tnweathernut

If we can’t score with this pattern at 500mb in the heart of winter, when can we? Still 10 days out, but……….Trends for this general look across ALL modeling has only been strengthening favorably the last 5 days in every area (PNA, AO, NAO, 50/50) & across every model (GFS, GGEM, EPS). You take this look in the mid south/deep south and Carolinas all day every day and twice on Sunday. We may get to roll the dice a few times. Just have to hope we don’t roll snake eyes. JMO

A lot of times I won’t even pay much attention to the surface this far out, although I do like to see the monster snow maps. The kid inside never leaves.

At the end of the day, we will likely need to see the whites of the eyes of storm one before we know what real chances we may or may not have with the main event. Good pattern coming up, many ways to miss, but a really decent chance to score somewhere along the way. Many years we won’t even have the potential currently showing. For now just sit back and enjoy the occasional DGEX like OP run here and there being spit out.

I remembered it as 8-10” with a brief break, followed by another 8-10” in JC. I didn’t measure through my college years, but it was as much snow as i had ever seen and it stuck around for as long as any snow in my 32 years in the TriCities Region.

I’m pulling for Miami’s equal chances…….. lol

.

.

Systems all year have been trending south and east. Let's see what happens when we need it most. lol

For the sake of your (and everyone else’s) property insurance rates, we better hope we get a few tranquil years in a row…. Already seeing 20-35% increases this year, with more likely on the way in the years to come because of the last 3+ years.

Not trying to be a wet blanket, but does anyone remember the year where there was almost complete agreement we were headed toward a great pattern. Almost all ensembles were pointing toward it, and I think we were fringe OP range. Then, a SSW occurred and modeling did a 180. I don't remember the year, but I remember having a very different view of SSW's the year that happened.

I hope all other SEC schools will join the lawsuit with TN and VA. It's time to disband the NCAA. I'd equate it to conservatives being targeted in politics while certain liberals get a total pass. Anyone remember the NC academic scandal, LSU's Will Wade being caught on tape paying players before NIL, AL covering up drug/gun incidents, paying players, etc...., The NCAA acting on transfers before the portal in less than a week while sitting on others for months. The list goes on and on. It's time they either go or be cut down to size.

I was very frustrated watching the game, and not just because I am a Tennessee fan. The amount of aggression they allowed SC in the second half while calling numerous touch fouls on us early changed the complexion of the game, IMO. I will say even with that against them if TN simply hits layups and FT's, they win by 10. Their D was good enough to win that game 99 out of 100 times. TN has shooters. It's inconceivable to me they shoot that poorly from 3 in their home gym.

That run ended with a raging snowstorm in northern Mexico............. lol One word summarizes the direction we are heading - "potential"

JMO, but I think he's reaching even calling locations for a snow storm this far in advance. He's good, but I generally don't listen to him for our area (and especially the microclimate known as northeast TN). The biggest problem we will have this side of the apps is cold air. Would be incredibly rare to have cold "enough" air come down through the lakes and spill west of the apps. Cold air damming is a distinct possibility for our friends on the other side of the mountains. I think if this snow storm belongs to anyone, it's probably those guys (NC/VA).

This will work……..

I put this in the wrong thread and just wanted to move it to the correct thread.... Congrats to everyone who saw a fantastic snow!! This one wasn’t what some of us wanted, but it’s always fascinating to track and see what goes right vs what goes wrong and which models handle things the best. Those models showing warming banked up against the west side of apps were correct, even into much of Washington County. The HRRR and RAP did well. The ARW never found the warm layer and was the most wrong, IMO. Of course the globals in close were in the ARW boat from within 48 hours, showing the NE TN getting hammered. This is to be expected for global models. They just don’t have the resolution needed to score a victory. The RGEM also struggled, and while showing some of the warming, didn’t have it correct as far away from the mountains as what verefied. In JC we switched back and forth almost all day after a good start to the system. We had a heavy dusting and roads were covered by lunch. Then we flipped to heavy rain and back and forth between rain and snow until around 4:30-5:00. We managed about 3” of slop with heavier bands into the evening, but didn’t make it to below freezing until early this morning. When I went to work we had freezing drizzle and most of what fell on the roads had largely melted. I live north and west of Johnson City proper, and thought I was far enough away from the mountains I could stay all snow. Although I didn’t get shut out, I relearned a lesson I already knew. Never count out thermal profile problems in northeast TN.

Amazing!

Not my picture but summarizes my feelings well regarding the entire day today where rain has been occurring or mixing in.

Not sure that was all it was. That didn’t help. Timing for us has been terrible. We did make it to the upper 20s around our region by daybreak. Just couldn’t stay there with the warming of the day and a slight downslope off the mountains. I didn’t think it would happen, but remember leaving a post saying I never totally discount it around here.

Except up here in JC where it’s raining. lol

Changed over to rain currently in/around Gray and Boones Creek. Still snowing at the office in Erwin, but there's definitely a battle going on upstairs.

Agree. It's a battle. Maybe the ARW can score a victory over all the other short range modeling.

Flipped to big flakes, light to moderate snow in Erwin (city). There's a battle going on.

There's a battle going on in Unicoi County. Here in town we are alternating between larger and smaller dendrites. I hope this isn't the beginning of a mix or change over, but it's possible.

I'm wanting to get through what is to be the heaviest part of the storm before I do my post-mortem and diagnose winners and losers in the modeling department. Next 6-12 hours will tell the story, but that's just me.