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tnweathernut

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  1. tnweathernut
    School systems need better advisors. A lot of times, schools dismiss when they are better off staying and sometimes they dismiss at the worst possible time (during the heavy snow). We had around 3/4 an inch at the house in north Johnson City (according to my sick at home son) and a heavy dusting in Erwin with the largest flakes I have seen since 1998 falling toward the end of the heavy precip. Nice surprise...
  2. tnweathernut
    We take. While the control model isn’t likely correct in showing three snows... I believe it does show the potential the upcoming pattern holds. Probably only a matter of time before we are tracking a legit threat.
  3. tnweathernut
    Glanced at some of the overnight modeling.... 0z CMC ensembles lose the ridging over the top in the extended, but the 0/6z GEFS and 0z EPS show ridging around the 25th in Greenland and it starts to wash out but then builds to connect the ridging over the top with the PV trapped underneath with a robust -EPO and some hints of that ridging extending to the west coast. With that look a good chunk of the lower 48 would be at or below (and in some cases much below) normal. As long as the southern stream doesn't die we should be good for multiple winter opportunities. That doesn't even include the 2 opportunities in the midrange.
  4. tnweathernut
    You can see the Pacific isn’t ready to stop pushing things around. The waves crashing the ridge are pushing it further east. This is causing the northern stream and southern stream to stay separated longer and a further south track with the southern low as it has a chance to stay positively tilted longer. Will be interesting to see if that trend continues the next couple of days. This really isn’t too far from something nice in west TN...
  5. tnweathernut
    and it's at night............ brrrr!
  6. tnweathernut
    Good posts this AM, guys. Loving the animations, Holston! I have been checking around looking through all the ensembles and other data trying to find the reason we don't go into an active tracking period late January through a decent chunk of February. It's really hard to find anything that argues against cold and active. Really, the only thing I could find is the MJO. It's projected to head back through the warm phases 4,5,6,and 7 (7 is a warm signal later in the winter). Looks to be at a decent amplitude as well. I hope other signals can overwhelm the MJO. It has driven the bus for too long now. I don't know about you all, but I'm ready to get on another ride for the rest of winter. I never wanted to be on the MJO ride in the first place! If we can realize the pattern being depicted (-AO, -EPO, and -NAO) you have to think it's just a matter of time before we have the southern jet attacking cold that should hold for a widespread winter storm. Other than the MJO, I suppose we could miss winter storms by having too much of a good thing (i.e. the PV sitting in the lakes that squashes precip to the gulf coast) or we could lose the southern stream, but since it's been so active this winter you have to think that's a very minor concern. All in all, i'd say it's all systems go....................... but it's the waiting for liftoff that is the hardest part, and EVERY OP model run will probably be scrutinized when it doesn't show cold and snow. It's probably best to stick to the ensembles, ignoring bad AND good OP runs. Like Carver's said, getting anything right past day 5/6 isn't likely. As long as the ensembles continue to reel in the pattern I think we are good region wide, IMO.
  7. tnweathernut
    Check the FV3... 2 snowstorms for you. The second is a full TN Valley system.
  8. tnweathernut
    Thanks, Jax for sharing the text stuff.... love data like that! Hope we can reel something in like what is shown on the Euro today. Would be fun to track. Maybe we already are tracking. lol
  9. tnweathernut
    Sure did, keeps up the cold press further south thing going and the rain to snow scenario on a more widespread basis. More changes coming, but it’s a pretty good look on modeling.
  10. tnweathernut
    Modeling is impressive. The cold coming is the real deal. Will be interesting to see what happens next weekend. The system occurring now was shown to snow on TN just a few days ago, then modeling moved to KY. It’s currently snowing all the way to Chicago.....lol. I think the modeling will have a chance to adjust the opposite direction next weekend. This type of cold USUALLY presses in faster than modeled. I could certainly envision the rain to ice/snow scenario being advertised on some current modeling for next weekend. What follows after next weekend would also have enough cold to provide opportunities somewhere in our forum.
  11. tnweathernut
    Moderate snow/sleet band just worked overhead. Showed as rain, but was all snow/sleet. The RGEM (from yesterday) nailed these isolated heavier bands developing in northeast TN.
  12. tnweathernut
    Good post by Carvers. Not much to add to that. Impressive cold now being shown. If we can keep the southern jet active you have to think we time one up pretty soon. SOI is back negative his am (-5.81), which is a good thing. Hope we can keep it mostly negative for the better part of the next 45 days. With all the snow being laid down just north of us. It would certainly aid the cold being colder than it would have otherwise been. Good times likely incoming!
