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About Disc

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    Sun Angle Conqueror
  • Birthday January 2

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
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  • Location:
    Blacksburg, VA
  • Interests
    Severe weather, mesoscale meteorology. Snow is cool too, I guess.

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  1. You were probably about spot on. My home wx station sits at 2,700ft in a slight bowl. Optimal radiation! You're gonna love that first arctic cold front. Winds gusting 40 to 50mph and single digit wind chills with snow squalls.
  2. 38.7 for the low on my wx station.
  3. A couple spots down into the upper 30s in the sheltered high elevation valley locations. Heat and some humidity coming back next week though.
  4. Subsidence zone on the western side of the system. (i.e breezy and partly sunny) I wouldn't get caught up in that right now. Much of Virginia is still in play depending on how far west it tracks.
  5. Disc


    Howdy neighbor! Welcome to the area. We'll certainly be keeping an eye on it here.
  6. Appears to be tracking almost over the Mall at Fairfield Commons. Densely populated area.
  7. TDS and a debris ball on it in reflectivity.
  8. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0699.html
  9. High risk expanded to include the OKC metro area. The discussion with this new update is scary. A serious outbreak of destructive, tornadic supercells is likely over parts of this region this afternoon into evening, especially in the high- and moderate-risk areas. Given the expected fast storm motions, especially mid-afternoon into evening, a few of the best-organized supercells may reach an equilibrium with their already very favorable mesoscale environments long enough to sustain wide, long-track tornadoes.
  10. Perhaps you weren't under the hail core of that particular storm? It's about being at the right place at the right time. However, not all storms produce severe hail. They are warned based on radar indications and a myriad of different other things the radar operator might see to warrant a severe thunderstorm warning. We do our best and make decisions on the data we have right in front of us. Hail is formed in the updraft of the storm and usually the stronger the updraft, the larger the hail. It will then fall once it's able to overcome the updraft's strength.
  11. Just now seeing this as I haven't been on. I will comment that there has been research done with intra-cloud lightning preceding an uptick in severe potential and it's usually a better indicator than CG. Many times, storms will only have intra-cloud at the beginning of their life, whereas CGs don't follow until later on. As an example, the graph below shows a scenario where you see a large uptick in intra-cloud just before there is a large jump in MESH and a hail report of up to 6". When looking at the CGs, it tends to remain much more constant, with little to no trends.
  12. A very impressive storm for this area. Stronger than the Feb Appomattox tornado in 2016 and the Elon/Amherst tornado of last year. Both were also EF3s. Edit: For some reason the animation won't work here. I guess it's not supported. So here's a link: https://i.imgur.com/aBXa6ku.gifv