tnweathernut

I feel much the same way. Finding snow in the south is almost like work as you learn more about the atmosphere. It was much simpler when I was a kid, before weather models...... All I had to look at was dad's electronic (heath kit) weather station and the sky outside. It had barometer, wind speed, wind direction, temperature, dew point and wind chill read outs. I am interested in the snow shower activity showing on modeling. The piece of energy rotating through looks good for fairly wide-spread snow showers. Then we wait to see how much cold we can keep for the following week as moisture builds to our south. At the very least this winter has been completely different than last winter.

I'm pulling for this timeframe to produce. Looks like it has potential. Biggest inhibitor would be the hyper-active northern stream shearing out the southern stream, again. Hope we can get enough separation between vorts in the northern stream to let the southern stream amplify or hold together as a weaker system with plentiful moisture. It's likely way too much to ask a lone northern stream piece to dive into the backside of our southern stream at just the right spot.

Agree. Just hope it’s got a leg up in figuring out where we go down the road.

Just minor differences. Still a good look for you guys out that way... the surface maps suggest a classic (though weakening) northwest snow shield. Reasonable when looking at 500. .

Cheering for you guys to our southwest.... hope you score!

With lows generally in the 20's and daytime highs in the mid 30's to around 40 from now until the system comes in I agree we will need to watch it. If the timing can speed up a 1/2 day there would likely be morning road issues somewhere in Tennessee (most likely west)............ not to mention the possible issues in northern MS and possibly AL where heavier precip will be closer in proximity.

Yeah, definitely don't want to come across as saying it's not happening. My post was regarding Tennesseans. Just when looking at everything there doesn't appear to be much of a chance for anything greater than a possible 1-2, type of event once to Tennessee. Certainly for our brothers and sisters just south of the TN border in northern MS and northern AL I'd be keeping a much more watchful eye on this one. Chances for a 3-6" type system may set up somewhere in their location.

1/2 inch in north JC (Boones Creek exit) before the daytime zapped it.

500mb level looks like a mess. the vort is shearing out and the time of day is the worst possible arrival (afternoon) for what light precip makes it up this way. All modeling shows 500 going to crap, so I'd set expectations low and if you see a light snow event consider yourself lucky! Just my two cents.

That’s awesome, Blue Moon.... enjoy!

The kid in me wants to see a HEAVY WET snow. They are always beautiful and a rare thing indeed. But as an insurance guy...... I almost hope this isn't in the 5+ range....... Lots of trees would be coming down if we hit the 6-8" range and claims would be a nightmare!

I know in general, people expect things to be cut and dry. That's not the case with marginal temperature setups and ULL's involved. I'm with you regarding discussing possibilities and would think it's a good thing to do.

Without a doubt one of the hardest setups to have any confidence, especially when going public.

If nothing else, the Euro has been absolutely rock solid run after run, especially in putting the bullseye on northeast TN. It might be rock solidly bad when this is said and done, but its consistency has been remarkable.

The Canadian at 12z starts its accumulating snow in much the same place as the para 12z GFS, but hits the western and middle part of the state more. Snow isn't heavy once you leave east Texas and western Louisiana, but a general 2-4 up through Memphis, Jackson, and 1-2" in northern middle Tennessee.

Nice track for the system next Monday on the para. Shows a nice stripe of snow from east Texas and ENE into SE Tennessee. Doesn't get a lot of moisture back into Tennessee northwest of there, but the threat is there and on most modeling not named the regular GFS.

When in doubt, let the purple finger point the way for snow.............. once you see it you can't unsee it.

Good catch. Not sure how that happened, but as I get older my eyes don’t see this iPhone near as well. lol .

This will be a nowcast situation, as several thought all along. These lows tend to be very hit or miss, just the nature of how they evolve as they move west to east. The only place I feel good about an accumulating snow are the mountains along the east TN border, and especially western NC.

3k 12z NAM far less enthused for northeast TN outside the mountains, but hits the Knoxville area and points WSW to just northwest of Chattanooga hard with a widespread area of 5-7”

Low res 12z NAM snow totals. ........ a couple of posts down. lol

3k 0z NAM is generous to many in northeast TN and still gives hope for some around Chattanooga and other parts of southern TN. .

