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mitchnick

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Everything posted by mitchnick

  1. mitchnick
    Gawx did research on early season warmings and found the only closest matches to this year were 16/17, 79/80 & 09/10, with the last 2 the only Niños. So it may be indicative of future favorable warmings, but that's weenie speculation at this point.
  2. mitchnick
    Idk. 82 was east based and great for the MA. lol
  3. mitchnick
    It's not worth arguing about as we'll know in a couple months. It just seems that there's this consensus forecast to disregard the strongest Niño not causing default Niño conditions. And there's an old saying, when everyone thinks alike, people aren't thinking enough.
  4. mitchnick
    If this is the strongest Niño we know of, wouldn't it increase the odds of a "default Niño " actually occurring as depicted on seasonal modeling? I'm not saying I know that answer, but it seems logical.
  5. mitchnick
    It does show a quick recovery, but stay tuned because 10 days ago this warming wasn't even showing up on the Euro. In fact, it showed a strengthening PV.
  6. mitchnick
    JB post courtesy MJO812 in El Nino thread.
  7. mitchnick
  8. mitchnick
    Looks like you were on the wrong side of the stationary front all month.
  9. mitchnick
    He might be looking at the Cfs2 for that December comment. It's been coming in for the past week AN, but not by a whole lot. Idk. We'd have to get pretty lucky for December to deliver anything of consequence. Otoh, the exception is 12/82 when BWI was +3.4 and still had a little over 7" thanks to a 1/2" event and a Sunday night surprise of almost 7".
  10. mitchnick
    As always, if it doesn't happen on or around the time as proged, we may be in trouble. Fwiw, today’s weeklies establish the trough around the GOA the first week of November and holds it through the last week. We won't have long to wait. P.s. Today's weeklies put a nice hit on the PV too. This has been advertised for a few days now. https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/extended-zonal-mean-zonal-wind?area=nh&base_time=202610190000
  11. mitchnick
    Residual cold. Look how far the heights are off the coast matching the low anomaly.
  12. mitchnick
    Disagree. That post had the trough moving east by the arrows. It's not moving east. And to say the eastward end is just smoothing out is your interpretation.
  13. mitchnick
    You may want to reconsider.
  14. mitchnick
    Since I don't have an X account, you should probably give them this link because that run, when put in motion, clearly shows that trough off the west coast retrograding WEST, NOT EAST, in the frames leading up to that 360hr map they posted. Agenda, agenda....that's all I see. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=eps&region=nhem&pkg=z500a&runtime=2026101900&fh=18
  15. mitchnick
    You said it was - in 1998. I posted January-March 1998. That map is December, 1997-February 1998. That's not 1998.
  16. mitchnick
    Was it really? 1998 0.39 -0.11 0.87 https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/norm.nao.monthly.b5001.current.ascii.table
  17. mitchnick
    I should have included this as part of my thinking that this year will be better than 23/24. Compare the 10/23 forecast (top) from the Euro seasonal to the 10/26 forecast. Cfs2 was already painting a well AN winter forecast as of mid October, 2023. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/cfsv2_fcst_history/202310/htmls/usT2me3Mon.html
  18. mitchnick
    Thing is, the end of the Eps run from last night has a trough off the west coast retrograding wnw toward the GOA and the Euro weeklies have been, for at least 4 days in a row (could be longer, but I stopped at 4) putting a trough in the GOA and the SE US where the seasonal put them come mid-late November, subject to slight model to model variations. So we still need to wait as I ended my convo with Chuck, but MR is now lining up with seasonal progs, and that's as good as we can get from this point in time. P.s. It's been discussed some in other forums, but the North Pole ice shield is the largest in 10 or more years. Odd that could happen in this super Niño.
  19. mitchnick
    A low in the mean, so it doesn't guarantee a permanent low.
  20. mitchnick
    NAO will definitely end the month +. By exactly how much and its significance obviously tbd. Hopefully, Chuck's observation that any October +NAO favors the opposite for the winter prevails.
  21. mitchnick
    So you are disregarding last night's Eps that pulls the west coast trough wnw off the coast toward the GOA as well as the last 4 weeklies runs (at least) that has the Aleutian low and trough developing in the SE?
  22. mitchnick
    That's what I told Chuck in the MA forum a bit earlier.
  23. mitchnick
    I know. I get what you're saying. I just don't think this winter will act as hostile to cold/snow as worst case, at least not imby. And I also think the atmosphere is moving slower getting pieces in position thanks to the years of MC forcing and -PDO. That's why I'm more convinced with the formation of the Aleutian low than you. But as I said, time will tell and December will be here before you know it. Once Halloween hits, the holidays just fly by.
  24. mitchnick
    I said my piece. We disagree. Only time will tell. So do you choose pistols or knives? Lol
  25. mitchnick
    BS Chuck. Sorry but neither you nor any other person is better than the model consensus . Do you think they're not using analogs too? The models will have their errors, but the consensus is overwhelming. And don't be narrow-minded . The mean Aleutian Low has not been proged to get started until next month. But before the mean trough is established, you're going to get transient lows in the area, which is what has been happening. And that loop is for 1 run. Go back to older runs of the ensembles and you will see multiple lows showing up.
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