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Winter Wizard

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About Winter Wizard

  • Birthday 12/28/1996

Profile Information

  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    KILG
  • Gender
    Male
  • Location:
    State College, PA/Wilmington, DE

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  1. Just measured 2.6 inches in downtown State College.
  2. As of 4z, here is the approximate rain/snow line across our area. It appears to be on the doorstep of Bedford and propagating slowly northeastward. Looks like the 0z NAM so far has been pretty spot on as far as the mixing line in our area as well as 850 temperatures across the region, although it did miss the initial precip across the PHL area and South Jersey.
  3. That makes sense given the transfer of energy from the primary low to the secondary low.
  4. Already moderate snow in State College. Encouraging to see the radar blossoming from Bellefonte to Johnstown already.
  5. Honestly confused why CTP raised UNV, if anything I’ve become more bearish based on modeling trends today. With an anticipated transition around 12z, I’m struggling to see how we get to 7 inches even if it includes sleet unless there are crazy snow rates to start, which isn’t really supported by VV or forcing. I would also be mindful of a dry slot across C PA late Tuesday as the secondary low develops. I think this would limit our window for plain rain locally at least.
  6. IPT is probably in the best spot among major cities in this subforum.
  7. Less than an inch in round 1 in State College. Based on recent model trends, I'd go with an area of 4-7 inches extending from the Laurels to north of I-80 and across NEPA with 2-4 inches in the LSV. Like with 11/15 and 1/20, how much snow we get depends on how strong the WAA thump is. I'm not sure I buy such a prolonged period of freezing rain that the NAM is showing but regardless, travel will be quite hazardous tomorrow. Great post earlier by @djr5001 showing the comparison between obs and soundings from this morning. Models have a tendency to underestimate the warm air between 850 and 700 mb, so would not surprise me to see an earlier transition from snow as a result.
  8. Winter Wizard

    Parts 1 and 2 Obs - 2/10-2/12 Winter Storm

    Hearing about 3 inches in Wilmington with moderate snow falling.
  9. Approaching 4 inches in State College now with moderate to heavy snow persisting.
  10. Heavy snow here in State College, probably 3 inches or so.
  11. Heavy snow in State College. Solid band of 30+ DBZ returns currently bisecting 322 and moving northeast.
  12. Winter Wizard

    Central PA - Winter 2018-19

    We should root for a stronger system to move in Thursday night into Friday since that would shift the baroclinic zone farther south, allowing this weekend's event to track farther south. Thursday night's system seems like a general 2-4" event across most of the region. For this weekend, I would definitely be more concerned about the ice threat as opposed to snow, especially if I lived N and W of Interstate 81. There is a definite cold air damming signal, which CTP alluded to in the discussion, and it is often underestimated by the models leading up to events of this nature. That being said, strong frontogenetic lifting associated with warm air advection could lead to a solid burst of snow at the start across Central PA Saturday night, as hinted by the 18z GFS. The key to overperforming in this system would be to get strong rates at the start, which would cool the column and allow cold air to stick around longer. Definitely something to watch over the next few days.
  13. Winter Wizard

    Jan 12-13 Snow Event Obs and discussion

    I've never seen such a sharp cutoff in snow between my house and ILG before. We got only around 2 inches at my house while areas just barely south of me got at least 5.
  14. Winter Wizard

    Central PA Fall 2018

    February 13, 2014 and March 2017 were probably the closest to that but both still had a very sharp western cutoff.
  15. Winter Wizard

    Central PA Fall 2018

    Best part about this storm was that everyone in this forum cashed in! It’s been a long time since we could say that about a storm. Hopefully this is a sign of things to come this winter.
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