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mitchnick

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Everything posted by mitchnick

  1. mitchnick
    These youngsters will never learn
  2. mitchnick
    New to the area, ehh? Scraff can give you the name of the drinking holes if ur interested, I'm sure.
  3. mitchnick
    This oughta' send JI into a fit of rage.
  4. mitchnick
    Ok, Euro says 19th and Gfs says 18th. Lol
  5. mitchnick
    All we need from here is for the trough to close ala 1/25/00 https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2026010912&fh=156
  6. mitchnick
    Trough was way too positive for our purposes.
  7. mitchnick
    Hope I'm wrong, but at 129hrs it just looks like a cold front. Maybe Euro is right with the 19th?
  8. mitchnick
    Comparing 5H anomalies 6z vs 0z, 0z looks better organized with the southern vort, but 6z has energy dropping south from the Great Lakes that wasn't there at 0z. That's a wild card.
  9. mitchnick
    You saw the stats on modeling that were posted. It's the worst. The problem is that when it shows something good, we make the mistake of wanting to believe this will be the time when it's right. Of course, it isn't. So now weenies in NE are us from last night for 6 hours until it pulls the rug on them like us.
  10. mitchnick
    At least you don't have much to lose.
  11. mitchnick
    6z Gfs hasn't given up on 15th/17th. Not huge but snow.
  12. mitchnick
    Yep. I'm thinking Eps reflecting the flatter "mess" of 18z. But we're far enough out to get too concerned. We do need to see 0z come back to a stronger, more consolidated vort imho.
  13. mitchnick
    Eps. 12z on top
  14. mitchnick
    12z on top, 18z below.
  15. mitchnick
    I hate to disagree. Too far west and rounder. I prefer 12z look. EDIT: Looks pretty different on the surface too.
  16. mitchnick
    My weenie prediction is yesterday's 6z bomb run was to portend how this system ends up as the 18z run from 120hrs out in 2/07 ended up being the red flag for that storm.
  17. mitchnick
    With the model runs today taken as a whole, it feels/seems like the way things look a week before a typical decent event...some hits and misses. Definitely a different vibe from the last week or more. As much as some may think I am dying to pi$$ on the parade, I'm actually pretty enthusiastic with what I'm seeing. A few more tweaks and we're there.
  18. mitchnick
    What happens in between those hours? Snowfall maps?
  19. mitchnick
    It's a start!
  20. mitchnick
    Mainly BN on Tropical Tidbits, but, as usual, no where near WB even considering WB is F and TT is Celsius. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cfs-avg&region=us&pkg=T2maMean&runtime=2026010806&fh=168
  21. mitchnick
    Fwiw, Ukie is flat as a frying pan.
  22. mitchnick
    Gem misses but may give some upper low stuff
  23. mitchnick
    Never forget the Dgex victory a week+ before 2/6/10 & 2/10/10. It had us down for 36" and we all laughed.
  24. mitchnick
    Kuchera better
  25. mitchnick
    I don't think the storm would be ending fast on the Icon despite that surface map. If you look at the 700mb RH and wind direction along with 500mb vorticity, I think snow would linger. Here are the links. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=icon&p=700rh&rh=2026010812&fh=180&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1 https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=icon&p=500hv&rh=2026010812&fh=180&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1
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