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tnweathernut

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  1. tnweathernut
    I had an event where downsloping took me from 32 to 47 with breaks in the overcast while 10 miles northwest had mixed precip and 33
  2. tnweathernut
    Panel for hour 90 is the only panel loaded beyond hour 72, but aside from the downslope over my back yard, a LOT of you guys will like it!! John, especially.......
  3. tnweathernut
    Why yes BR, we are! I have been communicating with Carvers some and mentioned that to him earlier........that when this thing gets into NAM range, there will likely be some prodigious snow maps to drool over. Right, no. But fun to look at. It's good to have everyone on the board again this year and it's GREAT to see some new faces. I hope we add a few more new members in the coming days and I hope the setup improves for more of us in the TN Valley!
  4. tnweathernut
    Oklahoma and Arkansas got NAM'd at 18z. West TN was in the crosshairs if it ran a few hours longer. Not that anyone is really all that curious about the 18z NAM past 48 to 54 hours.......
  5. tnweathernut
    Agree, a storm with this many moving pieces should continue to be watched. This 12z run leaves the door open and let's you know not all corrections are going to be north with this storm. Just get the 850 low beneath TN cruising west to east, and let's see that happens.
  6. tnweathernut
    Interesting they would discount the UK. It was and remains progressive.
  7. tnweathernut
    I would rather see a trend toward a stronger high personally. I have seen countless times where precip will make it further north than modeled with a southern stream wave..... I have also seen countless times where the warm nose makes it further north than modeled. It’s a tightrope we’ve fallen off of more times than we can count...... high qpf looks almost certain at this point, but the amount and depth of cold is very much in question.
  8. tnweathernut
    Yep, I was looking at feature placements as it was coming in and thinking this run will be much better in the snow department for Tennesseans. I was pretty surprised to see it go the other way. Not that I am going to give more weight to the happy hour GFS vs. the most recent Euro run. By the way, who broke the FV3? Never completed it's 12z run and hasn't started 18z...
  9. tnweathernut
    Just to have a probability this far out of a foot is really impressive. That 50+% for the mountains is crazy!
  10. tnweathernut
    Some of those guys found their miracle on the 12z Euro. Simply an incredible run from the Euro. I think this matches pretty well with the UK at 12z too. Good to see some oscillations south are still on the table.
  11. tnweathernut
    I think there was a cold shot and coastal snow in December of 1989, but it was later in the month... if not mistaken.
  12. tnweathernut
    One thing that caught my eye about the run. Sunday morning at 7am it shows a 1007mb low in southern GA, 24 hours later at 7am Monday morning it has rapidly deepened to 997. 24 hours later at 7am Tuesday morning, it has moved about 50 miles east, still off the outer banks of NC at 995mb. That's pretty impressive.
  13. tnweathernut
    Regarding the 12z Euro. Surface low track from the northwestern gulf, to southern GA to off the outer banks of NC is a money track for the TN Valley. Runs have been going back and forth with the depth of the cold and position of the high so expect more changes in the coming day. That's the biggest thing missing this run (cold, lol). Hopefully we will revert back to a deeper cold and stronger high while keeping a similar track. It's what we do in the mid-south, walk the tight rope and hope for the best.
  14. tnweathernut
    Comparing last night's 0z and watching the EURO roll in at 12z and it appears early on if there are small changes through hour 96. The high pressure is a touch quicker and a bit deeper, but the southern stream is a little slower and deeper (looks like it wants to ...at least briefly.... close off). We don't need to slow the southern stream down any more. I hope that isn't a trend that continues. By 120, the low is off the southeast TX gulf coast. High is a little quicker. Looks like the CAD regions are a touch stronger. 850s are warmer across the state of TN. going to be close...... the HP is centered in northern IL at 1036 vs. 1039 in IA at 0z.
