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tnweathernut

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Everything posted by tnweathernut

  1. tnweathernut
    The evolution of the blocking on the 6z GFS is one of the most extreme events I have seen at 500 since I started following modeling.
  2. tnweathernut
    The energy dives in and is negatively tilted (versus not on the last run) over the central TN valley as compared to the prior run. LONG way to go at 168 hours out....
  3. tnweathernut
    Let's get this party bus rolling. At the very least it might roll in the mountains.
  4. tnweathernut
    I wasn't going to say anything............. lol Hope everyone has been doing well. Looking forward to the changing seasons.
  5. tnweathernut
    It does me too, but for the midatlantic and northeast............. unfortunately! :-(
  6. tnweathernut
    I noticed that. At 500 it looked much more consolidated. I was a bit confused to finally switch to the surface and see multiple areas trying to develop low pressure.
  7. tnweathernut
    We need a quicker phase further southwest. Looks like what becomes the primary energy is off the east coast and it gets going a little late. Still a BIG storm and the upper MA to the northeast would get raked. Just nice to see a big storm showing on the east coast. Hope the individuals show the potential there for a quicker, further southwest phase.
  8. tnweathernut
    Canadian vaporizes a nice piece of energy in the southern branch. From closed to pretty much gone in less than 24 hours. Will need to watch this one if we have a closed piece of energy at 500 in central Texas.
  9. tnweathernut
    Lows around the lakes are no bueno and the best way to wreck marginal thermals. I feel like it's only showing snow because of the time of arrival in the early AM hours. That said, it's nice to see blue on the map. And the follow up bomb is pretty. We might have to go find people in eastern NC if that happened. lol
  10. tnweathernut
    At least for east TN, this one has quite a bit more potential than the last. Cold air already in place. Overrunning to Miller A vs Miller B into a marginal airmass, etc…..
  11. tnweathernut
    Notoriously conservative……. 5+ days away.
  12. tnweathernut
    Anytime there is a handoff, primary to secondary and a funky 850 evolution, you can almost bank on busts (both good and bad), IMO.
  13. tnweathernut
    I thought it looked that way also. I mentioned the interaction with the energy diving in behind yesterday and thought it was the problem in pulling the 850, or a piece of it, further north into the valley. It really hurts not having a strong anchored high sprawled from northern Missouri to the Mid Atlantic.
  14. tnweathernut
    I don’t think I have ever seen a Euro ensemble run under day 4 with more than 4” across the entire state.
  15. tnweathernut
    I can't say I have ever seen a tightly wrapped 850 in east central Alabama suddenly go all kidney bean look and barf all over east TN, but I think the energy behind it is interacting with it and causing it to pull more north.
  16. tnweathernut
    fixed it for you.
  17. tnweathernut
    Good post. I do this often and IMO it's probably the most important feature to key on if you want to find where snow is likely.
  18. tnweathernut
    UK has been remarkably consistent showing a strong cutoff. No clue if it's onto something or just on something.
  19. tnweathernut
    Can anyone name a storm that dropped a foot on Chattanooga that went ice from Knoxville to Johnson City? I’m not sure one exists…….
  20. tnweathernut
    Jeff says toss in 3, 2, 1……….
  21. tnweathernut
    I should change my post, appears they officially recorded 6.3" of snow. I don't remember the last time there were 2 six inch snows in one winter either. Can't find an official measurement for January 3rd, but they received between 1 and 2.9" across the city that day. Quite the winter run for our friends in the mid state!
  22. tnweathernut
    I am not sure I remember a year when Nashville recorded two 7+" snows. If it happened, was probably back in the 1800s. Chattanooga snow hole checks out, as do the downslope areas coming up the valley. Now if it were only 24 hours away.
  23. tnweathernut
    Maybe your second batter will do better, but knowing the plight of Chattanooga..... I won't hold my breath.
  24. tnweathernut
    Used to be when the Euro and UK were in lockstep with each other 3-4 days out you could go ahead and dust off your snow shovel.
  25. tnweathernut
    It's obvious there are two camps this am, but the ensembles tells me there's a great degree of uncertainty between those two camps at this point. As long as you set your expectation level low, it's pretty easy to take the swings (or in this case, Sherman's march to the northwest). Just a hunch, but I think the trend stops at 12z and moves back toward something weaker as shown on the 6z Euro.
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