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mitchnick

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Everything posted by mitchnick

  1. mitchnick
    And this map is 10:1. Definitely better ratios, especially north of southern VA.
  2. mitchnick
    Thought for sure you'd end up at 2".
  3. mitchnick
    6z Eps at the end of the 144hr run looks "right" if you know what I mean. Lol Top is 6hr precip and bottom is 6hr snowfall.
  4. mitchnick
    Just about over here. Lt snow that radar misses, as is often the case up here I have found, should be ending soon. Roads and sidewalks basically wet with only a few snowy patches. I'll be shocked if I measure an inch on my car, but definitely not over an inch. Iow, you really didn't miss anything of consequence.
  5. mitchnick
    You made me look. Dang, Eps even better than the 6z Gefs 24hr period! But to answer your question, looks like a weak sign of a threat at the end of the run.
  6. mitchnick
    Undoubtedly, the best 24hr ensemble forecast period of the year on the 6z Gefs. EDIT: I should add that this is 180 hours, so you can't expect a big number like 6"+. Those won't come until we're closer to the threat.
  7. mitchnick
    Meh...snow hole over mby too. 3"
  8. mitchnick
    Seems to me we probably have just 1 shot at a big storm before the cold dump. Gunna' stink if we fail with it.
  9. mitchnick
    Just lt snow now. There's a heavy band incoming but it'll just clip me or miss altogether. Again, to my east will get hit. I suspect Mappy should get another 2"+ out of this.
  10. mitchnick
    I'm right on the western edge of better stuff. Mappy will do much better. The Nam replacement was showing this best if I rrcall.
  11. mitchnick
    Woke up 20 minutes ago and the sky is filled with fatties quickly accumulating.
  12. mitchnick
    Rap and Hrrr are around 1-1.5" at best for those with a shot.
  13. mitchnick
    Latest Srefs
  14. mitchnick
    Sorry, but I'd take that in a heartbeat. I don't care what prior runs showed.
  15. mitchnick
    Pivotal shows 3-4", with a bullseye of 6" on the Cape.
  16. mitchnick
    Ninja'd!
  17. mitchnick
    That's one hell of a big molar in nw Virginia. Quite the dental office there, I'm sure.
  18. mitchnick
    Crazy how Gefs and EuroAI snowfall is very similar thru 300hrs. Similar, but not good. Clearly, modeling is favoring as of now suppression and is unimpressed with anything else for us. The straw we can grasp for now is it's too far to be confident of anything.
  19. mitchnick
    Gotta' give it credit. It learns fast. Lol
  20. mitchnick
    I think we can laugh in 6 hours for this one.
  21. mitchnick
    Hey...a usual suspect!
  22. mitchnick
    That's close enough for 180hrs away. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=prateptype_cat-imp&rh=2026011718&fh=180&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1
  23. mitchnick
    Euro wasn't into this morning either and it overperformed the Euro forecast x5 in some places like Mappyland and other northern MD locations and x2 imby. The most/more conservative runs of the mesos prevailed over the globals this morning imho. I'll roll with the same winners tomorrow since it's a similar looking system in some ways.
  24. mitchnick
    That's not far off the deck at all. Higher elevations in Howard, Carroll and Baltimore counties should be able to overcome it...hopefully.
  25. mitchnick
    @TSSN+ We're officially hugging the 3k Nam.
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