Winter Wizard

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About Winter Wizard

  • Birthday 12/28/1996

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  • Location:
    Annapolis, MD

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  1. Interestingly the 12z GEFS has jumped considerably NW in the SLP track and ensemble mean. Now shows 0.5"+ for everyone south and east of Frederick.
  2. Looks like the final total here in Annapolis was right around 1.2".
  3. Yellow-banded here in Annapolis. RadarScope estimate has us around 0.4” so far today.
  4. Looks like it's all from the primary low, especially N and W of DC. As soon as the transfer occurs, precip shuts off rapidly from W to E. Huge dry slot through central PA and NW Virginia. Let's hope this storm isn't a sign of things to come in the winter.
  5. So far it's advancing at a pretty steady pace. As of October 11, Siberia had the second highest coverage over the past decade trailing only 2014.
  6. Essentially a Miller B. The latest GFS has the primary vort holding strong all the way to Ontario before fully transferring off the coast of Mass. We all get some rain from the initial low but re-development is way, way too late for us to get in on the good stuff. The Euro, on the other hand was much closer to rainier solution as it had an earlier transfer (DE coast) and stronger secondary low, which brought the deluge into PHL and even far northeastern MD. Will be interesting to see the trends at 12z. I do wonder if the GFS is being too progressive, especially since the 6z GEFS re-developed the secondary farther south and west than the operational.
  7. Had a decent band of rain earlier today in Annapolis, which brought us 0.11” in total. Photo is from Instagram but there was pretty significant coastal flooding near the Bay, which made things extra interesting for the Boat Show this weekend.
  8. Another deluge of 0.01” here in Annapolis overnight.
  9. Pretty stark contrast between last night's 0z GEFS and EPS runs for next week. EPS is much weaker with the troughing over the central US, which allows the southeast ridge to flex its muscles out ahead of it and torches the east through the 17th. The GEFS meanwhile continues to show a strong trough over the northern Plains that gradually moves east, which would put us solidly below normal through the 19th or so.
  10. Yup, we actually were under a solid band for a bit around 11 last night. Tonight is a pretty tricky forecast but I think there's a decent chance we see at least some rain.
  11. Looks like we had a whopping 0.05" of rain last night here in Annapolis. Solid deluge.
  12. If all else fails, persistence forecasting is usually the way to go, though it's nearly impossible to predict the NAO this far out with any kind of skill.
  13. I would exercise caution about using summertime NAO as a means to predict the wintertime NAO. I looked back at the NAO index from 1989-2018 and of those 30 years, just 13 had a pos/pos or neg/neg relationship, which is good for an r-value of just 0.09. Aka no correlation. Additionally, there have been 9 summers prior to 2019 (1993, 1998, 2000, 2008, 2009, 2011, 2012, 2015, 2016) where the NAO index has averaged less than -1. Among those years, a -NAO in DJF was observed in only 2 of the subsequent winters.
  14. Both the latest EPS and GEFS have a fairly strong signal of a -NAO locking in around the 10th or so while the PNA returns to a neutral state and the MJO meanders between phases 8 and 1. Analog guidance is pretty bullish about a flip to a colder-than-normal pattern by mid-month.
  15. Ended up at an astounding 98 degrees in Wilmington yesterday. Not only was this the warmest day in October on record, it was also the warmest day of all of 2019.