Random Chaos

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  1. Turned into a major ice storm here outside Annapolis. Looks like around 1/3" accretion.
  2. Freezing rain and temperatures have dropped back below freezing.
  3. This looks ugly from HRRR (via https://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/hrrr/HRRR/Welcome.cgi?dsKey=hrrr_ncep_jet )
  4. Most likely the cruise line will divert and/or go around the storm. The storm is moving at only 8mph which gives a cruise ship plenty of room to maneuver. But still a bit of a head scratcher.
  5. One thing that could be preventing an ERC is what appears to be a light consistent easterly shear, which is most evident by the continually reduced convection on the western side. If you think about the properties that make an annular hurricane (and I am by no means saying that Dorian is annular), these are typically light persistent shear, cooler water than what should typically support the system (though not always required), and a lack of banding. This results in a lack of ERCs. With the exception of the cooler water, Dorian has the other properties, and isn't undergoing an ERC (nor does recon indicate any secondary wind maxima developing).
  6. I just took some surface readings of the Chesapeake Bay with my IR temperature gun - not the most accurate, but gives a good idea: 26-27F. Ground is still a bit mushy (not frozen) but the grass is getting very cold too - sub-25F everywhere I checked. Even though the air temperature is still reading 36.4F. I don't know how well calibrated the temperature gun is, but I've used it before and it seemed pretty accurate in warmer weather.
  7. My temps right now: Outside Temperature 36.4°F Wind Chill 29.7°F Heat Index 36.4°F Dewpoint 18.1°F
  8. Several hours after the changeover from ZR to rain, and a heavy line comes through, the sounding still looks very cold, and only a fraction of a degree drop at the surface and this will still be ZR. 6z NAM at 9pm from near Odenton:
  9. Around 18 hours before event. HRRRX is up to 36 hours, but...uh... it's at https://ruc.noaa.gov/hrrr/ which is....shutdown... (unless someone knows somewhere else that currently has it?)
  10. FV3 at 6z looks good too. R/S line slightly north, but at this range 3 runs in a row on a January 1st storm is nice to see! Still fantasy-land, but nice to see!
  11. I did like the look of the upper levels and temps after the 15th better on the weeklies - but maybe we can squeak one out first
  12. Since you brought this up...I'd been hesitating on posting it because we're in the realm of fantasy at 2 weeks out...but....here is the FV3. In two weeks we'll all look back at this post and say "if only that could have been":