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tnweathernut

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Everything posted by tnweathernut

  1. tnweathernut
    The biggest unknown (i.e. wildcard) IMO is the energy traversing the northern gulf of Mexico around days 6-8 and how it interacts with the northern stream energy once near/off the SE coast. The modeling is keying on a piece of southern energy being captured around FL to off the east coast and pulled northward . IF (big if, but time for modeling to miss significantly for better or worse) the piece of energy captured is in the northern gulf vs the FL/SE coastline, it changes how things play out. As shown on the CMC and Euro, the wavelengths are just a bit off.......... but it's close enough to keep me interested. Also, like mentioned........... there's possibly an imbedded northern stream piece of energy somewhere that may show up once the cold is established.
  2. tnweathernut
    I kinda hope that DOESN'T come down the front range of the Rockies............ eek.
  3. tnweathernut
    Best wishes for better health in the year to come. Glad to have you back.
  4. tnweathernut
    The pattern as shown would likely be a better one for you sooner than for the plateau and points east in TN. This is a lot of speculation of course and is based on how similar patterns have behaved, but a pattern like the one shown will usually hit areas from Arkansas to west (and possibly middle) Tennessee before our area. As the boundary presses south and east we'd wait for a follower to have our fun. If the pattern fully matures as shown on the ensembles, it wouldn't surprise me to see a larger part of Tennessee have a winter opportunity. I guess what I'm saying in a nutshell is you could potentially have fun toward the front end of the pattern change and also other opportunities as the pattern matures, before the pattern shown runs out of gas and then we all wait for the next iteration of a pattern that could produce a winter system for the southeast. I grew up in Gallatin, so living northwest of Nashville puts you in a good spot as compared to areas to your south and east.
  5. tnweathernut
    Just glancing at the GEFS out through 300.................... on TT. Pattern looks good to possibly great, although that doesn't mean we have to score here in the Tennessee Valley. Near perfect patterns can have misses. It's something we do very well......... Massive west based -NAO will likely linger a bit more than shown (LOVE the look of the highest heights centered around Baffin Bay - it's a good location for our area if you want the possibility of winter). The move to a -EPO, -AO and +PNA as the pattern progresses makes sense given what I'm seeing. This could introduce cross polar flow at some point. What we know at this point is the likelihood of a winter event in the southeast is on the rise. Figuring out which threat may prompt a dedicated thread is still up for debate. I'm just looking forward to having something to track. That said, I don't want any part of an ice storm.
  6. tnweathernut
    The evolution of the blocking on the 6z GFS is one of the most extreme events I have seen at 500 since I started following modeling.
  7. tnweathernut
    The energy dives in and is negatively tilted (versus not on the last run) over the central TN valley as compared to the prior run. LONG way to go at 168 hours out....
  8. tnweathernut
    Let's get this party bus rolling. At the very least it might roll in the mountains.
  9. tnweathernut
    I wasn't going to say anything............. lol Hope everyone has been doing well. Looking forward to the changing seasons.
  10. tnweathernut
    It does me too, but for the midatlantic and northeast............. unfortunately! :-(
  11. tnweathernut
    I noticed that. At 500 it looked much more consolidated. I was a bit confused to finally switch to the surface and see multiple areas trying to develop low pressure.
  12. tnweathernut
    We need a quicker phase further southwest. Looks like what becomes the primary energy is off the east coast and it gets going a little late. Still a BIG storm and the upper MA to the northeast would get raked. Just nice to see a big storm showing on the east coast. Hope the individuals show the potential there for a quicker, further southwest phase.
  13. tnweathernut
    Canadian vaporizes a nice piece of energy in the southern branch. From closed to pretty much gone in less than 24 hours. Will need to watch this one if we have a closed piece of energy at 500 in central Texas.
  14. tnweathernut
    Lows around the lakes are no bueno and the best way to wreck marginal thermals. I feel like it's only showing snow because of the time of arrival in the early AM hours. That said, it's nice to see blue on the map. And the follow up bomb is pretty. We might have to go find people in eastern NC if that happened. lol
  15. tnweathernut
    At least for east TN, this one has quite a bit more potential than the last. Cold air already in place. Overrunning to Miller A vs Miller B into a marginal airmass, etc…..
  16. tnweathernut
    Notoriously conservative……. 5+ days away.
  17. tnweathernut
    Anytime there is a handoff, primary to secondary and a funky 850 evolution, you can almost bank on busts (both good and bad), IMO.
  18. tnweathernut
    I thought it looked that way also. I mentioned the interaction with the energy diving in behind yesterday and thought it was the problem in pulling the 850, or a piece of it, further north into the valley. It really hurts not having a strong anchored high sprawled from northern Missouri to the Mid Atlantic.
  19. tnweathernut
    I don’t think I have ever seen a Euro ensemble run under day 4 with more than 4” across the entire state.
  20. tnweathernut
    I can't say I have ever seen a tightly wrapped 850 in east central Alabama suddenly go all kidney bean look and barf all over east TN, but I think the energy behind it is interacting with it and causing it to pull more north.
  21. tnweathernut
    fixed it for you.
  22. tnweathernut
    Good post. I do this often and IMO it's probably the most important feature to key on if you want to find where snow is likely.
  23. tnweathernut
    UK has been remarkably consistent showing a strong cutoff. No clue if it's onto something or just on something.
  24. tnweathernut
    Can anyone name a storm that dropped a foot on Chattanooga that went ice from Knoxville to Johnson City? I’m not sure one exists…….
  25. tnweathernut
    Jeff says toss in 3, 2, 1……….
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