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WxUnit

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Everything posted by WxUnit

  1. WxUnit
    Wow
  2. WxUnit
    Tornado watch out for the area, goes until 9pm. 40% Tornado, 40% hail, 70% wind probabilities.
  3. WxUnit
    Radar does look pretty bad for anything of significance. Seems odd to me with all we had at play today that we seem to be failing. Oh well
  4. WxUnit
    Almost like 2023 with the red glow during the sunset and through the smoke.
  5. WxUnit
    Need to monitor both Friday and Saturday for severe weather. As of right now Saturday looks to have the best potential.
  6. WxUnit
    SPC mentions both Friday and Saturday have very similar severe setups. A slight risk was added to the northern areas in the new Day 3 outlook with higher potential mentioned as well.
  7. WxUnit
    Earlier in the Exton PA area where the rotating storm went just north. Was able to photograph a funnel cloud from it. Was rapidly rotating like nothing Ive seen before.
  8. WxUnit
    Supercell coming into Chester County with decent rotation. Large rotating wall cloud already reported on it.
  9. WxUnit
    WPC has a slight risk of excessive rainfall and seems to indicate some areas could see 2+ inches of rain. "Current probs off the latest ensembles and National Blend indicate a large zone of 30-50% probs for >2" across the aforementioned area above with deterministic outputs closer to 2-3.5" into parts of Southern New England. The 00z HREF (only covers through 00Z 6/23) and 00Z REFS indicate 30-60% neighborhood probabilities for at least 2" per 6-hrs from D.C. to NYC and would be enough for some urban flash flooding concerns."
  10. WxUnit
    Probabilities of all severe hazards seemed to go up significantly between the 6z and 12z runs. Definitely worthy of a watch for the next couple of days.
  11. WxUnit
    I wouldnt really throw in the towel yet. The NAM runs, while still an overall miss, trended better. This system itself is also super dynamic and is expected to spawn a tornado outbreak in the Midwest the day before. I would never count out a strong low pressure system moving just to our north at this time of year. I think this is one that could surprise.
  12. WxUnit
    Some potential beginning to show up next week with more consistent warmth and moisture setting in. Multiple days are showing up both on the CIPS and the CSU prediction models, the SPC also gave a mention On Wednesday and Thursday, the cold front is forecast to move slowly southeastward across the southern Plains and mid Mississippi Valley, extending east-northeastward into the Mid-Atlantic. A severe threat could develop along and ahead of the front each afternoon and evening. However, uncertainty concerning the exact location of the front is substantial at this extended range.
  13. WxUnit
    00z Euro had an interesting look for next Thursday. Decent shear and placement of the low, would like to see some more instability though. Still, its far out and possibly something to track over the next week.
  14. WxUnit
    This is exactly what I think. The low level jet is so strong with this event I and think the general region is bound to see some very strong winds mixing down to the surface with storms. I also think we can't rule out the earlier supercell threat, which some models are hinting at in southeast PA.
  15. WxUnit
    Pretty good cell going in West Virginia. Tagged for a possible tornado as well.
  16. WxUnit
    A nice secondary band appears to have formed further west. Moderate snow and 28.8⁰F.
  17. WxUnit
    The band looks to be expanding out a little more each radar scan. Would love to see it expand out into the burbs for everyone. Would be great to see.
  18. WxUnit
    Returns coming out of Delaware are very encouraging!
  19. WxUnit
    Current sitting at 34.5⁰F with light snow falling. No accumulation yet, probably won't see much until late afternoon.
  20. WxUnit
    For reference at six hours out...
  21. WxUnit
    Either the GFS or EURO are totally wrong. Whats weird is it starts with the difference in northern stream about 6 hours out. So strange and unprecedented to my eye.
  22. WxUnit
    His reasoning is mainly the positive NAO. He just doesn't think the storm is ever going to tilt negative, which by now its conceivable it almost certainly will. He just sees a progressive and positive orientation.
  23. WxUnit
    To keep a long story short, Hurricane still doesn't buy the GFS solution. Though he does like 4-8 for the city with a chance for more.
  24. WxUnit
    For what its worth he was going off the 12z runs rather then the 18z runs.
  25. WxUnit
    Check out the precipitation shift between 12z and 18z on the EPS. As PSU mentioned, right here it looks like the coastal being closer helps to intensify the inverted trough. I'm trying to keep expectations in check but it sure feels good to be back in the game for this one!
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