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About Disc

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
  • Gender
  • Location:
    Blacksburg, VA
  • Interests
    Severe weather, mesoscale meteorology. Snow is cool too, I guess.

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  1. Hey DISC, Thought I would let you know I registered my Weather Station with CWOP  tonight..... 

    ID- FW4485

    Thanks for all your insight on the forum, really appreciate it! 

    Take care!! 


  2. Disc

    January 12-13th Winter Storm Obs

    2.5" of packed snow, sleet, and ice. Had about 2" of snow last night before the sleet.. Light freezing mist/drizzle falling. 27.8 degrees.. bottomed out at 23 early this morning.
  3. Disc

    January 12-13th Winter Storm Obs

    Yeah, fortunately back to sleet, but it's been back and forth some.
  4. Disc

    January 12-13th Winter Storm Obs

    Well, so much for the snow. Quick transition over to sleet and freezing rain. Sitting at 24.5 degrees. I'm in trouble.
  5. Disc

    January 12-13th Winter Storm Obs

    24 degrees and moderate snow.
  6. Disc

    January 12-13th Winter Storm Obs

    25 degrees back on my weather station at home. Currently in a break from the precip, waiting on the arrival of the next round!
  7. Disc

    January 12-13th Cold Smoke Obs and Nowcast

    Very nice band of snow moving through down here. Hoping the snow/ice line will decide to setup just to my south.
  8. Disc

    January 12-13th Winter Storm Obs

    Some snow in Watauga, Ashe, and Alleghany Counties currently ongoing.
  9. Disc

    January 12-13th Winter Storm Obs

    Get it going into the CWOP program so the NWS gets data from it directly into our system. (hinthint)
  10. Disc

    January 12th-13th event

    Yes I am. The 'Burg is great. Roanoke and north is a pretty good bet at all snow. The 00Z GEFS spaghetti p-type plot showed mostly snow for ROA, with a very small chance (less the 25%) of mixing through the early morning hours on Sunday. Models have indeed trended a bit drier, so I think anything over 6" is unlikely at this point. The main show of precip will be from the WAA overunning.. once the transfer occurs, we'll likely begin to shutoff.
  11. Disc

    January 12th-13th event

    Quite a complicated forecast and is very fluid and changing. Again, from my experience here, the snow/ice line will be (in my opinion) a bit south of what the NAM and GFS are showing... CAD stronger than modeled. Surprise, surprise! Yes this low ends up moving to the west in a Miller B fashion, but it's so darn weak, so I just can't see WAA being overly strong and I believe it's being over modeled. So couple a stronger CAD and weaker WAA, I'm thinking a bit more snow to the south of 460 than a lot of models are showing. Areas that I have a higher confidence in mixing is Southside VA, as well as the NC Foothills and the NRV. Our most recent snow map shows this well. The change from ice, to snow, and back to ice is certainly plausible as the low begins to transfer from the TN valley to the coast. The tricky part is figuring out how long the mixing lasts and how far north it gets. (Again, goes back to how strong the WAA is.) Other thing would be to hope for heavier precip rates to overcome the marginal warm nose showing during the transfer. +1C to around +2C warm nose can be overcome if rates are high enough, but as soon as rates fall, you'll see a transition to ice/sleet. I hope that somewhat answers your question and wasn't too repetitive. Running on very little sleep ....!
  12. Disc

    January 12th-13th event

    NAM is lights out for NE GA, upstate SC, and NC mtns. 0.25" - 0.75" on the charts. NC mtns in the 20s almost the entire storm. Concerning.
  13. Disc

    January 12th-13th event

    He is copying a link that you need to be logged into to see the attachment. Here is the map.
  14. Disc

    January 12th-13th event