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tnweathernut

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Everything posted by tnweathernut

  1. tnweathernut
    Looks great at 500, the trough going negative over the southern apps with plenty of cold pouring in!
  2. tnweathernut
    Follow the ensembles right now, not so much the OP runs. I can tell you, in general......... the 12z GEFS looks like a thing of beauty when looking for cold shots and a flow conducive for precip opportunity. Just have to time one up. We may get multiple chances.
  3. tnweathernut
    How do you do at 1950? Most upslope events get really good around 2500........... so just curious. My office in on N Main Avenue, so we don't get in on the elevated fun too often.
  4. tnweathernut
    I think this afternoon it was supposed to fill in and find better snows in northeast TN. Still probably have to get to tonight and hope we keep enough moisture around. I think we will around Erwin to south JC (north and west of that it will be a toss up hoping for renegade snow showers breaking containment). I am guessing roads will be a mess tomorrow morning for anyone with a hint of upslope to their area.
  5. tnweathernut
    You know this about me, but the insurance guy in me doesn't want any part of frigid temps. People's pipes all over the region will be popping off.
  6. tnweathernut
    Actually, Washington County schools are back in person (5 days a week)................... starting tomorrow.
  7. tnweathernut
    Moisture is less deep Monday night, but if the valleys can find some snow bands tomorrow evening and into early Tuesday................... with temps projected in the mid 20s it might look more snowy Tuesday morning than at any point tomorrow with temps tomorrow in the 33-35 range. I almost expect more road problems Tuesday morning vs tomorrow for the valley areas in the WWA. As you say, the mountains are going to get smoked, regardless of what happens below 2500!
  8. tnweathernut
    Interesting. That's really bold from a traditionally conservative entity. Makes me think they are confident of really cold air coming and also confident the storm track stays through the southeast.
  9. tnweathernut
    Thanks for starting this. No doubt some of our mountain chain is going to get white smoked.... It’s funny MRX downplays the valley areas northeast of Knoxville. While I don’t disagree the moisture thins out....... this type of storm evolution with energy left over the apps is notorious for light to occasional moderate snow bands making their way across the area, valleys included. Combine this with temps in the 20s overnight Monday and into Tuesday morning and I almost expect travel issues and school changes here on Tuesday.
  10. tnweathernut
    12z Euro keeps a decent little event going overnight Monday and into Tuesday..... .
  11. tnweathernut
    MRX seemingly overplayed the last system, even when data was indicating reasons to be cautious wrt snow (in east and northeast TN). This may cause them to overreact and be too cautious on the early week snow potential. I realize they have time on their side and it seems minor”ish”, but it’s been really cold leading up to this system .......and although we go warm for the first part, most of what falls after sundown with the upper level support passing almost directly over us Monday night into Tuesday morning could cause many more problems for commuters Tuesday. In short, vs the last system, I think this one has much more potential for impacting travel.
  12. tnweathernut
    Spotter report from my 80 year old dad in Westmoreland in northern middle Tennessee (the man who inspired me to love the weather and especially snow) telling me they have changed over there with some pretty big flakes falling.....
  13. tnweathernut
    At least it's just PRE-squallicane weather...................
  14. tnweathernut
    Love the animation and the thread name. The snow under some of those bands look convective..... wouldn't at all be surprised to see white-out conditions happen under some of those. I remember a couple of these events growing up, where you'd go from sun or moon peeking through clouds to heavy snow and then back to sun or moon. They covered a bare ground in just a couple of minutes. Hope we see some of these convective cells, as portrayed.
  15. tnweathernut
    Lots or ridging in southern Canada to Greenland. Hopefully this will help us. I think it's pretty much a lock for snow showers from the system Saturday. The first system sets up a brief 50/50, so maybe this will also keep the second system far enough south to bring some energy through the TN Valley. It might be wise to start a thread for the Saturday deal. May even want to lump early week in with it since these events look relatively minor and both northern stream dominant. This way, we can keep the longer range discussion separate. Anyone feeling lucky?
  16. tnweathernut
    I feel much the same way. Finding snow in the south is almost like work as you learn more about the atmosphere. It was much simpler when I was a kid, before weather models...... All I had to look at was dad's electronic (heath kit) weather station and the sky outside. It had barometer, wind speed, wind direction, temperature, dew point and wind chill read outs. I am interested in the snow shower activity showing on modeling. The piece of energy rotating through looks good for fairly wide-spread snow showers. Then we wait to see how much cold we can keep for the following week as moisture builds to our south. At the very least this winter has been completely different than last winter.
  17. tnweathernut
    I'm pulling for this timeframe to produce. Looks like it has potential. Biggest inhibitor would be the hyper-active northern stream shearing out the southern stream, again. Hope we can get enough separation between vorts in the northern stream to let the southern stream amplify or hold together as a weaker system with plentiful moisture. It's likely way too much to ask a lone northern stream piece to dive into the backside of our southern stream at just the right spot.
  18. tnweathernut
    Agree. Just hope it’s got a leg up in figuring out where we go down the road.
  19. tnweathernut
    Just minor differences. Still a good look for you guys out that way... the surface maps suggest a classic (though weakening) northwest snow shield. Reasonable when looking at 500. .
  20. tnweathernut
    Cheering for you guys to our southwest.... hope you score!
  21. tnweathernut
    With lows generally in the 20's and daytime highs in the mid 30's to around 40 from now until the system comes in I agree we will need to watch it. If the timing can speed up a 1/2 day there would likely be morning road issues somewhere in Tennessee (most likely west)............ not to mention the possible issues in northern MS and possibly AL where heavier precip will be closer in proximity.
  22. tnweathernut
    Yeah, definitely don't want to come across as saying it's not happening. My post was regarding Tennesseans. Just when looking at everything there doesn't appear to be much of a chance for anything greater than a possible 1-2, type of event once to Tennessee. Certainly for our brothers and sisters just south of the TN border in northern MS and northern AL I'd be keeping a much more watchful eye on this one. Chances for a 3-6" type system may set up somewhere in their location.
  23. tnweathernut
    1/2 inch in north JC (Boones Creek exit) before the daytime zapped it.
  24. tnweathernut
    500mb level looks like a mess. the vort is shearing out and the time of day is the worst possible arrival (afternoon) for what light precip makes it up this way. All modeling shows 500 going to crap, so I'd set expectations low and if you see a light snow event consider yourself lucky! Just my two cents.
  25. tnweathernut
    That’s awesome, Blue Moon.... enjoy!
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