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tnweathernut

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Everything posted by tnweathernut

  1. tnweathernut
    Jeff will tell you that's not a likely solution. lol
  2. tnweathernut
    .
  3. tnweathernut
    After taking a look at modeling this AM (OP & Ensembles) it appears the pattern we have all waited for (board wide) is still very much on track to produce numerous systems taking the low road, each with potentially colder air as we go through the next 2-3 weeks, perhaps ending with a truly cold airmass making its way into the lower 48 toward the end of this 2-3 week period. Lots of large scale features seemingly moving in good directions with several systems to track. About all you can ask for, not to mention we are getting this during peak climo ...... and not chasing it, hoping it materializes in mid March.
  4. tnweathernut
    Parts of middle TN might end up in the crosshairs with this system. Definitely one to watch.....
  5. tnweathernut
    Somebody go wake @Carvers Gap up and let him know it wasn’t a dream..... the RGEM just cold smoked his entire county. It looks like the setup is there for a narrow smash job just to the northwest of the 850 track. Predicting that track is notoriously hard on modeling, even short range. I’ve seen 50-75 mile adjustments within the 24-36 hour window many times over the years. There are usually surprises with these types of systems, both good and bad. Will be fascinating to watch this one play out.
  6. tnweathernut
    Exactly. If it shows something good over you from 5-6 days out then you are likely out of luck. Where it is at 18z is likely good for our entire forum...
  7. tnweathernut
    Now THAT (18z gfs) is right where we want it for several more days.. east across the northern gulf then northeast through far south GA and off the east coast.
  8. tnweathernut
    I think we'd all like to see the traditional GFS go progressive and further SE for storm 2. At least when we see this we know the usual correction is coming...
  9. tnweathernut
    You could have stopped here and I'd have been on board. It's a pretty wretched model. Good point on the HUGE adjustments on a recent system. The move it made from having snow here to actually snowing in west Texas to Missouri was a colossal jump.
  10. tnweathernut
    This usually doesn't work out well, but I like your boldness.... haha I never thought we'd work into something this quickly. I am excited to see where the pattern heads and already having multiple periods to track is a great.......
  11. tnweathernut
    What I take from the looks on modeling and ensembles over the last couple of days.......... Many of us are likely to be dog tired after the next 2-3 weeks from tracking multiple systems. Normally I wouldn’t be so bold, but the pattern shown is screaming multiple opportunities. Could we strike out? Sure, this is the Tennessee Valley region. Is it likely? I don’t think so. Buckle up.
  12. tnweathernut
    Good tweet thread here. Thought I’d share.... .
  13. tnweathernut
    I’m not terribly concerned (at this point) about cold air with the 500 pattern projected. I suppose we could strike out over the 7-14 due to a little too much warmth, but it’s not like Canada can’t supply any cold if we pop a flow from our friends to the north. As always, time will tell. .
  14. tnweathernut
    Happy New Year to the guys and gals on the best forum on americanwx. I hope 2021 is a blessed year for you all! I also hope we find all the snow we can handle in the next couple of months! Cheers.......
  15. tnweathernut
    No clue if this pattern comes to fruition as portrayed, but if it does....... it's the type of pattern that can produce snow on snow (i.e. multiple winter events) for someone in the southeast.
  16. tnweathernut
    The massive blocking is beginning to exert itself with these OP runs. Likely too warm for the first system or two, but definitely a trend to be cooler than initially shown. Legit winter threats will emerge if we keep reeling in these looks.
  17. tnweathernut
    Really rare event unfolding thousands of miles away from us. Thanks for sharing, let's see how low she can go!
  18. tnweathernut
    It's a good sign the EPS appears to be speeding up the transition the last several cycles. Maybe we can work into something before the middle of January is past us..........
  19. tnweathernut
    Barnes and company definitely have this program rolling. Love the kids they recruit and looking forward to their development. It's a shame these kids can't play in front of packed crowds at Thompson-Boling. They are good enough to win it all if they keep improving. Team chemistry is through the roof.............
  20. tnweathernut
    Was good here too. I'd definitely be willing to part with your left nut for a repeat......
  21. tnweathernut
    I’ve always learned Aleutian low good, gulf of Alaska low bad.. guess it’s all positioning. I’m sure what I learned (even if in error) is far too simplistic to use.
  22. tnweathernut
    Coldest temperature I can find not directly under is in Hodrogo, Mongolia. They are 37 below (F) at 9:00 PM
  23. tnweathernut
    Been checking around and from all accounts appears accurate. .
  24. tnweathernut
    @John1122 would likely agree with me when I say I'd much rather have some PAC help showing. I have seen the PAC completely ruin our chances more than I can count over the last 20 years. How did you do with this last system. As an aside, how did you fare Christmas Eve? I was at my wife's grandmothers Christmas Eve in Tazewell and they ended with about 5". Hope you did as well!
  25. tnweathernut
    Just glancing through the ensembles the last 24 hours. If the NAO cooperates to the degree shown on modeling, it would likely take a modest change in the Pacific to start throwing chances to track something wintry. I just hope the PAC finds these modest changes before the NAO shoots all its bullets.
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