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tnweathernut

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  1. tnweathernut
    ICON spreading the overrunning love here at 0z
  2. tnweathernut
    Long duration event in east TN. Likely 2-3 more hours of snow left to go past 84
  3. tnweathernut
    At least there’s a model for everyone in the state tonight….
  4. tnweathernut
    Gong to be a bunch of nervous people in here waiting for the rest of 0z to come in. Middle and west TN, especially north of 40 looking good with the 0z NAM
  5. tnweathernut
    Yeah, I noticed that. My downslope city comment was mostly in jest, but it’s always in the back of my mind. It’s been showing on models on and off all day. The two things we do extremely well up here are dryslots and downslope.
  6. tnweathernut
    It looks like you guys/gals down around Knoxville have a GREAT shot with this one. Should be fairly widespread. This track has already been more fun than anything we got a look at last year.
  7. tnweathernut
    Except for the Johnson City area. We are the Chattanooga of northeast TN. I'm going to lobby the leaders of our city to change our name to "Downslope" City. lol
  8. tnweathernut
    Just trying to get everyone's attention in advance. "mainly in the higher elevations" is a very safe phrase to use. JMO. lol
  9. tnweathernut
    Phone has been ringing all day here. About 75% of them have been to file a claim. I need a vacation.
  10. tnweathernut
    I agree with this and have mentioned it several times. Modeling doesn't do well showing overrunning precip. Seems they are echoing that sentiment with their last sentence.
  11. tnweathernut
    I don't have much confidence in it being consistent like it used to be, but I agree. I definitely want it on board!
  12. tnweathernut
    Definitely perplexing. The Euro (before their changes a while back) was easily the best model for north america at day 5-7 and it usually wasn't close. Maybe their changes have helped their forecasting in Europe, but it's been woefully inconsistent here where we need it. lol
  13. tnweathernut
    I usually take away the two biggest and the two smallest and then take the average from the remaining.
  14. tnweathernut
    Just looking at the UK model. It's been pretty consistent regarding the snow axis the last three runs. Nice battle between the American modeling with the snow axis further southeast and the UK with the snow axis further northwest.
  15. tnweathernut
    Looking like kids are likely going to miss quite a bit of school the next two weeks.
  16. tnweathernut
    All kidding aside, i think the flow could certainly throw a clipper event this way. In fact, I'd almost expect it following the event early next week.
  17. tnweathernut
    At least we know the Euro ensembles would almost have to be better. lol
  18. tnweathernut
    Another benefit for modeling, and a reason to start centering around a general solution we can have some confidence in……….is the big wrapped up storm for tomorrow is pretty consistent among modeling now.
  19. tnweathernut
    If we continue heading this direction….. This could trend to a two part snow storm for some (maybe widespread). Overrunning followed by the main course. I won’t be surprised to see an overachiever with the overrunning….
  20. tnweathernut
    Long fetch WSW winds will be conducive to overrunning. Models don’t typically handle it well either.
  21. tnweathernut
    Apparently, you don't want to be a top 5 team playing this week. 1 and 2 fell yesterday. TN getting whipped at half. Looks like Kansas is going to have to bring home a win for the top 5 crew.
  22. tnweathernut
    Someone needs to start a thread for this system so we can have somewhere to track it or kill it off....... lol The NWS offices are talking about it, so makes sense to pull the trigger.
  23. tnweathernut
    Only caution would be this isn't a full gulf tap with a strong low. It's an overrunning look. I have no clue if it makes a difference how the Euro handles QPF, but it's a different setup for sure .
  24. tnweathernut
    I think until we get superstorm number two out of the way, we won't really have a good handle for what is to follow. I also think the chances for something wintry in the week after superstorm number two is more likely than not. JMO, will be fascinating to watch it play out.
  25. tnweathernut
    The precip panels on the GEFS have also been showing another system during that time frame......... pretty consistently.
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