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mitchnick

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Everything posted by mitchnick

  1. mitchnick
    Only need a few days of a decent pattern as I know you know. I'm clinging to the +3.4 in 12/82 at BWI with 7.2" as proof it can happen, though not necessarily that it has to or will happen. Add to that December climo at BWI is terrible. P.s. It was 70 on Christmas that year! Lol
  2. mitchnick
    Could be worse, like getting our water supply from Lake Meade.
  3. mitchnick
  4. mitchnick
    Lowest yet I believe. Maybe @GaWx or @Stormchaserchuck1 will correct me. Bottom map is 10mb.
  5. mitchnick
    I'm not defending the Cfs2, but all the models have their share of major fails and/or persistent biases at one time or another. That said, the point of my post was that the Cfs2 was confirming your call. You don't want confirmations from modeling for your calls? Fine....Chuck the models say you suck! Lol You know I'm just bustin' chops.
  6. mitchnick
    Heading toward the Euro weeklies/seasonal? Looks that way. Time will tell.
  7. mitchnick
    Cfs2, fwiw, has been advertising a little AN December, but not a blow torch.
  8. mitchnick
    Odd. Today is the strongest the weeklies have shown it at 10mb. https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/extended-anomaly-10t?base_time=202610240000&projection=opencharts_north_pole&valid_time=202611090000
  9. mitchnick
    Today’s Euro weeklies has the trough in the south getting started by week 3 and deepens it the next 2 weeks. This is the earliest the weeklies have showed the southern trough. https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/extended-anomaly-z500?base_time=202610240000&projection=opencharts_north_pole&valid_time=202611230000
  10. mitchnick
    This Niño has got to be a financial windfall for the YouTube mets.
  11. mitchnick
    I really don't know or care what he intended. It was a wag and is why I said "may have been" the reason. Lol
  12. mitchnick
    Can't speak for him, but he may have been just using the phrase to describe the atmosphere from the input of the record Niño.
  13. mitchnick
    Cfs2 replacement model snowfall prediction thanks to Prismshine Productions in the NE forum. I'll take it!
  14. mitchnick
    November looks shot in the east....no surprise there. December might have a chance looking at the Cfs2 and Euro weeklies, but it's a ways off for the weeklies at this point to be nothing more than a general idea.
  15. mitchnick
    Gefs fwiw
  16. mitchnick
    December was the only month that winter with a significant -NAO (-.96), hence the best month of the season.
  17. mitchnick
    Euro seasonal has it a bit west allowing a decent trough to develop in the SE. The link below is for NDJ. It holds through the rest of the winter too if you scroll forward. https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/seasonal_system5_standard_z500?area=NHEM&base_time=202610010000&stats=ensm&valid_time=202611010000
  18. mitchnick
    I noticed that too, but wasn't sure what to make of it. I guess time will tell who wins round 1 of the Euro model war. Fwiw, AIGFS has 2 cold fronts moving through after 11/1.
  19. mitchnick
    Yes. But I saw some other stuff that suggests the early warming increases chances for later warming events. But we don't want to put all our eggs in the "stratosphere basket" by any means. Best for it to just enhance our chances than to be the sole/direct cause as they often don't workout so well as most know.
  20. mitchnick
    Last 2 weeks of today's weeklies lining up with seasonal with the trough in/near the GOA and a distinct SE trough, very similar to the Euro seasonal I posted a couple of weeks ago.
  21. mitchnick
    This is proged for the first few days of November, not that it makes a huge difference probably.
  22. mitchnick
    @GaWx Your SE trough is showing up nicely on the last 2 weeks of today's weeklies. Pretty much in line with seasonal.
  23. mitchnick
    They're all pretty BN in the SE, so they'll all be wrong ir right to one degree or another.
  24. mitchnick
    You appear excited Larry! Lol
  25. mitchnick
    Under a huge 500mb Low https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cfs-mon&region=us&pkg=z500a&runtime=2026102200&fh=4
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