-
Posts
4,746 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Profiles
Blogs
Forums
American Weather
Media Demo
Store
Gallery
Everything posted by tnweathernut
-
December/January 2019/20 Winter Speculation Thread
tnweathernut replied to AMZ8990's topic in Tennessee Valley
Maybe, but the moisture stream off the Pacific still looks good. Keep that look consistently and you'd think we have to score eventually.- 1,666 replies
-
- 1
-
-
December/January 2019/20 Winter Speculation Thread
tnweathernut replied to AMZ8990's topic in Tennessee Valley
back in the day I remember a southwest low not being a terrible thing. Would spit out smaller disturbances and with enough cold provide lighter snow opportunities. Then, when the main system kicked there would be a chance at a major system somewhere in the east. If the cold is tough to dislodge, ice becomes a much bigger concern. Let's see how the pattern evolves. Nothing but good vibes today, which is always fun...- 1,666 replies
-
- 4
-
-
I was to blame last year. After the Dec snow I went out and bought a UTV and plow.... didn’t snow again. Glad it’s someone else this year.
- 295 replies
-
- 2
-
-
December/January 2019/20 Winter Speculation Thread
tnweathernut replied to AMZ8990's topic in Tennessee Valley
Speaking of LR difficulties in December and if you want to see a great example of the butterfly effect in full effect, take a look at the 500mb level on tropical tidbits beyond day 10. This current run (12z) is night and day different over the top. There is so much blocking showing on this run and it's an almost complete 180 from the last several runs. Just toggle between prior runs and you will see why educated guesses into the future often fail.- 1,666 replies
-
- 2
-
-
December/January 2019/20 Winter Speculation Thread
tnweathernut replied to AMZ8990's topic in Tennessee Valley
Good stuff the last couple of posts, @Carvers Gap. This may be a bit off topic, but........ It's almost comical when we go back and look through old long range threads we are always talking about the same indexes, what looks good for winter and which things might throw a wrench into things. All I can definitively say is this science (beyond a couple of days) is one of, it not THE toughest things on earth one can venture into to make educated guesses on. I feel like modeling has come a long way in the last couple of decades, but I am not sure the professional community/scientists ever (in our lifetimes) make a ton of headway in long range prediction. The butterfly effect is always working against the smartest individuals the planet has to offer. It's not like we can expect non-linear equations to ever become linear. lol All that said, I can't say how much I appreciate those who do this for a living and how much I am bothered by people with zero understanding cracking meteorologist jokes like it should be easy.. On topic, if a gun was held to my head I'd go with a 65% chance of above normal temps in December with a variable pattern of warm and cold. A lot of this guess is simply based in climatology and the atmosphere acting like a fairly healthy Nino right now. The biggest wildcard is the beating the strat is taking and how that may affects things going forward.- 1,666 replies
-
- 5
-
-
December/January 2019/20 Winter Speculation Thread
tnweathernut replied to AMZ8990's topic in Tennessee Valley
Winter in the 90's were in a really warm period, yet in northeast Tennessee we managed a great snow year (1996) and two other huge snows (1993 and 1998). I was thinking back to this just a couple of days ago. As warm and "relatively" snowless as that decade was it provided snows and snowy periods not really seen since. I just want to have the internet and modeling we have now and to go have something like that to track.......... Can you all imagine how exhausted we'd be if we were tracking another 1993 from 7-10 days out?? As far as where we go in December, I am not at all worried. Last year parts of east Tennessee saw a major snow before Dec 10th and then winter was largely over. This year, if it's warm I will just enjoy it and know we have January and February ahead of us. It can't be as bad as last year. (seems like I have thought this several times in the last 10 years, lol) Quick everyone, look at the 500 level. There is a unicorn there, the -NAO. Maybe it will come visit more as we get deeper into winter. Happy early Thanksgiving to everyone on the board! Hope you enjoy time with family and friends the next several days. I am sure we can all think of many things to be grateful for....- 1,666 replies
-
- 5
-
-
Glad you are feeling better, Jeff. Just curious, did you take the flu shot this year?
- 295 replies
-
- 1
-
-
I wouldn't discount the Euro snow map from Holston above. It does display a relative snow hole over my house in Washington County of northeast TN. This is likely more accurate than anyone realizes. lol
- 295 replies
-
- 1
-
-
I don't want any part of early and heavy snows (in October). I'm not superstitious, but I have definitely seen that movie a couple of times before.
- 295 replies
-
- 3
-
-
I just need Tyreek Hill to come back for FF purposes........... is that too much to ask?
