tnweathernut

Broken clock syndrome? lol

Would imply an almost perfect storm track for mid south snows too, IMO. I wonder if it (CFSv2 control) has recovered from its decade long stint in rehab?

12z CMC today almost looks like the Christmas setup last year, at least at first glance anyway.

Good discussion, guys. Also, Merry Christmas…..We are going to need to need to see the displacement of the AH modeled under hour 180 to give me confidence in it happening. It definitely makes sense to see it, but it could be rushed. Hope the models are onto something and not just on something.

Not at all, everyone is welcome here. Appreciate the comments. I grew up near Nashville. I have family from northwest Wisconsin. Spent a lot of mid December to early January’s there as a kid (dad was a school teacher). Being from middle TN heading to snow was always exciting. By the time we left I was always ready to come back to Tennessee. For me, snow loses its luster when it’s there all the time. I genuinely enjoy the tracking as much as the event, and seeing it fall from the sky is always magical for me. Once it’s on the ground I’m ready for the next one, which in the south is never guaranteed.

I’m not sure why anyone in the southeast/mid south would have winter concerns on Dec 21st? I guess some people lean optimistic and some lean pessimistic, so to each their own. Worrying about winter, before Christmas, isn’t even on my radar.

I told a buddy, they won’t shoot as bad as they did against Villanova the rest of the year. Played much better against NC. They should be much better late in the year and I can easily see them as a sweet 16 type team.

Generally, in the winter………. We are screwed. lol At our latitude we typically look for the 2-3 day period in time where it all comes together just right. Then when snow is probable, we over analyze each model run, looking for the level of the atmosphere which will screw us by being +1 and throwing ZR while those just north of us see most of the snow. Such is life in the south. I say all that to say this. There’s always something that can screw us, but even bad winters will usually find a way to throw a bone or two. Just have to get lucky when it does.

I know we texted about this, but congrats. Quite an experience for those kids and parents. I had a high school friend also there sharing video of the snow falling. They were there for a soccer tournament. She was quite happy when those in control cancelled the Sunday portion of the event.

True, lol. I will offer up a second rule. You don't have to be the fastest, but you sure better not be the slowest..........

Agree, but I reserve this designation for October to early November snows, not late November and early December. Glad to be looking and trying to find winter again. Hope everyone has been doing well.

For Feb, March, and April phase 8 is generally correlated to average temps in the TN Valley, but colder than average as you head toward the east coast. Phases 1, 2, and even 3... are generally correlated to colder than normal in the TN Valley region for FMA.

It never made sense to me seeing modeling send a strong system through middle Tennessee only to have the boundary come west for a system just a couple of days later. That seems to have been an error. Biggest question is how close to reality is it now? More changes incoming, IMO. A front end thump is possible for many in east Tennessee (outside Chattanooga of course). I didn't think that was possible just a day or two ago.

Just once, I'd like to see a clean surface and 850 low pass. Seems almost impossible to not send energy into east TN that wrecks the thermals. I appreciate @Carvers Gap for trying to will a winter threat to our area over the last couple of days. lol

This is AWESOME. Happy for you guys out in far west TN. Hope middle can realize more sleet than ZR, but not looking good on that front ATM.

It’s not good for anyone from the eastern valley to northeast TN. Great for west and much of middle. Likely to be a storm to remember out that way. Enjoy!

Looks very similar to the 12z euro at the surface. That's a heck of a wedge (all the way back into northeast Alabama). Don't see that depicted every day!

We need something to lock the cold air in place. I don't see that when looking at 500. It's crazy seeing a storm cut north into a massive high, but when looking at 500mb it doesn't seem impossible. In fact, where it goes looks more likely than solutions further south and east. As @Carvers Gap mentioned, it might be hard for the cold air to scour quickly enough to avoid problems early week (even in east TN), but the environment would warm quickly and change us from frozen to liquid up this way. Further west in west and middle Tennessee, it might not ever stop throwing ZR in west TN, and the central plains might be nicknamed the new frozen tundra of the lower 48.

I feel we have had a good winter. Any time you can score a Christmas snow it automatically becomes at least ............ good! Then, we have had a couple of minor snows as well. All in all it's felt MUCH closer to what I remember winter being when I was a kid. Looking forward, I'm a bit of a pessimist for northeast TN this AM. I thought the very cold air would have an easier time pressing more east vs. south. Up here, we can hope the SE ridge doesn't flex and continues to be overdone on modeling when looking at next week. As a side note, I have gotten to the point where I enjoy hunting 6-12 inch snows more than nickel and dime events. I know I can go to the mountains to see them, but nothing like a snow in your back yard. Back in the 90's (considered a blazing hot decade and relatively snowless) I got to experience 2 separate 12 inch snows, and just missed the other (blizzard of 93, left JC to go home - Gallatin - for spring break). I'm not sure what changed since then, but we have managed to elude the 12 inch mark since 1998...... where I live. Seems we are well over-due, so maybe we find a big one before this year is done? At any rate, it looks golden for winter weather in west and parts of middle TN, which is awesome to see!

Vanishes is probably a poor choice of words. It does appear it is projected to re-strengthen down the line, although nothing close to what we are coming out of. The GFS seems to move toward a thumb ridge of sorts around this time in central Canada. That might help, but the NAO as a whole definitely seems to wane for a period early next week. Probably doesn't take west and middle TN out of the winter crosshairs though. Further east, I see it as a problem.

I am not so sure on this. It seems we have had GREAT blocking for a while now, but at the time when the air is coldest our blocking vanishes. The storms next week may well correct north and/or west. I still think middle and especially west Tennessee have a LOT of winter coming at them the next 7-10 days. Hope it provides a memorable period for you guys out that way.....

I’m always pleased to see other areas of our forum score, but I’m not sure I’d wish a destructive ice storm on anyone! Good luck out that way with this one. Hopefully, your next chance early next week is more snow than ice!

Yeah, I was just mentioning to @Carvers Gap how I thought there's virtually no way what the 12z euro shows at 500 actually happens after 72-96. i'd say the potential cold press in the near/mid term is legit and the chances for ice that come along with it. Toward late next and weekend I have a big problem with how this model run of the euro plays out at 500. Way too many intricate interactions happening to play out this way. Guess we will see.

It will be interesting to see if we can continue this trend. If we do this weekend should be fun.

Could well be the Euro is trolling....... lol One thing I will note on the 12z Euro. I really don't like this interaction early on with the PV in Canada. It's been on this for several days now and looks much closer to what is happening vs. the American modeling from 3 days ago. Not sure what that means down the line, guess we will have to see how this plays out down the line.