  13. tnweathernut
    My recollection is about a week later we had the exact same setup. That low ended up going west and backing into the plateau, where more than a foot fell. I remember driving I-40 and seeing the bend evergreens along the interstate being bent to a horizontal state. I also had a buddy working for the state of TN who was staying in Cookeville for a project who told me all about how heavy the snow was. He lived in middle Tennessee and it was partly cloudy and around 52 the afternoon it was snowing so heavily in the Johnson City area the week before.
  14. tnweathernut
    January 3, 2018 - Charleston and much of the SC Coast (inland in GA). Not sure they have too many years where back to back years produces, but it looks like a possibility.
  15. tnweathernut
    Upper level low that just sat and spun over the southern apps for hours. Basically snowed itself out. Forecast was for light rain and highs in the upper 30's. Every burst of heavier precip turned the switch to snow. When it would lighten up it would go back to a light rain. We were under WWA twice, BOTH while they were already occurring. We finally went from a winter weather advisory to a warnings, but that was after there was 4-6" of snow already on the ground (from what I remember). Crazy crazy storm.
  16. tnweathernut
    3+" per hour for over 6 straight hours. I remember thinking at the time i'd likely never see anything like it again..... I would have given anything back then to have the technology and social media presence we have now. the videos would have been awesome. As a side note, local forecasters NEVER bit on a big snow and were always playing catch up. The power went out in my part of JC and there was about 6-7" of snow on the ground (either 5:15 or 6:15). I remember the time because WJHL (Mark Reynolds) was on TV saying don't be surprised if we see some 6-7 inch reports, then poof.......power went out. We ended up with over 20" and the sounds of transformers blowing all over JC.
  17. tnweathernut
    Those 90's winters (looking back on them) were pretty awesome. I didn't used to feel that way, as I wanted all cold and snow all the time. In general, there were a TON of days to get outside in the winter time and enjoy most years, but I saw the three biggest snows in my lifetime in the 90's. 93, 96, and 98. Looking back on this time period I can now say it was pretty great.
  18. tnweathernut
    It will be interesting to see if the MJO can have an impact if it cycles through to a low amplitude warm phase. Maybe something else drives the bus for a while?
  19. tnweathernut
    Good post, Holston. My simplistic view is that once we get the nice cold shot next week and have a week or two of back and forth (troughs and ridges) we will need to start looking for threats. We haven’t had a shortage of storms under us this year and that looks to continue. There seems to be just enough cold air for fun and games, at times. I wouldn’t be surprised if someone scores before we get to what looks like the “money” time frame (late January into Feb)
  20. tnweathernut
    FV3 at 6z entertains a full Tennessee Valley threat in the 6-7 day period. Also, some modeling is hinting at the PV coming to visit the lower 48 (ala the Euro control). Overall, a change to a colder period suitable to find a threat appears on track when looking at the ensembles. The only thing I don’t like when looking at the ensembles from yesterday........ they were almost all perfect in the extended. Why is that bad? Typically modeling in the 10-15 will begin to move those features around a bit and a simplistic view means the perfect can become much less desirable. Either way, just getting out of this raging PAC mess will be welcomed with open arms. Especially as we head into prime snow season in the Tennessee Valley and Mid-South.
  21. tnweathernut
    The operational model wet the bed at the end of the run, but the ensembles (EPS, GEFS, & GEPS) look great........ (i.e. all the yellows, oranges, & blues in the right places)
  22. tnweathernut
    For the models to do a 180 in the last 24 hours is telling........ LOTS going on, and potentially a very good period ahead of us. Perhaps the illusive "sustained" winter pattern.
  23. tnweathernut
    With the SOI tanking, the MJO being sniffed out to be a bit stronger in the cold phases, and the ensembles showing changes beginning around day 7, I won’t be surprised If more and more operationals begin to throw out some crazy looks over the next several days.
  24. tnweathernut
    Yeah, the PV looks to continue taking a beating which has the potential to be a very good thing. or devils advocate maybe not. lol. I guess that cold air HAS to go somewhere, right?
  25. tnweathernut
    Thanks for posting these. Great visual representation! Would be awesome if the pattern transitioned a few days quicker though I know that's not typical. Usually a strong pattern in the Pacific is much tougher to break down and why models will throw several head fakes before actually getting there. Like you, I have little knowledge of all things strat. It's hard enough to read through the strat experts tweets/postings and interpret what they are trying to say, much less know by looking myself. lol The very basic understanding I have of the SOI is depending on whether it's predominantly positive or negative it lends itself to either El Nino (negative) or La Nina (positive). Related to these positive and negative phases are areas of convection in different parts of the Pacific Ocean, depending on the phase. In short, the phase determines where the warmer waters are placed and the strength of the trade winds. It makes sense (to me, lol) if you can change the location of the consistent convection that has been partially keeping the Pacific a train wreck and the MJO stuck in neutral, you have a chance to alter the jet above it and by extension the pattern for North America.
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