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mitchnick

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Everything posted by mitchnick

  1. mitchnick
    What do the precip maps look like?
  2. mitchnick
    6 hour Gefs qpf from 18z at 144hrs on top and Eps on the bottom. Lol
  3. mitchnick
    I looked at qpf on the JMA and in the DCA/BWI area the scale increased by 2 levels (.5") and 1 level (.25") imby. Heaviest precip on the JMA is in central VA and south and they're likely rain or mix at best. Iow, JMA ain't close to what the Gfs is showing.
  4. mitchnick
    A 1 in a 19 year event. At least the odds are in our favor for once.
  5. mitchnick
    18z run ends at 144hrs, so you'll have to wait for 0z.
  6. mitchnick
    In light of the difference in placement of the Great Lakes slp, I would have thought the Euro would be further north with the southern system. Heck of a lot more space with the Euro.
  7. mitchnick
    Odds favor 18z Gfs won't look like 12z. No consistency when it comes to snow "threats" all winter.
  8. mitchnick
    You never know how they are going to shake out, so you just roll the dice with guidance consensus.
  9. mitchnick
    Everything says a legit SSW event starting 3/11. Chilly end of March into April as a result is a good bet and just maybe an anomalous late season snow somewhere in the east.
  10. mitchnick
    All the ensembles are at .75"+. Forget the operationals, especially the Gfs.
  11. mitchnick
    I don't think the existence or non-existence of that storm in any way changes my need for counseling services.
  12. mitchnick
    That's why I always said you want to be in the bullseye area with the season's first synoptic event. Not necessarily "the" bullseye, but the bullseye stripe or area.
  13. mitchnick
    A lot of Nina conditions except for SSTA won't even allow it to be categorized as an official Niña oddly.
  14. mitchnick
    The refreshing thing is that next year won't look like that, but there's no support for it in the first place.
  15. mitchnick
    It never ends. Icon
  16. mitchnick
    Today's updated March Cansips looking warm neutral to me. Here's a link to December. You can scroll forward from there. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cansips&region=global&pkg=ssta_noice&runtime=2025030100&fh=9 On a different note, looks like a decent amount of blocking through the winter with cold along the northern tier into the MA fwiw.
  17. mitchnick
    I think this winter proved indisputably that using alphabet indexes exclusively for winter forecasting is far from a lock. To assume those indexes can be accurately forecasted in advance is equally as risky imho. Then throw in the nuances like variability during the winter and trends over the winter contrary to the anticipated final number (switching from + to - and vica versa) to name just a few, and it's accuracy is a cr@p shoot.
  18. mitchnick
    Your rolled forward didn't work this winter with the warmth and the PDO rose above -1 from -2, so it's not a guarantee, like everything else in weather prediction.
  19. mitchnick
    Almost there fwiw.
  20. mitchnick
  21. mitchnick
    AI is south and not much. Looks more like a front. Completely lost the storm look. P.s. comes out early since yesterday's upgrade
  22. mitchnick
    It's 10:1 and temps are marginal,so it overdone even if it occurred as depicted. So it would still be a fail imby in all likelihood acting as the final dagger in the back of this winter by missing me to the north instead of south. Do I have the weenie mentality down or what? Lol
  23. mitchnick
    You mean spring?
  24. mitchnick
    That explains the jump in VA & WVA on the 24hr snowfall mean.
  25. mitchnick
    18z AI keeps it south.
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