mitchnick

Prom week early this year?

Snow for our back yards verbatim

That sums it up.

Don't forget that excitement was initiated by the click-baiting internet mets. And remember I posted in response to a decent 5H on the Eps it was important to know how it got there.

Gefs say that. Eps says otherwise and Geps is back and forth resulting in near normal.

I agree, and I'm not worried about temps. We just need an effin' real slp to track west to east below us or up the coast dropping at least 1/2" of qpf. That's what I'm not seeing. If the pattern advertised by the ensembles is so great, the operationals should be full of those threats, but they're not. And I think you'd agree with me on that.

That just proves his maps are juiced. But it's not worth arguing about since it'll be changing in 7 hours. By the way, I do acknowledge that the flow out of Canada is usually a cold one for us, but interesting nonetheless that it is only slightly BN.

Don't fret. It's gone on the 6z run.

0z EPS. Perfect example of too much of a good thing. Lol

Another "end of the run" tease on the Gfs without an ending.

It breaks the DT rule with a closed 5H low west of the Mississippi.

End of Ggem run monster probably would be rain, but we'll never know.

Gfs has never worked.

Until ensemble patterns look good, ensemble snowfall is decent, and we have accompanying operational models showing a storm(s), THEN we have something. We actually had this at 12z with the Euro suite, but none of the others. There was a day when that was good enough, but we all know how horrid the latest version of the Euro can be as we may remember from last winter and it's days 8-12 teases. We need the Euro suite to hold in one fashion or another and the GFS & GEM suites to join with it. Then I'm legit psyched.

The kind of pattern that supports the operational storm.

Euro weeklies are still below or around normal, but have lost the AN precip during the 2nd period to a little BN unfortunately.

Eps really lit up.

4.0-8.0

Eps, as usual, are a miss tonthe north for the 8th/9th.

6z EuroAI likes the 10th-11th. We'll see how many more runs it can hold. Lol

Or maybe just regurgitating the Euro. Lol

I went over to TT and put the 5H anomalies in motion with the slid function. I looks like the lowest anomalies backed in from the east and not from west to east. Idk if it makes a difference, but I was expecting it to move from west to east. I'm not saying it's bad, because I don't know. Maybe a red tagger can chime in. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=eps&region=us&pkg=z500a&runtime=2025122800&fh=12

That looks great! But the issue I always have with the 5 day mean is how did it get to that mean as in what happened over the 5 day period to get all the players in the right spot.

6z was even better

6z Gfs (days 8-9) is a perfect example of a wasted block. But this run is so different from 0z, it's beyond entertainment and fantasy.