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mitchnick

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  1. mitchnick
    Euro seasonal has it a bit west allowing a decent trough to develop in the SE. The link below is for NDJ. It holds through the rest of the winter too if you scroll forward. https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/seasonal_system5_standard_z500?area=NHEM&base_time=202610010000&stats=ensm&valid_time=202611010000
  2. mitchnick
    I noticed that too, but wasn't sure what to make of it. I guess time will tell who wins round 1 of the Euro model war. Fwiw, AIGFS has 2 cold fronts moving through after 11/1.
  3. mitchnick
    Yes. But I saw some other stuff that suggests the early warming increases chances for later warming events. But we don't want to put all our eggs in the "stratosphere basket" by any means. Best for it to just enhance our chances than to be the sole/direct cause as they often don't workout so well as most know.
  4. mitchnick
    Last 2 weeks of today's weeklies lining up with seasonal with the trough in/near the GOA and a distinct SE trough, very similar to the Euro seasonal I posted a couple of weeks ago.
  5. mitchnick
    This is proged for the first few days of November, not that it makes a huge difference probably.
  6. mitchnick
    @GaWx Your SE trough is showing up nicely on the last 2 weeks of today's weeklies. Pretty much in line with seasonal.
  7. mitchnick
    They're all pretty BN in the SE, so they'll all be wrong ir right to one degree or another.
  8. mitchnick
    You appear excited Larry! Lol
  9. mitchnick
    Under a huge 500mb Low https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cfs-mon&region=us&pkg=z500a&runtime=2026102200&fh=4
  10. mitchnick
    Congrats Larry! This guy gave you a shout out for this post on his wx video. Go to 4:30 for it.
  11. mitchnick
    Don't like it either. I think their regular site's alleged maintenance is more of a "let's shove Beta down their throats" as I'm thinking most still prefer the original site. Beta seems like a nod to TT and WB in format.
  12. mitchnick
    82/83 was east based too. It holds the record for max RONI SSTA at 2.4 in 12/82 & 1/83. We're close to that right now. Can't throw out that one. We'll be fighting temps all winter. That's a guarantee, but that's nothing new for the MA. Though December might yield a light fluke, we're probably waiting for 1/15 or later imho.
  13. mitchnick
    I recommend this brand.
  14. mitchnick
    Don't worry, they still look the same.
  15. mitchnick
    Wow! 12" in 1969. We had 5" that ended as zr just south of BWI. But it was great nonetheless. I remember it well. (at my age, remembering 57 years ago is easy....it's 57 minutes ago that's the problem )
  16. mitchnick
    I'll be watching your back, you can be certain of it!
  17. mitchnick
    Gawx did research on early season warmings and found the only closest matches to this year were 16/17, 79/80 & 09/10, with the last 2 the only Niños. So it may be indicative of future favorable warmings, but that's weenie speculation at this point.
  18. mitchnick
    Idk. 82 was east based and great for the MA. lol
  19. mitchnick
    It's not worth arguing about as we'll know in a couple months. It just seems that there's this consensus forecast to disregard the strongest Niño not causing default Niño conditions. And there's an old saying, when everyone thinks alike, people aren't thinking enough.
  20. mitchnick
    If this is the strongest Niño we know of, wouldn't it increase the odds of a "default Niño " actually occurring as depicted on seasonal modeling? I'm not saying I know that answer, but it seems logical.
  21. mitchnick
    It does show a quick recovery, but stay tuned because 10 days ago this warming wasn't even showing up on the Euro. In fact, it showed a strengthening PV.
  22. mitchnick
    JB post courtesy MJO812 in El Nino thread.
  23. mitchnick
  24. mitchnick
    Looks like you were on the wrong side of the stationary front all month.
  25. mitchnick
    He might be looking at the Cfs2 for that December comment. It's been coming in for the past week AN, but not by a whole lot. Idk. We'd have to get pretty lucky for December to deliver anything of consequence. Otoh, the exception is 12/82 when BWI was +3.4 and still had a little over 7" thanks to a 1/2" event and a Sunday night surprise of almost 7".
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