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mitchnick

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Everything posted by mitchnick

  1. mitchnick
    https://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-prediction/forecast-systems.php?lang=en&mod=cmc_gdps
  2. mitchnick
    At my age, how about a nice cr...
  3. mitchnick
    Eps lost its luster.
  4. mitchnick
    Euro is just a bad dream.
  5. mitchnick
    Icon would have been further north this run if it extended beyond 120hrs. That Lakes vort showed up unlike 12z and 700mb RH was noticeably further north. Heights along the coast were higher too.
  6. mitchnick
    It took you 575 posts to finally figure out we have issues? You need to concentrate harder.
  7. mitchnick
    By 4/1, we will be tired of precip. Droughts always end in floods or near flooding. Jmho
  8. mitchnick
  9. mitchnick
    It's the Great Lakes vort that needs to pull it up. 12z Ukie lost it, while 0z Ukie and 6z Euro have it.
  10. mitchnick
    Just a slight over adjustment. It'll be back next run.
  11. mitchnick
    Idk, all but a handful of Eps members has the slp in a decent location. In fact, just a few that are way ots skew the mean. We'll see.
  12. mitchnick
    Eps. More to come after this too.
  13. mitchnick
    Incredible how seasonal trends can hold on, whether in reality or on modeling.
  14. mitchnick
    Did you just call him a ground hog?
  15. mitchnick
    "Could be"....The typical way to make a forecast leaving yourself an out if it fails, which would never happen, of course, since MJO 20-30 day forecasts are always accurate. I suspect you've got to pay those people if you want a real forecast.
  16. mitchnick
    Seems like mother nature is doing her best to pad the snow stats of central and southern VA, but even she can fail too with rain getting in the way.
  17. mitchnick
    6hr snowfall on 18z Eps at 144hrs. Nothing in our area before that hour.
  18. mitchnick
    Yeah, delay usually means denied unless there's a northern stream heading down to deliver a fresh dump of cold. But since it's all we've got at this point, we give up our seats on the lifeboat and wait safely on board the Titanic for the Carpathia to arrive.
  19. mitchnick
    18z Euro a little cooler than 12z with slp a bit further south and slightly weaker.
  20. mitchnick
    Maybe something like this at 366hrs on the GfsAI run. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=aigfs&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn&runtime=2026020918&fh=366
  21. mitchnick
    GfsAI a little further south than 12z . Temps ever so slightly cooler because it's a touch south. Probably not snow south of MD/PA line and dubious imby verbatim as well.
  22. mitchnick
    They're not that bad. 1 week AN temps, next week. Several weeks around normal temps to slightly BN and normal or close to AN precip.
  23. mitchnick
    Eps favors Canadian
  24. mitchnick
    By classic, do you mean Chuck Berry, Page or Hendrix?
  25. mitchnick
    Who's giving up? We're too stupid to use common sense.
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