Scarlet Pimpernel

That's the best...when we've got something on the doorstep and other potential events to follow after!!! Better than grasping at shreds of hope during shit the blinds periods, by showing week 4 Euro weeklies and MJO charts!

...of the AmWx mid-Atlantic forum, in order to form a more perfect Snowftorm... (yes, I purposely used an "f" in snowstorm to make it look all late 18th century!!)

You can always hire a SKELETON crew to work on it! A unique fixer-upper opportunity! If it's condemned, that's what the Reaper would need!

I think that may be one of the lesser known original amendments to the (Weenie) Constitution!

Well, you do still own property here...i.e., the Panic Room...even if you're retired now!!

@mappy...Happened to notice in my search icon that today apparently is "Tulip Day!!!" (The search bar always shows some kind of "such and such day"!). Though perhaps you knew that since you like tulips! Which reminds me, come April or so I'll have to remember to post some tulip photos again if I can get some good ones then!

Thank you very much, good sir! I try to brighten things in here and impart some humor how I can even when things look pretty blah...while at the same time add some value and knowledge to the general storm and weather discussions. And I likewise appreciate your comments, love of good music (especially Beethoven!), and snow! Also, coffee and (in my case) alcoholic drinks are always good! There are a lot of people in here whom I appreciate and always look forward to reading (and met a few at a mid-Atlantic "get together" from 10 years ago!)...just to name several offhand, @stormtracker, @psuhoffman, @MillvilleWx, @Terpeast, @WxUSAF, @high risk, @mappy, @H2O, @yoda, @WxWatcher007, @Mrs.J, @Bob Chill, @ravensrule, @Scraff, @CAPE, @Jebman. (I've probably missed some, my apologies if I have!) Thanks for the community, the weather talk, and great times following all our snow events over the years!

Jeez, the mood swings and tearing of hair, gnashing of teeth in this place!!! You'd think we've gone from a HECS to a 70 degree wall-to-wall torch for the rest of the month given the tone of some posts! Yeah, I know, should be used to it by now in all the years I've been on this forum. But still. I checked some of the models and read some of the better posts in here and...honestly, you cannot ask for a much better placed to be at this point. As several others have said, and I agree, the potential and look starting around Jan. 22-24ish is great! Obviously, that's no guarantee we score anything (the usual caveat statement!). However, every model has been showing at least one and in many cases more than one solid event from next weekend through the end of the month. The ensembles likewise look solid (I think @mitchnick posted the snow means earlier?) and have for a little while now. This isn't some one-off where a stray deterministic run dumps on us one time and then it's gone forever and ensembles showing nothing. This is a fairly consistent indication of waves running into solid cold air...maybe at different times each model cycle but it keeps showing up and it's not being can-kicked. It's kind of like how @Bob Chill says...sometimes you see great looking ensemble means but "under the hood" there's not much there when you should see some good hits, which raises red flags; other times, you see great looking ensembles and there ARE good hits in there along with the same from deterministic models. So yeah, I gotta like what's under the hood here!

Are we in Guy Fawkes ("Guys-Folks") territory????

Yup, our last "true" HECS event area-wide, in 2016.

I thought Jan. 22-23, there about, was mostly looking like temp issues already anyhow? And it's mostly just after that where the cold is more in place? (ETA: Though true, some previous cycles have shown that to be cold enough I believe).

Ha! Well, in this case since I'm not really expecting much of anything for the Sunday event, "Ellinwood Gray" is actually looking pretty good...relatively speaking!!!

We're on the Harry Potter Knight Bus...ahhhhhhhh!

I've had more interest in that time period (and/or just after that) than anything for this weekend. As I said earlier in this thread, different deterministic models (GFS, Euro, CMC, whatever) have on and off shown some kind of really good event in that time. Sometimes even extreme. And the ensembles have as well. Sure, it would disappear and reappear in the deterministic models from run to run (and Ji would complain if an ensemble mean snow map lost us an inch!!), but it's shown up somewhat regularly in that time frame.