tnweathernut
-
Posts
4,649 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Profiles
Blogs
Forums
American Weather
Media Demo
Store
Gallery
Everything posted by tnweathernut
-
Canadian vaporizes a nice piece of energy in the southern branch. From closed to pretty much gone in less than 24 hours. Will need to watch this one if we have a closed piece of energy at 500 in central Texas.
-
Lows around the lakes are no bueno and the best way to wreck marginal thermals. I feel like it's only showing snow because of the time of arrival in the early AM hours. That said, it's nice to see blue on the map. And the follow up bomb is pretty. We might have to go find people in eastern NC if that happened. lol
-
At least for east TN, this one has quite a bit more potential than the last. Cold air already in place. Overrunning to Miller A vs Miller B into a marginal airmass, etc…..
-
Notoriously conservative……. 5+ days away.
-
Anytime there is a handoff, primary to secondary and a funky 850 evolution, you can almost bank on busts (both good and bad), IMO.
-
I thought it looked that way also. I mentioned the interaction with the energy diving in behind yesterday and thought it was the problem in pulling the 850, or a piece of it, further north into the valley. It really hurts not having a strong anchored high sprawled from northern Missouri to the Mid Atlantic.
-
I don’t think I have ever seen a Euro ensemble run under day 4 with more than 4” across the entire state.
-
I can't say I have ever seen a tightly wrapped 850 in east central Alabama suddenly go all kidney bean look and barf all over east TN, but I think the energy behind it is interacting with it and causing it to pull more north.
-
fixed it for you.
-
Good post. I do this often and IMO it's probably the most important feature to key on if you want to find where snow is likely.
-
UK has been remarkably consistent showing a strong cutoff. No clue if it's onto something or just on something.
-
Can anyone name a storm that dropped a foot on Chattanooga that went ice from Knoxville to Johnson City? I’m not sure one exists…….
-
Jeff says toss in 3, 2, 1……….
-
I should change my post, appears they officially recorded 6.3" of snow. I don't remember the last time there were 2 six inch snows in one winter either. Can't find an official measurement for January 3rd, but they received between 1 and 2.9" across the city that day. Quite the winter run for our friends in the mid state!
-
I am not sure I remember a year when Nashville recorded two 7+" snows. If it happened, was probably back in the 1800s. Chattanooga snow hole checks out, as do the downslope areas coming up the valley. Now if it were only 24 hours away.
-
Maybe your second batter will do better, but knowing the plight of Chattanooga..... I won't hold my breath.
-
Used to be when the Euro and UK were in lockstep with each other 3-4 days out you could go ahead and dust off your snow shovel.
-
It's obvious there are two camps this am, but the ensembles tells me there's a great degree of uncertainty between those two camps at this point. As long as you set your expectation level low, it's pretty easy to take the swings (or in this case, Sherman's march to the northwest). Just a hunch, but I think the trend stops at 12z and moves back toward something weaker as shown on the 6z Euro.
-
My two cents…. I lean toward the general solution the Euro has, and not just because it shows more winter potential for the weekend. I say that because beyond day 5ish, the GFS is (a lot of the time) too much northern stream (progressive) and not enough southern stream, squashing chances. The Euro (at least in days of old, lol) would handle this setup much better. Interested to see where this week takes us.
-
Only a matter of time before the two streams connect and we have another legit trackable snow/ice system, IMO
-
It wasn't just that, but at 500 you could see the two streams beginning to phase. Fantasy land, but not an unreasonable solution given where modeling takes us in the LR. Also, the Jan 15th period looked a bit closer than I remember it on the GFS and CMC yesterday.
-
I guess we can put that in the bin of things that can screw up a snow event…. It’s a BIG bin.
-
I have numerous friends from Nashville to Gallatin, Hendersonville, and Westmoreland. A lot of them scored a 6-8" event and a couple have indicated they received almost 9"... It's been a LONG time since this widespread a snowstorm occurred for the midstate. Happy for them.
-
Thanks, Jeff. Were there any changes noted for KTRI?
-
Agree, this is crazy talk.
