tnweathernut

Just popping in to say we won't hit 1 out of 100 long lead winter events, but you can probably bank on having 5X better odds for the 300 hour 12z GFS severe event it's throwing at us for the 29th of Jan. Goofy usually backs into 1 out of 20 events in that regard, even when the first 180 hours are beyond screwed up and totally wrong. lol

If it's still there on the EURO AI at 0z and also still there on the Canadian there is probably a reason for a thread for the Sunday system, IMO. Especially if one more model jumps on board (i.e. ICON, GFS, EURO). In addition to the AI and GEM, there are hints of it on the normally biased progressive modeling and we are working our way under hour 96. JMO

"Past climate data shows that temperatures this cold only happen about once every 2 to 3 years in the area." Am i mistaken, or will we have we had Cold Weather Advisory criteria for 3 STRAIGHT years if next weeks cold comes to pass?

Fixed it for them ....

It's probably the second best thing northeast TN excels with. The first is dryslots and downsloping. haha

The ultimate ultimate slap in the face (in addition to the above) would be 72-96 straight hours of below freezing cold with some below zero stuff, only to warm up and rain 24 hours later. lol

Would be a kick in the pants to see so many underperform on the last storm and then watch areas of the deep south find a foot plus next week while we see flurries and pipe busting cold. lol Kidding aside, my money is on a trough that is further west and a track that adjusts further north and west with time also. The GEFS seems to be hinting at this the last several runs. I guess time will tell.

The AI has been all over GA low development Sunday across GA on the tail end of the cold front for a couple of days now. VERY consistent from what I have seen. Doesn't mean it has to happen, but I've been intrigued by its consistency since it's a sneaky little 2-4 or 3-6 potential snow system for east TN that's now working inside of day 4ish.

Was just about to say something similar. A high impact event is becoming more likely. Figuring out where (assuming things continue to progress toward an event) will cause all kinds of headaches the next several days, but ensembles will be what I'm looking at the most.

Some mets were on it around a week out. Many laughed at them. They certainly didn't have anything close to them modeling we have now, but the now archaic model(s) they had locked in early and didn't waver a lot. It was called the storm of the century, but was also probably the best forecast system of that century........ There was a northwest shift that happened that screwed many in the Carolinas. James Spann (Birmingham met) has several good videos that covered the system as it was happening on YouTube.

I will note this storm underperformed in a lot of areas in TN, even though most in the state saw at least an inch of snow. Impressive because of the amount of land blanketed by snow in TN, KY, MS, AL, GA and VA. Widespread yes! Mid-south mauler, no. Which model was the best from 3-4 days out? I’d say the regular Euro.

You ended up doing better than me.. lol. I came in just a hair under 2 at 1.75” It’s my personal opinion, but I think the dryslot was enhanced by downsloping winds, at least down this way and across a part of the TRI region. We got issues, but fortunately the Eastman’s bubble isn’t one of them……... lol

Where is @Hurricane? Looks to be ripping down his way. Hopefully he is able to enjoy it before any dry air works in.

Probably a letdown because it was being built up for much more. Getting 2.5" of snow in middle Tennessee, south of Nashville is pretty good. Go find Cantore and blame that rascal.

Point and click took me down to 1-2". Probably means Hurricane is looking for his bathing suit. lol

I know. I'm still working on trying to get to a half inch...... lol

Looks like flakes are falling above 2500, ceilings are definitely lowering.

Very "sciency". I like it.

The RAP is only one letter off from CRAP. Just putting that out there. Latest run has 1 inch of snow over @Carvers Gapalready. Guessing his ground is bare.

Hang in there Bearman, praying for a smooth procedure and recovery! How did the northeast TN foothill guys go to bed finally gaining the NAM and then wake up to not only a downslope message, but a mountain wave event with 45 mph south winds predicted? lol

Good to see you back, @PowellVolz!

What I take from it is the NAM is no longer on an island on its own. It has support from the HRRR - obviously not HRRRs wheelhouse here, but no warm and fuzzies from it.

Finger = Foothills. Wretched little devil……..

Just look for Jeff’s map a little ways back. Find the “finger”. lol

I hope the clouds can shoot better than Tennessee shot against Florida a couple of nights ago. Watching that game felt a lot like sitting at 46 degrees under sprinkles and knowing 8 miles to your northwest it's ripping fatties and 31 degrees.