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mitchnick

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Everything posted by mitchnick

  1. mitchnick
    It may not reach max forecast levels, but it's far from dying. There's another westerly wind burst coming in about a month, which will be the strongest if modeling is correct. After that passes it'll be November and we should have a decent idea about when it weakens and how fast. Probably won't be fast enough in my book unfortunately. Lol
  2. mitchnick
    Don't disagree, but more for my Mid Atlantic peeps who have suffered through enough snow falling within 500' asl with rain/mix at the surface. I witnessed it enough times living/working under or near flight paths near BWI to scar my weenie memory. Lol
  3. mitchnick
    September Copernicus (Euro related) DJF Monthly Temps & Precip
  4. mitchnick
    Monthly precip DJF
  5. mitchnick
    Monthly T2 DJF
  6. mitchnick
    A tug of war between higher temps vs. copious precip.
  7. mitchnick
    Except the 2 elephants in the room, 2/83 and 1/16, did make it up the coast, especially 2/83. Edit: Forgot 2/58 & 3/58. Up the coast as well.
  8. mitchnick
    Yep, it's been on the Cfs2 plot for a couple weeks and you can see the reduction of red later this month on this 850 anomaly pic before the mother of all WWB of this Niño hits mid to late October.
  9. mitchnick
    Maybe not, but it's off to a nice start on the 12 Gefs. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs-ens&region=namer&pkg=z500aMean&runtime=2026090912&fh=384
  10. mitchnick
    Meanwhile, for those planning on a fishing trip off Japan, PDO up to -.73 as of yesterday.
  11. mitchnick
    The odds of temps this winter averaging AN are high. Nothing is for certain in wx, so I wouldn't say it's a guarantee, but as close to one as you can probably get all things considered. December will likely suck for snow short of a fluke and, relative to average, will probably be the warmest. Beyond that, anything is possible and I find it notable the fact we have yet to see a toaster oven from any of the seasonals as a positive. If anyone wants to take a position that it's a strong Niño so the glass is cracked and only a few drops are left in it when comes to snow chances, that's up to them. But until I see reasonable consensus among seasonal guidance that a 96/97 or 23/24 is a legit possibility, as opposed to seasonal guidance ain't good enough to see that or some variation of that opinion, I'll remain positive in light of the potential a strong Niño gives for snow in the Mid Atlantic.
  12. mitchnick
    Cfs2 still advertising the mother of all WWB's this Niño for late October into early November.
  13. mitchnick
    Depending on the model, no more than .5C in any 1 month in this area after cooling off around the same amount in August's forecasts. The Cfs2 was already much warmer at this time in 2023 as I previously posted. If we are getting a toaster oven that will seriously impact snowfall, we should know it beforehand as, imho, one of the seasonals will show it.
  14. mitchnick
    And the trend is our friend if you want it to keep rising.
  15. mitchnick
    Yep. None of the seasonals so far are a toaster oven.
  16. mitchnick
    -.83 today
  17. mitchnick
    No doubt it screwed up the beginning of the month. But there's a long way to go is really my point and all 3 ensembles are pointing to a change in the pattern. Fortunately, it's September and not DJ or F.
  18. mitchnick
    That's only the first 6 days of a 30-day month. It obviously didn't hold on to August's heat long enough. However, the changes are coming. Here are the 3 ensemble temp anomaly averages for the 5 days ending the 22nd/23rd of September. Needless to say, there's another 7 days in the month beyond this period to go into the mix. That's not to say the forecast will verify, because it may not. But I don't think using the first 6 days of the month for verification is predictive for a month.
  19. mitchnick
    I was watching Channel 7 DC 11pm weather segment (though I was living just south of BWI at the time but still watched DC wx forecasts along with Baltimore 's lol) and I noticed that the precip shield had expanded all the way into the WVA panhandle, which was a good 40 miles to my NW. And thought that was strange because the guy had just said the storm was to stay to our south. Then he said "hmmm, that precip is pretty far north for a miss" and I thought Game On Baby!!
  20. mitchnick
    Once the Niño starts to weaken, there should be a return of the sst warmth back west with the trade's influence increasing. Of course, it won't be overnight, which is why a weakening of the Niño sooner than later improves our chances of decent snowfall imho.
  21. mitchnick
    Seems like modeling has been putting the ridge SE of Hudson Bay for a while. You can see it in the monthly temp forecasts off the Cfs2 as well as the snowfall forecast off the Euro with reduced snow along the coast from NE down into NC. Cfs2 temps https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/htmls/usT2me3Mon.html
  22. mitchnick
    Hell, it has me at 2" under. That would be the most for me in 6 years. I'll take it.
  23. mitchnick
    Do you know exactly what that scale represents? Does -1 mean -1 inch a month or for the entire 3 month period? I would guess the entire period.
  24. mitchnick
    When you get older Chuck, you'll start to appreciate the near-dementia wisdom of age. Lol
  25. mitchnick
    I've never denied being the eternal optimist, fairly or unfairly. Lol
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