OP & Ensembles) it appears the pattern we have all waited for (board wide) is still very much on track to produce numerous systems taking the low road, each with potentially colder air as we go through the next 2-3 weeks, perhaps ending with a truly cold airmass making its way into the lower 48 toward the end of this 2-3 week period. Lots of large scale features seemingly moving in good directions with several systems to track. About all you can ask for, not to mention we are getting this during peak climo ...... and not chasing it, hoping it materializes in mid March.
  9. tnweathernut
    Parts of middle TN might end up in the crosshairs with this system. Definitely one to watch.....
  10. tnweathernut
    Somebody go wake @Carvers Gap up and let him know it wasn’t a dream..... the RGEM just cold smoked his entire county. It looks like the setup is there for a narrow smash job just to the northwest of the 850 track. Predicting that track is notoriously hard on modeling, even short range. I’ve seen 50-75 mile adjustments within the 24-36 hour window many times over the years. There are usually surprises with these types of systems, both good and bad. Will be fascinating to watch this one play out.
  11. tnweathernut
    Exactly. If it shows something good over you from 5-6 days out then you are likely out of luck. Where it is at 18z is likely good for our entire forum...
  12. tnweathernut
    Now THAT (18z gfs) is right where we want it for several more days.. east across the northern gulf then northeast through far south GA and off the east coast.
  13. tnweathernut
    I think we'd all like to see the traditional GFS go progressive and further SE for storm 2. At least when we see this we know the usual correction is coming...
  14. tnweathernut
    You could have stopped here and I'd have been on board. It's a pretty wretched model. Good point on the HUGE adjustments on a recent system. The move it made from having snow here to actually snowing in west Texas to Missouri was a colossal jump.
  15. tnweathernut
    This usually doesn't work out well, but I like your boldness.... haha I never thought we'd work into something this quickly. I am excited to see where the pattern heads and already having multiple periods to track is a great.......
  16. tnweathernut
    What I take from the looks on modeling and ensembles over the last couple of days.......... Many of us are likely to be dog tired after the next 2-3 weeks from tracking multiple systems. Normally I wouldn’t be so bold, but the pattern shown is screaming multiple opportunities. Could we strike out? Sure, this is the Tennessee Valley region. Is it likely? I don’t think so. Buckle up.
  17. tnweathernut
    Good tweet thread here. Thought I’d share.... .
  18. tnweathernut
    I’m not terribly concerned (at this point) about cold air with the 500 pattern projected. I suppose we could strike out over the 7-14 due to a little too much warmth, but it’s not like Canada can’t supply any cold if we pop a flow from our friends to the north. As always, time will tell. .
  19. tnweathernut
    Happy New Year to the guys and gals on the best forum on americanwx. I hope 2021 is a blessed year for you all! I also hope we find all the snow we can handle in the next couple of months! Cheers.......
  20. tnweathernut
    No clue if this pattern comes to fruition as portrayed, but if it does....... it's the type of pattern that can produce snow on snow (i.e. multiple winter events) for someone in the southeast.
  21. tnweathernut
    The massive blocking is beginning to exert itself with these OP runs. Likely too warm for the first system or two, but definitely a trend to be cooler than initially shown. Legit winter threats will emerge if we keep reeling in these looks.
  22. tnweathernut
    Really rare event unfolding thousands of miles away from us. Thanks for sharing, let's see how low she can go!
  23. tnweathernut
    It's a good sign the EPS appears to be speeding up the transition the last several cycles. Maybe we can work into something before the middle of January is past us..........
  24. tnweathernut
    Barnes and company definitely have this program rolling. Love the kids they recruit and looking forward to their development. It's a shame these kids can't play in front of packed crowds at Thompson-Boling. They are good enough to win it all if they keep improving. Team chemistry is through the roof.............
  25. tnweathernut
    Was good here too. I'd definitely be willing to part with your left nut for a repeat......
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