  15. tnweathernut
    Euro should be entering it's wheelhouse (compared to other modeling) at 500 for day 5. It will be interesting to see how it handles the northern stream and our southern wave. While overall the 12z FV3 was a bit north from 6z the run was not much different as the wave came across. It will be interesting to see if this is a TN Valley snowstorm or a mostly KY snowstorm in the end. I'm also really interested to see how the FV3 does regarding thermals with this system as compared to the Euro. Will be a fascinating battle to watch play out.
  16. tnweathernut
    Good update, Carvers. FV3 should be further north with more GOM ridging, less confluence in the northeast and a weaker vort around the MN region at hour 96. If it would ever update we likely won't see the TN Valley crusher we saw at 6z. Still a long way to go. Euro............... you're up!
  17. tnweathernut
    Yep, it’s probably going to be a long week of tracking. I feel like we have been following this period forever already and we still have 144+ hours to go. lol The Euro and FV3 have been performing admirably at the 120 hour range, so I take comfort in the setup shown at 120 (i.e. low pressure in SE TX and sprawling HP over the top). Really, almost all modeling has this same basic setup with minor variations of the HP over the top. The biggest unknown I can see ....deals with the HP to the north and how it builds in over the top of the southern slider. Key will be the confluence to our northeast. If that lifts out quicker and/or the timing of the southern wave slows down even more, we likely see a further north low and more northerly track. I have seen many cases where strong HP over the top is pushed aside when there is nothing to hold it in place! Unfortunately at our latitude it wouldn’t take much to dash the hopes and dreams of those wanting snow. If the confluence holds, the HP likely holds and then we would be in business SOMEWHERE (maybe widespread) in our forum. i think yesterday’s solutions were about as suppressed as you will see and not very likely. Another big unknown seems to be dealing with possible northern energy diving in to the southern branch. That can be notoriously hard for models to pinpoint so if that is real, expect more changes in the next 2-3 days. Lastly I’d say let’s get this Pacific feature on land to see how modeling changes (as modeling will be able to run with a fully sampled feature). I don’t think this feature is in a data sparse area, but having it on land and being fully sampled won’t be a bad thing. Happy tracking. We should probably fire up a storm specific thread if modeling holds today at 12z in showing a potential early season winter storm. However we handle the other two non-specific winter threads is fine with me.
  18. tnweathernut
    The 6z GFS FV3 says “good morning”. Classic track for a heavy TN Valley snowstorm.
  19. tnweathernut
    How does the EPS compare to the OP? Can you see individuals? I wonder how many cutters there are at 12z vs 0z.
  20. tnweathernut
    I am encouraged by what I see on the EPS 10 to 15. You can see the troughing wanting to pull back west of Alaska. If that trend continues you will see a more pronounced ridge on the west coast. This would certainly help Canada keep most of its cold or at least mitigate the complete scouring of cold from a fire hose Pacific. All that to say it would make it easier here to get back into something potentially wintry quicker. Would be nice to have a workable late December pattern vs a mini torch. Good post, Grit.
  21. tnweathernut
    John, Thank you for all the work you put into this. Sure looks like a big piece of the winter puzzle is a positive one.
  22. tnweathernut
    Pretty impressive for late November. Helps solidify a solidly below normal month in the temperature department. Snow showers and flurries at my office in Erwin today. Nice to see some scoring snow in the air, and in some cases on the ground!
  23. tnweathernut
    Good post and I agree. With so many shortwaves involved the modeling will likely be much less reliable anyway. Prudent to point out an early season window of opportunity, IMO.
  24. tnweathernut
    Congrats on the win, Jeff. Pretty evenly matched teams...... and I think both will improve as the year goes on. Good luck the rest of the way. Would be awesome to catch Kansas again, deep in the tourney.
  25. tnweathernut
    Good post Carvers. Speaking of storms being so close together they can’t amplify....... I am probably in the minority, but I actually prefer those types of systems for our area. Just have to get the temperature profile right and then it’s game on with little worry about WAA. Give me a blocking to the northeast, a cold high pressing in from the north, and overrunning precip or weak vort passes south of us and I’d take that every time. Happy Thanksgiving everyone!
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