VA Mad Man

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About VA Mad Man

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    Great Falls, VA
  1. MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0243 NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 228 PM EDT THU MAY 31 2018 AREAS AFFECTED......EASTERN WV TO NORTHERN VA AND THE DC TO BALTIMORE METRO... CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE VALID 311827Z - 010027Z SUMMARY...HEAVY SHOWERS/STORMS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE EAST ACROSS EASTERN WV AND MD/NORTHERN AND CENTRAL VA THIS AFTERNOON. PRIOR RAINS HAVE RESULTED IN AREAS PRONE TO FLASH FLOODING SO PATCHES OF 1-3 INCHES OF RAIN COULD CAUSE FLOODING. DISCUSSION...REGIONAL RADARS AND SATELLITE HAVE SHOWN AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS EASTERN WV AND WESTERN MD EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN VA AND CENTRAL MD INTO THE WASHINGTON DC AND BALTIMORE CORRIDOR EITHER LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION AND DEEP MOISTURE WITH IMPRESSIVE MID 70S DEWPOINTS FURTHER EAST SUPPORT ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS ...AIDED BY LIFT CREATED BY UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE MAXIMA AND A WARM FRONT CROSSING NORTHERN VA/MD. THE MORNING SOUNDING FROM DULLES VA INDICATED SURFACE-500 MB RELATIVE HUMIDITY OF 90 PERCENT...SO SHOWERS WILL BE EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCERS. THESE AREAS HAVE RECEIVED HEAVY RAINS LAST NIGHT OR EARLIER THIS WEEK SO ARE PRONE TO FLOODING IF ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINS OCCUR. SOME FLASH FLASH GUIDANCE IS AS LOW AS HALF AN INCH IN 6 HOURS IN THE CHARLOTTESVILLE VA AREA WHERE HEAVY RAIN FELL LAST NIGHT. THERE ARE A COUPLE OF DIFFERENT BANDS WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF MORE THAN ONE BAND IMPACTING A GIVEN LOCATIONS...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN TOTALS. INFLOW FROM SOUTHERN VA HAS NEAR 1500-2000 J/KG OF MIXED LAYER CAPE...WITH OUTFLOWS PROVIDING WELL DEFINED BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE...SO ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS ARE EXPECTED. THE WRF ARW AND ARW 2 AND THE 15-16Z HIGH RES RAPID REFRESH SHOW SPOTTY 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN WITH MAXIMA TO 3 INCHES WHERE CELL MERGERS...BRIEF TRAINING OR MORE THAN ONE ROUND OF SHOWERS/STORMS OCCUR. PETERSEN
  2. Streets are finally starting to get covered with snow here in Silver Spring
  3. That dude (WeathermanB) is an oxygen thief
  4. DC Public Schools are closed tomorrow. They are usually the last to close.
  5. Any guess on when we are upgraded to a Warning? 12Z suite?
  6. Not so fast. Just an Advisory for Montgomery County (so far).....please correct me if I’m wrong.
  7. Is all of the energy on shore yet on the west coast? If not..... won’t that alter the solutions somewhat?
  8. And let the jackpot be in Silver Spring!
  9. The most valid post I have ever seen on this forum.
  10. Had to quote Bob Chill out of posterity. No other comment needed.
  11. Fell out of my chair - pants tent comment.
  12. As another lurker and infrequent poster I totally agree with KingJWx. That is all.
  13. And first flakes in Silver Spring
  14. When was the last time the NAM was spot on in calling a winter storm?