tnweathernut

That's how I take it too. The thing is, at our latitude................ really............. the GFS and GFSv16 is about perfect. Nice vort pass, goes negative in a perfect place, and is moisture laden. If it digs more, the storm is likely bigger, but warm air advection likely makes this a Kentucky to Virginia snow storm vs a Tennessee Valley snow storm.

Will try to show you what I was looking at. It’s closer than I thought when watching it in real time...... at 500. First the GFS at 30, 54, and 66. The vort looks a little more pronounced than on the Euro. Also, you can see the speed of this rascal. By 66 it’s in a great spot for producing precip across TN and the surface shows that as a nice little snow. Now, the Euro at the same times. Very similar placements wrt timing. Maybe a touch sharper on the American modeling which likely accounts for more snow shown. Threat looks legit, congrats to the GFSv16, which has had this for a couple of days now. .

Thanks, PBP's are not near as useful when you can simply throw a GIF. I'm just a relic of the past I suppose. lol

Mostly light rains across Tennessee, but changes to snow across much of east Tennessee. I don't think the snow maps will be pretty, but this is moving toward something for someone in TN.

Don't think this will be anything like the GFS suite, but it's a big step toward it. Just goes to show somewhere in the middle won't work for most. Gets going a little later it looks.

Surface responds between 54 and 60, with precip breaking out across Arkansas in the form of rain and snow north of there. Also much more precip in the deep south. This is definitely going to be more like the GFS

Out to 48, it's TRYING to be better at 500. Energy trying to sharpen a bit in north Texas and western Oklahoma

Out to 30, the energy coming at us is much stronger on the GFS in Idaho vs. the Euro. Yes, Idaho. This is the piece of energy that is set to make it to northeast TN in 42 hours. This thing is SCOOTING! I will say the energy is a tad more prominent than on the 0z Euro. Still doesn't look anything like the American modeling suite.

12z Euro has initialized. We won't have to wait long to see if it's moved in a positive direction. lol

Not sure who is feeling froggy, but we likely need to jump on a last minute thread dedicated to Sunday. Even if it ends up a miss................ the signal is there and growing stronger.

I’d say this is a pretty good signal for a storm. GEFS precip panels for hour 66 and 72 at 12z. I’d expect the Euro to move toward this. Forecasts likely be changing later today. .

Without a doubt! How has everyone down your way recovered since the tornadoes? It seems like eons ago, yet it was only back in March of last year... :-(

If the para is even half right, there will be PLENTY of car washing coming up the next 2-3 weeks.

Definitely not saying this is a battle the v16 will ultimately win. Euro’s resolution is still king. Id probably put the v16’s chance of scoring the victory around 10-15%. Or just above ........ ”so you’re telling me there’s a chance” from Dumb and Dumber.

The 6z GFSv16 is still insistent on showing a snowstorm for the Tennessee Valley on Super Bowl Sunday. Battles between the Euro and GFS at day 3 almost always go to the Euro, but I did note the GFSv16 was scoring better at 500 than the Euro. Because of this, I don’t think we can simply dismiss it. Pretty fascinating short range battle here. I just hope the GFSv16 isn’t bringing a knife to a gunfight. .

the 12z GFSv16 finally updated. It has a light to moderate snow on Super Bowl Sunday across much of the state.

There's no doubt about that. lol Always good to see new newer members posting on these boards. I will say this about it being tough..................... if we saw snow every day I don't think we'd appreciate it near as much when it happened. I absolutely love snow, but have family from Minnesota/Wisconsin. I remember several times in my youth, spending a couple of weeks there at a time in the winter (around Christmas). After being elated the first week or so of having snow, fatigue started setting in wanting to see the grass again. I think it was then I figured out the chase and realizing a snow storm as it was happening was the most special part. Snow just laying on the ground (to me) got old pretty quick. lol

I know you guys are likely tired of chasing the LR, but the 2+ day overruning event toward day 9 would be worth the wait for the deep south into the Carolinas

I'm not sure which models use that data. Wish I had a better understanding.

Just a heads up. Most now know the GFSv16 hasn't updated since 6z yesterday. Looks like they don't yet know when this will resolve. (02 Feb 2021) GFSv16 and HRW FV3 data have been unavailable since 12z due to NCEP data flow problems. We are not aware of an ETA from NCEP.

My office may be closer to 4” than 3”. Instead of 2-3 for Erwin it’s likely closer to 3-4”. Like there, it’s still snowing here also.

1 inch across north Johnson City. Around 2” in parts of south Johnson City and between 3-4” in Unicoi. Also Erwin (city) has between 2 and 3”. Still snowing this AM (9:30) across parts of Washington and Unicoi County. .

Euro ensembles still on board, showing the pattern can produce. This isn't a situation where the OP shows 20" and the ensembles are showing NADA. I'm still in, until i'm out. lol

Just checking on you, BullCityWx....................... making sure you haven't passed out over that way. IMO, pattern recognition says snow on snow might be a possibility somewhere in the southeast.

Not likely, but the first system is within the realm of being believable and is supported by the GEFS. Also, pattern recognition says something similar (snow on snow) is possible. LOTS of time to strike out, hit a homerun, or anything in between.