WxUnit
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Exton PA
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Some potential beginning to show up next week with more consistent warmth and moisture setting in. Multiple days are showing up both on the CIPS and the CSU prediction models, the SPC also gave a mention On Wednesday and Thursday, the cold front is forecast to move slowly southeastward across the southern Plains and mid Mississippi Valley, extending east-northeastward into the Mid-Atlantic. A severe threat could develop along and ahead of the front each afternoon and evening. However, uncertainty concerning the exact location of the front is substantial at this extended range.
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00z Euro had an interesting look for next Thursday. Decent shear and placement of the low, would like to see some more instability though. Still, its far out and possibly something to track over the next week.
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E PA/NJ/DE Spring 2026 Obs/Discussion
WxUnit replied to PhiEaglesfan712's topic in Philadelphia Region
This is exactly what I think. The low level jet is so strong with this event I and think the general region is bound to see some very strong winds mixing down to the surface with storms. I also think we can't rule out the earlier supercell threat, which some models are hinting at in southeast PA. -
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The band looks to be expanding out a little more each radar scan. Would love to see it expand out into the burbs for everyone. Would be great to see.
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Current sitting at 34.5⁰F with light snow falling. No accumulation yet, probably won't see much until late afternoon.
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Either the GFS or EURO are totally wrong. Whats weird is it starts with the difference in northern stream about 6 hours out. So strange and unprecedented to my eye.
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His reasoning is mainly the positive NAO. He just doesn't think the storm is ever going to tilt negative, which by now its conceivable it almost certainly will. He just sees a progressive and positive orientation.
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To keep a long story short, Hurricane still doesn't buy the GFS solution. Though he does like 4-8 for the city with a chance for more.
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For what its worth he was going off the 12z runs rather then the 18z runs.
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Feb 22nd/23rd "There's no way..." Storm Thread
WxUnit replied to Maestrobjwa's topic in Mid Atlantic
Check out the precipitation shift between 12z and 18z on the EPS. As PSU mentioned, right here it looks like the coastal being closer helps to intensify the inverted trough. I'm trying to keep expectations in check but it sure feels good to be back in the game for this one! -
Feb 22nd/23rd "There's no way..." Storm Thread
WxUnit replied to Maestrobjwa's topic in Mid Atlantic
I am really encouraged by the trend on the last few GEFS runs. Continues to bring the cluster of lows closer to the coast and decrease the spread of the members. Great to see at this range.