- 295 replies
-
- 2
-
-
Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019
tnweathernut replied to Upstate Tiger's topic in Southeastern States
Flurries in early March, after all the LR model teases for the past two months, is equivalent to a kick in the nads. -
Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019
tnweathernut replied to Upstate Tiger's topic in Southeastern States
The 12z EPS has a decent signal for something minor around day 8 and something more significant around day 10.... -
Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019
tnweathernut replied to Upstate Tiger's topic in Southeastern States
Yes, a rip off indeed. We have almost been able to set our watches by the late blooming -NAO’s for the last several years. That said, I feel good if we can get the PAC under control the NAO will follow with plenty of time left here......and especially in your neck of the woods. Also, I have been extremely encouraged with the changes with the LR ensembles. It’s actually been fun to watch the last couple of days, plus it silences the negative nancies for a bit. Not even incremental changes, but pretty dramatic which tells me the looks we see the next few days may get better even quicker. The OP’s were throwing hints for a couple of runs before the ensembles started changing. One of the few times that will happen. All in all we should have some good times ahead. -
Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019
tnweathernut replied to Upstate Tiger's topic in Southeastern States
We usually find a strong -NAO, but we usually wait till late March and April to pull it off. haha -
Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019
tnweathernut replied to Upstate Tiger's topic in Southeastern States
Good luck over that way to our coastal folks. I concur, trends are encouraging for a surprise. Doesn’t mean it has to, but it is getting closer and closer with a little time left to go. -
Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019
tnweathernut replied to Upstate Tiger's topic in Southeastern States
You see it time and time again. The heavy snows tend to take people off the roads before the event, but the quick light hitters with plummeting temps usually create an ice skating rink that jam up roads with stuck and wrecked cars. I hope that doesn't happen, but it's certainly on the table after looking at 12z modeling. Hopefully, if this look holds the news organizations will do a good job preparing drivers. -
Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019
tnweathernut replied to Upstate Tiger's topic in Southeastern States
Agree, great post! -
Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019
tnweathernut replied to Upstate Tiger's topic in Southeastern States
I can vouch. Very heavy radar echos with just enough evap cooling in Johnson City and surrounding areas to turn us to snow and produce the largest snowflakes I have seen since 1998. Some were the size of the bottom of a water bottle. Picked up a quick 1/2-1 inch that was not on the radar of meteorologists. Melted quickly after the precip stopped, but heavy daytime snow is always fun regardless of whether it sticks around or not. -
Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019
tnweathernut replied to Upstate Tiger's topic in Southeastern States
January 3, 2018 - Charleston and much of the SC Coast (inland in GA). Not sure they have too many years where back to back years produces, but it looks like a possibility. -
December 8-10, 2018 Winter Storm
tnweathernut replied to Orangeburgwx's topic in Southeastern States
I think everyone is shooting for Uber white.... kidding aside....Modeling has been rock steady showing a great system for you guys and the meso models are now showing colder thermals. Y’all enjoy, but keep your eyes on the thermals up until the last moment. It wouldn’t be the first time a rug was pulled in the last seconds. Best of luck sent from the other side of the hill. -
Historic Tennessee Valley Cold, Snow, and Ice Events
tnweathernut replied to Carvers Gap's topic in Tennessee Valley
That map I posted for 1960 doesn't really have any reports from your area, but if you guessed based on nearby reports that would have put you in the 30-35" range. I am guessing you were probably higher than that though.....?- 127 replies
-
Historic Tennessee Valley Cold, Snow, and Ice Events
tnweathernut replied to Carvers Gap's topic in Tennessee Valley
This is also a great site if you have a few hours to kill. Not all stations reported, but several did. You can find one close to you and search daily data. http://w2.weather.gov/climate/xmacis.php?wfo=mrx- 127 replies
-
- 1
-
-
Historic Tennessee Valley Cold, Snow, and Ice Events
tnweathernut replied to Carvers Gap's topic in Tennessee Valley
1960 is the gold standard for mid-south/southeast/carolina's March snow. It gets talked about a lot and I remember first studying it back when easternwx was around. Here is a 500mb map from the first 1/2 of 1960 as well as the surface temp anomaly for the same period. There are some 500 similarities, but I don't think the cold would have the potential to be as strong. I have also included the snow map I could find. I am sure it doesn't do John's snowfall justice (lol), but it was accurate for "recorded snow in and around the Tri-Cities (snowiest March on record just shy of 28")- 127 replies
-
Historic Tennessee Valley Cold, Snow, and Ice Events
tnweathernut replied to Carvers Gap's topic in Tennessee Valley
That's part of what made 1993 so special. Just think of the technology we had back then and to know this system was fairly well forecast from 5 days out while the southeast baked in above normal temps leading up to the event is pretty remarkable. I can't imagine what this board would be like if a system like that started showing up on modeling almost a week out and came to fruition. Pretty sure the servers wouldn't be able to handle it. I was in college at ETSU. I remember the forecast for a heavy snow, but being from Nashville I took a chance and left for spring break to be with family and friends. I left that Friday, the 12th at the same time a buddy of mine at ETSU left to head to Danville, VA. I only saw light snow showers and flurries till late that night when backbuilding FINALLY edged into middle TN (we ended up with 2-3", but I remember drifts over 8'). A couple of weeks later I learned my buddy, who left at the same time, encountered heavy snows heading through SW VA and got stuck between here and home. He said the snow got heavy quick and he ended up spending a good chunk of spring break at a run down motel...- 127 replies
-
- 2
-
-