Jump to content

mitchnick

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    28,838

  • Joined

 Content Type 

Everything posted by mitchnick

  1. mitchnick
    If you're referring to the Eps, I agree. Except you can see a dip in the height lines in the GOA not too far from the one on the Geps. Suggesting maybe it might be showing some blue in the GOA in future runs....OK, look real hard then! Lol
  2. mitchnick
    Average for last 5 days ending 384 hours off the 0z Geps fwiw.
  3. mitchnick
    Got a touch over .6" in the last 40 minutes with more rain to come. I guess an inch is possible based on radar, but that may be stretching it.
  4. mitchnick
    Well, by the shadings, it hasn't in the past been nailing any areas. But has been doing better in some areas over others. For example, last year it did well in parts of the MW, NE, and MA while missing out west. Plus, the bottom map is an average over the last 30 years from what I'm seeing; probably the top one too. I wonder how accuracy would change if only looking back the last 5 years when there are obviously improvements with modeling. I don't know about you, but there is an obvious concerted effort by the CC monetaryists, if I may call them that, to poo-poo any seasonal forecast that isn't a wall-to-wall Conus toaster oven. And I would put Jonathan Wall into that category based on the 100+ posts he's made that have shown up on this Board. Nobody knows with certainty how this winter will play out other than odds definitely favor AN in many areas of the Conus. But efforts to contradict/attack seasonal modeling are always a red flag to me.
  5. mitchnick
    SE yes. But it does climo or better in other areas.
  6. mitchnick
    I wonder if the Cfs2 winter 23/24 temp forecast from 9/11/23 was discounted? I guarantee you it was...but it would have been by me! Lol https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/cfsv2_fcst_history/202309/htmls/usT2me3Mon.html They're not always climo come September. Cfs2 was actually on the right path come early September, 2023.
  7. mitchnick
    Worst at BWI was 22/23 with .2". Lol I wasn't living there, thank God, but it was no snowfest up here either. 72/73 was 2nd worse at 1.2", which remember well and which turned me into a full blown weenie as we had 2 WSW that yielded nothing and hit ROA to ORF. At least 1", if not all, of that 72/73 snowfall was an arctic front in 2/73. Lol if anybody up north wonders why I am the way I am when when it comes to snowfall, just find the annual snowfall numbers from BWI from 1972 thru 2019. The mental trauma is epic.
  8. mitchnick
    Yep. Bwi had 6 or 7" on a Sunday night in December 1983 that wasn't expected. It hit Phl similarly I believe. 97/98 was a dog at Bwi with a couple inches for the season. My current location totalled around a foot for the 97/98 season.
  9. mitchnick
    That and 6 hours of nearly nonstop thunder snow imby...along with the 4" that fell between Noon and 1pm. Lol
  10. mitchnick
    How does using Jan-Mar look? My guess is that Nov & Dec have the greatest +anomalies, but I could be wrong of course.
  11. mitchnick
    Yeehah!
  12. mitchnick
    So you've gone over to the dark side too, ehh? Lol
  13. mitchnick
    Cfs2 has been coming in along those lines too in recent forecasts fwiw.
  14. mitchnick
    Yes, I understand. But I found it interesting because Enso 4 anomalies and SST are both cooling, Enso 3 and 3.4 anomalies and SST are both warming, while 4 temps are cooling while anomalies are warming.
  15. mitchnick
    Interesting how despite the 1+2 positive anomalies, the actual temperature of 1+2 continues to drop.
  16. mitchnick
    Looks like the Cfs2 has maintained October with the last strong WWB based on this attached 800/850 chart and plumes (not attached.)
  17. mitchnick
    Papers by people who have an agenda or financed by those in a position to profit? Idk, just asking. I find it hard to believe anything I read when comes to any issue that's been politicized. And even when results are true, mundane results can be hyped or sensationalized to create a false impression of importance/urgency. Like making a big deal about the rising of a few tenths of a degree in a very small portion of the Pacific off S. America when the record was 29 years ago. I mean if GW was so urgent, it wouldn't have taken 29 years to beat the record by a few tenths of a degree. That doesn't strike me as a "rapidly shifting climate."
  18. mitchnick
    My take is that we're .1 or .2 warmer than 1997, some 29 years ago, and despite the warming/warnings, neither the world nor mankind has ended as a result of GW. Enjoy the weekend all.
  19. mitchnick
    Good thing you chose meteorology over politics! Lol
  20. mitchnick
    I'd consider a rain changing to a minor snow accumulation this December a victory. And that's coming from an eternal optimist.
  21. mitchnick
    I not talking about effects now. I'm talking about how things go come October and November which would give a better clue than a few days at the end of August/early September. That was the original subject of my post.
  22. mitchnick
    Getting a heck of a light show down here from that Harrisburg area cluster.
  23. mitchnick
    Same here. I think the I95 folks haven't been as lucky, or unlucky, depending on whether you like to mow grass <which I do not!>
  24. mitchnick
    Actually, I'm with you. I get Chuck's position as he's expressed his concern several times over the the main Enso thread. But I just think it's a little early to be concerned about it. We need to see how the Niño develops and when it starts to fade, then we can worry...and with the best of them too! Lol
  25. mitchnick
    I luv ya' Chuck, but come on. A few days of weather the end of August/early September really can't be tied to the upcoming winter. Coincidence? ...at best, but nothing more.
×
×
  • Create New...