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tnweathernut

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  1. tnweathernut
    Welcome to the forum! I'm not Carvers, but I have some time and can answer the question. Hope this helps. Each model run generates individual ensemble members, each of which represents a slightly different possible future evolution of the weather based on small perturbations introduced into the initial conditions. By running the model at different times and with these perturbations, the GFS ensemble provides a more comprehensive picture of the potential range of future weather scenarios and their associated probabilities. Here's how it works: Base model runs: The GFS model itself is run four times per day, starting at the aforementioned UTC timestamps. Ensemble generation: For each base model run, ensemble members are generated by introducing slight variations in the initial conditions, such as temperature, pressure, and wind speed. These variations represent the uncertainties inherent in the initial data and atmospheric processes. Forecast calculations: Each ensemble member then evolves independently through the model, simulating the atmosphere's future state under slightly different conditions. This creates a range of possible weather forecasts for each forecast lead time. Therefore, when you access GFS ensemble forecasts, they represent the combined information from multiple model runs and multiple ensemble members, providing a more nuanced picture of the potential future weather than any single forecast could offer. It's important to remember that even with the ensemble approach, weather forecasts are inherently uncertain, and the range of possibilities represented by the ensemble can increase as the forecast lead time gets longer. Nevertheless, GFS ensembles are a valuable tool for meteorologists and the public alike to understand the potential range of future weather events and make informed decisions.
  2. tnweathernut
    Feel better soon. We are going to need everyone at 100% rowing in the right direction to bring a snow system home........... lol Hope it passes quickly!
  3. tnweathernut
    Well the second thought I had was which one of us on the forum works for channel 4?? lol
  4. tnweathernut
    That is quite possibly the boldest, and probably dumbest thing a major news station could put out for something a week away.............. IMO. lol
  5. tnweathernut
    The insurance guy over here can't catch a break. Several hail storms the past 3 years, last years Christmas pipe buster. Now we get damaging winds across the area tomorrow, likely another round late week, followed by another pipe buster next week. I really need a break. And people wonder why their home and auto insurances are going up at the rate of double digits increases each year.
  6. tnweathernut
    Try being a Minnesota Vikings fan....... lol
  7. tnweathernut
    It's no wonder we have so few statewide events. Here in the Tri-Cities, I can get to Canada quicker than I can Memphis. Just so hard to align a storm west to east over that type of distance. Someone usually gets hosed.
  8. tnweathernut
    Biggest things I noticed were: 1. The OP has the ridge off the west coast tipping to the northeast. This invites the northern stream to roll downhill further southwest, interacting with the southern branch feature and pumping the heights in the east just enough to screw up something possibly great. 2. The ensemble is smoothed (I get that), but if it has any energy in the southern branch it is suppressed. Since the ridge off the west coast doesn't tip northeast, the cold shot progresses to the SE.
  9. tnweathernut
    Just looking at the operational 18z vs the ensemble at 500 at hour 180 (truncation). See if you can spot the differences.
  10. tnweathernut
    Euro will cut. Northern and southern stream started interacting with each other way out west…. Maybe it’s a step in the right direction, time will tell. There are differences even at hour 120 evident, so will likely work out the correct (west vs east) sooner than later.
  11. tnweathernut
    I mean, I think we would all be willing to be patient if this type of event unfolded. I knew it was going to be a banger run when I was following 500 and saw this map......
  12. tnweathernut
    Looks like a phaser or phaser potential............ Nice to see it as a possibility, even if still in the land of make believe.
  13. tnweathernut
    Major winter storm incoming on HH GFS. Under day 10. This is progress. lol
  14. tnweathernut
    96 was the last time i remember snow on snow and significant snow on the ground for 2 straight weeks, with snow mounds all over the parking lots around the city. If I remember correct, we got it going by having a heavy rain change to heavy snow. I remember everyone in college talking about how the weather guys missed another one when the heavy rain was falling.. lol
  15. tnweathernut
    Banter, but.................another pipe busting cold snap with no snow would kill my soul. Just want to put that out there. I'm sure I'm not alone. lol
  16. tnweathernut
    The progression of the 12z Euro makes more sense than other modeling, IMO. First system is passing this weekend, second system (much stronger) early next week winds up and cuts into the lakes. This should move the boundary further east while the next system dives into the southern plains and takes a track a bit further to the south and east. Because of this, I think the system later next week (day 6) has a snow/ice axis somewhere that will put the western to middle Tennessee area and/or Arkansas/northern MS in play. I think East TN has to wait to see if there is a system following the much bigger push of very cold air that will try and make its move east following the late week system. Hope modeling can start to converge around the 12z Euro (outlier) and our bothers/sisters west of us will have a system to track.
  17. tnweathernut
    You didn't have to go back in the archives very far for this, but I'm always amazed at the historical value you bring to our forum. It's always fascinating. Thank you.
  18. tnweathernut
    It's the south, so we do the no snow drill well, but the worst is when we have robust system after system with rain in front and winters cold behind.......... only to finally get the consistent cold needed and then go bone dry for 10 days. lol
  19. tnweathernut
    Honestly, that's the last thing I want to hear. My insurance book of business still hasn't recovered from the pipes that were bursting all over northeast TN last Christmas.
  20. tnweathernut
    Tell your wife to hang in there! Prayers for a speedy recovery for her.
  21. tnweathernut
    I take comfort in seeing every storm too north with rain and too south suppressed. I take comfort because I know it's all wrong beyond day 7. Plenty of time to morph into something favorable.
  22. tnweathernut
    I definitely agree with this. I don't like a PV that splits. Such a low chance it even helps eastern North America!
  23. tnweathernut
    That system around the 12-14th will have to be watched, IMO. The system that runs in front of it may set the table for that one. Just need our new fangled SE trend to help us out for once. There also seems to be a decent high over the top for that period...........
  24. tnweathernut
    Now you can't even get the euro to agree with the euro. lol
  25. tnweathernut
    We had a heavy dusting in north Johnson City this morning.
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