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mitchnick

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Everything posted by mitchnick

  1. mitchnick
    My mistake Larry. Sorry. Still, I contend the AN forecast in 23/24 from the Cfs2 was not bad as it was on the correct side of normal for the east+ and got warmer as the season approached.
  2. mitchnick
    Without going into a competing long response, I frankly just don't care about a warming planet. There's nothing I can do about it aside from having a well insulated home (which I have since I receive the highest rating from my local energy provider for houses my size) and driving a fuel efficient vehicle. It is not, nor has it ever been, on my list of life's concerns at all. I care about weather imby and judge that weather from current conditions and progs. How those conditions got there, I don't care.
  3. mitchnick
    I'm not taking anything personal on this Board. Lol I'm just being blunt. You've said several times that the seasonal models are just spitting out canonical enso winter forecasts and Cfs2 clearly didn't based on the temp forecast you criticized but never posted. And remember, you picked the 23/24 winter as the example. But we agree on 1 thing. The seasonal models won't be right in all locations around the globe. If you're going to judge them based on an entire continent or the world, then fine, they stink. But that doesn’t mean they can't be close in some areas. I only care about the east, specifically the N. Mid Atlantic. As Gawx has proven in several recent posts on the subject, they've been pretty good around here lately, including 23/24. So they are worth considering. And like I said, if they showed warm, please don't kid yourself that you wouldn't be posting or referencing them.
  4. mitchnick
    By the way, why didn't you bother to post the Cfs2 temp forecast for the 23/24 winter? Since we're nearing the end of July, this is what it had from the 8/1/23-8/10/23 period. Pretty warm (and not very Niño canonical), isn't it?
  5. mitchnick
    Tell it to the new Jamstec winter forecast. I'm just the messenger. Maps stink, but that's all they seem to offer.
  6. mitchnick
    Lol. That's definitely the 3rd time you pulled up 23/24 when you tried to back door dispute every seasonal forecast. First the NMME, then the Euro seasonal, and the Cfs2 at least this time if not more. As been discussed many times, this year ain't 23/24. But at this point, none of the seasonal modeling is showing anything close to 23/24. But I'm sure if one does, we'll see it posted by you more than 3 or 4 times. Honestly, I seriously believe you want it to be warm. Deny it all you want, but that's the impression I'm getting from you at this point.
  7. mitchnick
    This is December. Loop through it. They're not bad thanks to lower heights. Edit: NNE is obviously warmer as in most moderate or strong Niños https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cfs-mon&region=eus&pkg=T2ma&runtime=2026071818&fh=5 2nd Edit: Here's the link to 850 temps starting December https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cfs-mon&region=us&pkg=T850a&runtime=2026071818&fh=5
  8. mitchnick
    I'll say this: Cfs2 continues to advertise a decent with pattern in the east this winter, including the illusive, albeit displaced at times, Aleutian Low. This is the link starting December. Loop through it and you'll see what I mean. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cfs-mon&region=namer&pkg=z500a&runtime=2026071818&fh=5 P.s. April looks near perfect too!
  9. mitchnick
    I generally agree, but I can't help but be in a "show me" mentality as long as the Euro seasonal seems so unimpressed with its forecast. I'd like to see it bust for the reasons stated, but only time will tell.
  10. mitchnick
    Daily Cfs2 plume charts are updated daily and hyperlinked to this site; past half way down. https://www.stormsurf.com/page2/links/ensocurr.html
  11. mitchnick
    That's what the Cfs2 was showing over 3 months ago when I posted. I was just the messenger. Obviously, Cfs2 forecast, updated multiple times a day, changed.
  12. mitchnick
    He's not talking about right now, but that it will trend more basin wide as supported by subsurface and is depicted on seasonal models. Models apparently seeing westerly anomalies weakening during the fall allowing trades to move the warmth in the esst back west.
  13. mitchnick
    Last year was okay up top. My thought was because the sun was so active it acted more like a peaking solar cycle even being technically past the peak as on the way up is generallybetter than down. Maybe it's already been mentioned by another(s) on or off this Board idk. Just a hunch. If correct, an active sun might give a better result....just a weenie WAG!
  14. mitchnick
    I swear, every time I see you posting Jeff Berardelli, because of that cartoon pic, the same initials and similar name structure, I think you're posting JB (Bastardi). Lol Am I the only one?
  15. mitchnick
    5 day average https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=eps&region=us&pkg=z500aMean&runtime=2026071400&fh=264
  16. mitchnick
    Eps says it's coming to a N. Hemisphere near you. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=eps&region=us&pkg=z500a&runtime=2026071400&fh=210
  17. mitchnick
    Knock yourself out! Lol https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/cfsv2_fcst_history/
  18. mitchnick
    Well, that slow change may just be as a result of the fast warming. Give it some time before dropping the lifeboats.lifeboat. Edit: Iow, the atmosphere just may need time to catch up to a Niño that has warmed as fast as this one.
  19. mitchnick
    I agree, but there are signs of troughiness forming in the east and ridging out west on the 12z Eps. You can see it happening if you put this link in motion. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=eps&region=namer&pkg=z500a&runtime=2026071212&fh=0
  20. mitchnick
    Irrelevant then. Wrong forum anyway.
  21. mitchnick
    Except the United States just celebrated 250 years and your graph only goes back to 1900, soooo....
  22. mitchnick
    There's time for the PDO to cooperate. Once the Niño conditions in the N. Hemisphere get truly established, as in October, we might see a flip to at least neutral imho.
  23. mitchnick
    1.2" from last night's thunderstorm line. Dark green weeds surrounding patches of brown grass. Summer in the MA.
  24. mitchnick
    Take a hike, punk!
  25. mitchnick
    There was also a surprise snow in December that dropped 4-8" across the area. Without checking LWX records, I think BWI was around 6".
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