Feb 22nd/23rd "There's no way..." Storm Thread

[psuhoffman]

Just now, Ji said:

NAM wasnt that far from a boom...fix the northern stream like the GFS. 

He got jokes 

[Cobalt]

20 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

Rufus looks more amped through 60 hours than 12z

It’s honestly pretty close to a substantial solution. 0.5”-1.2” QPF extending from DC southeast with more still to come. 

[dsnowman]

Thats a legit ULL, we’ve gotten something like this before when getting missed by the coastal itself

The last panel of the NAM has it turning back west (994 to 990), what’s that about?


.

[Solution Man]

Just now, Cobalt said:

It’s honestly pretty close to a substantial solution. 0.5”-1.2” QPF extending from DC southeast with more still to come. 

Nice event, we still score

[Jake Wx]

icon looking better through 42

[mitchnick]

3 minutes ago, Solution Man said:

Nice event, we still score

It's mainly rain

[ravensrule]

14 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Probably going to Houston.  I can use the NAM's inch to get out of that

You only need 1" to stay home?. 

[arlwx12]

The 344 LWX snip...

Unfortunately, the 12z model suites did nothing to help try to nail
down a particular solution. On one end with the GEFS ensembles, we
have seen an upward trend snow probabilities. However, in the latest
EPS, the probabilities have dropped for portions of the area. Looking
just at 3" snow probs in this timeframe, EPS dropped around 5-10% on
average, while the GEFS jumped up significantly. The 12z Canadian
ensembles also trended down, and by a good bit more than the EPS. I
think this may ultimately translate to a net-zero change when it
comes to the afternoon run of the NBM, but it will take some time to
get that information, which may be elaborated more in the evening
discussion.

As described above, there are a substantial number of very complex
variables at play here, and all of them have to come together at
just the right time in just the right place in order for us to get
snow, and especially significant snow. At present, there are three
scenarios at play here.

 1) The phase of all of these upper level features occurs too late,
    with low development offshore and too far southeast.

 2) Similar to scenario 1, but an inverted trough on the back side of
    the low brings snow to eastern portions of the region.

 3) Low develops closer to shore and strengthens along Delmarva
    Peninsula, resulting in the most snow for our areas.


Exactly how all this occurs will be the difference between a couple
of strung out waves passing through with little fanfare, a modestly
impactful period of snow showers, and a more significant wintry
precip event. We are firmly in the "wait and see" period with this
storm, so just take precautions now, should the worst case scenario
play out. Having a preparedness kit stocked up is never a bad idea.

Lastly, no matter what plays out further east, it seems much more
likely that the mountains will see another round of upslope snow.
The key here will be with how much we manage to get. That will
depend on the storm track as well, but it seems much more likely for
at least advisory level accumulations through the Sunday/Monday
period along/west of the Allegheny Front.

Of note, the higher sun angle later in the season becomes a factor
especially for lower elevations if precip occurs during the day.
Cold air will also filtering into the region as the storm in
question approaches, rather than being locked-in beforehand, which
offers another layer of uncertainty in p-type.

 

[Cobalt]

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

It's mainly rain

It’s definitely marginal, but much closer to the solution we want than 12z. 

[wasnow215]

12 minutes ago, Ji said:

NAM wasnt that far from a boom...fix the northern stream like the GFS. 

Exactly. I don't understand it's totally different than it was at 12 Z why was everybody so negative about the nam (and let's be clear), 84 hours out for Pete sake

[Nomz]

6 minutes ago, arlwx12 said:

The 344 LWX snip...

Unfortunately, the 12z model suites did nothing to help try to nail
down a particular solution. On one end with the GEFS ensembles, we
have seen an upward trend snow probabilities. However, in the latest
EPS, the probabilities have dropped for portions of the area. Looking
just at 3" snow probs in this timeframe, EPS dropped around 5-10% on
average, while the GEFS jumped up significantly. The 12z Canadian
ensembles also trended down, and by a good bit more than the EPS. I
think this may ultimately translate to a net-zero change when it
comes to the afternoon run of the NBM, but it will take some time to
get that information, which may be elaborated more in the evening
discussion.

As described above, there are a substantial number of very complex
variables at play here, and all of them have to come together at
just the right time in just the right place in order for us to get
snow, and especially significant snow. At present, there are three
scenarios at play here.