Looking at the animation, it appears the explosive precip never makes it back over the mountains like on previous model runs. Starts in western NC and pivots there before pulling away to the east.

Looks like the 12z. I think 18z lost its mojo, except for the mountains and western NC. Biggest lollipops are in Grundy County, Scott and Campbell Counties. Outside of the mountains there's a bunch of less than 1/2" amounts scattered across Tennessee It does show a couple of inches in Chattanooga, so there's that!

Excellent discussion by the Morristown peeps: AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Morristown TN 348 PM EST Wed Jan 6 2021 LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)... The main story for the long term period is the chance for widespread snowfall Thursday night into Friday, with several inches expected in the east TN mountains and a chance for some accumulating snow down into the valley floor. Will be focusing the discussion on this system as a result. Thursday evening a deep southern stream upper trough will cutoff over the Arklatex region, shifting east across northern Mississippi and Alabama through the night and into the Carolinas on Friday. There remains some disagreement with the placement of the upper low as it traverses the TN/MS/AL border Thursday night, which has implications on precip type and amounts. This lends itself to a still-low confidence forecast for the lower elevations of the TN valley. Elsewhere, especially in the east TN mountains along the NC border, confidence is much higher in precip type and reasonably high with regards to amounts. Precip looks to spread into the southern counties during the evening hours tomorrow, working north through the central valley by midnight or so, and finally up into the northern zones by daybreak Friday morning. This seems to be pretty well agreed on in the numerical guidance. BUFR soundings from various models do not support any snow reaching the lower elevations until after midnight, but between evaporative and dynamic cooling and the baseline thermal profile, expect that at minimum a rain/snow mix will be seen fairly early on at elevations above 2,000 ft or so. Snow levels will work their way lower through the night though, and expect to see a rain/snow mix down to the valley floor during during the very early morning hours on Friday. Let me go ahead and address the elephant in the room here and say that it doesn`t appear that this will be a very impactful snow event for the TN valley south of roughly Morristown or maybe even a little further north than that. Looking upstream, there is no source of frigid, dry arctic air that will surge south into the TN valley to support prolonged periods of snow at low elevations. Model soundings show a weak warm nose induced by southeasterly flow across the mountains, or perhaps a deep isothermal layer near the freezing line, through the time period where snow will exist. Given forecast surface temperatures, the driving factor in any accumulating snow will be precip rates and frankly they don`t look outstanding outside of the Appalachians where orographic lift will help enhance rates there. Have a tenth or two of accumulation from the southern valley up to around the Morristown area in the forecast. Now, moving on to the plateau, mountains, and other locales. The best window of heavier precipitation rates looks to be from roughly midnight Thu night through daybreak Fri morning. This is when the best low and mid level frontogenetic forcing transits the area. More susbtantial deep ascent will stay east of the forecast area into the Carolinas. Likewise, a persistent TROWAL feature is absent across our CWA, so this will be a quick hitting system in large part. Still, given the low freezing levels to start, expect that the mountains could pick up a quick 4-6" of snow late Thursday night as this system passes by. Some northwest flow snow showers will likely linger into Friday evening, but the best accumulating snowfall will be done by late Fri morning most likely. On the plateau, the same situation applies. Being further removed from the best forcing, expect snow amounts in the 1-3" range there. Having said all of that, decided to hoist up a Winter Storm Watch for the east TN mountains and far western NC from 8pm EST Thu through 8pm EST Fri. Confidence seems high enough to warrant that at this time. If trends continue, will likely need an advisory for the plateau. However, there`s enough uncertainty there, as well as the far northern TN valley and southwest Virginia (both of which will be furthest from the best moisture and lift) to hold off on any headlines now. Have snowfall accumulations in the 1-3" range in those locales as well but would not be surprised if those change (up or down) in future forecast packages. Otherwise, for the remainder of the long term period, cool and dry conditions continue through the weekend. There is a chance another southern stream system could bring chances for widespread wintry precip again on Monday night into Tuesday, but uncertainty is very high right now and it not worth going into detail on that system just yet.