 1) The phase of all of these upper level features occurs too late,
    with low development offshore and too far southeast.

 2) Similar to scenario 1, but an inverted trough on the back side of
    the low brings snow to eastern portions of the region.

 3) Low develops closer to shore and strengthens along Delmarva
    Peninsula, resulting in the most snow for our areas.


Exactly how all this occurs will be the difference between a couple
of strung out waves passing through with little fanfare, a modestly
impactful period of snow showers, and a more significant wintry
precip event. We are firmly in the "wait and see" period with this
storm, so just take precautions now, should the worst case scenario
play out. Having a preparedness kit stocked up is never a bad idea.

Lastly, no matter what plays out further east, it seems much more
likely that the mountains will see another round of upslope snow.
The key here will be with how much we manage to get. That will
depend on the storm track as well, but it seems much more likely for
at least advisory level accumulations through the Sunday/Monday
period along/west of the Allegheny Front.

Of note, the higher sun angle later in the season becomes a factor
especially for lower elevations if precip occurs during the day.
Cold air will also filtering into the region as the storm in
question approaches, rather than being locked-in beforehand, which
offers another layer of uncertainty in p-type.

 

Sun angle!

[LP08]

Rgem some marginal steps better, better than getting worse

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

So will the gfs cave all in one run or does it slowly walk back our BECS?

[mappy]

Just now, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

So will the gfs cave all in one run or does it slowly walk back our BECS?

50” for the entire subforum 

[Jake Wx]

uptrend from the 18z icon

[baltosquid]

H5 looked a bit better for both the RGEM and ICON but still letting the surface get away from us before we could capture. Rather this than getting worse but a long ways to go to get anywhere near the GFS of even 06z, let alone 12z.

[Climate175]

2 minutes ago, mappy said:

50” for the entire subforum 

That would be hysterical. 

[LP08]

both Rgem and ICON get the IVT and both in almost the same spot offshore at 84

[winter_warlock]

Just now, Jake Wx said:

uptrend from the 18z icon

Babysteps!!

[mappy]

Just now, Climate175 said:

That would be hysterical. 

I mean it might as well go big before it finally comes back to earth and gives favored areas 3 of slush in the grass 

[midatlanticweather]

2 minutes ago, mappy said:

I mean it might as well go big before it finally comes back to earth and gives favored areas 3 of slush in the grass 

I agree. 

[baltosquid]

ICON-EPS has one lonely captured member… this is an improvement from 12z, when it had none.

[psuhoffman]

I need someone to stop the slow bleed of the IVT northeast every damn run. Y’all are focused on the lost cause coastal but that IVT is realistically our only shot and has no one else noticed it’s slowly bleeding like 10-20 miles northeast every run!  If that keeps up it’s gonna end up congrats Philly or even NYC by the time this gets here. 

[Interstate]

Well the nice thing is this will be quick... one way or the other.

[bncho]

1 minute ago, baltosquid said:

ICON-EPS has one lonely captured member… this is an improvement from 12z, when it had none.

Mathematically that’s an increase of Infinity percent.

[stormtracker]

Yall ready for the biggest cave in GFS history?  Bout to dig into some 90 minute Dogfish and some sushi and watch the modern day Hindenburg.  Not even reverse psychology can stop this beast

[Interstate]

Just now, stormtracker said:

Yall ready for the biggest cave in GFS history?  Bout to dig into some 90 minute Dogfish and some sushi and watch the modern day Hindenburg.  Not even reverse psychology can stop this beast

You do not need reverse psychology... this is happening

[Jake Wx]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

I need someone to stop the slow bleed of the IVT northeast every damn run. Y’all are focused on the lost cause coastal but that IVT is realistically our only shot and has no one else noticed it’s slowly bleeding like 10-20 miles northeast every run!  If that keeps up it’s gonna end up congrats Philly or even NYC by the time this gets here. 

not sure its been trending north east more like west

[psuhoffman]

7 minutes ago, Jake Wx said:

uptrend from the 18z icon

It’s not it’s shifted the axis of the IVT slightly east AGAIN!   

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

The crazy part is we know the gfs is wrong, it’s gotten its clock cleaned all winter, yet here we are awaiting it at 18z.  lol something wrong with us.