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mitchnick

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Everything posted by mitchnick

  1. mitchnick
    Cape's going to luuuuuuuuv your posting that map. Lol
  2. mitchnick
    Lower mean today....underwater
  3. mitchnick
    I didn't quote Webb.
  4. mitchnick
    https://eos.org/editors-vox/global-impacts-of-ensos-reach-into-the-stratosphere https://www.google.com/search?q=what+does+the+stratosphere+have+to+do+with+El+Niño+&client=ms-android-tmus-us-rvc3&hs=lktq&sca_esv=e65bf6121730a79e&sxsrf=AKL5yDhbk3KYfKSBLv7Eej9pJfcM1C9qmw%3A1793207651672&ei=Yy3iat64KKvR5NoP7buWGA&biw=384&bih=692&oq=what+does+the+stratosphere+have+to+do+with+El+Niño+&gs_lp=EhNtb2JpbGUtZ3dzLXdpei1zZXJwIjR3aGF0IGRvZXMgdGhlIHN0cmF0b3NwaGVyZSBoYXZlIHRvIGRvIHdpdGggRWwgTmnDsW8gMgUQIRigATIFECEYoAEyBRAhGKABMgUQIRirAjIFECEYqwIyBRAhGKsCMgUQABjvBUj-mQFQjR5YoJMBcAB4AJABApgBuAGgAaYnqgEENC4zNrgBA8gBAPgBAZgCHKAC7BzCAgsQABiABBiiBBiwA8ICCBAAGO8FGLADwgIIEAAYgAQYogTCAggQABiJBRiiBMICCBAhGKABGMMEwgIKECEYChigARjDBMICBRAhGJ8FwgIGEAAYFhgewgILEAAYgAQYigUYhgOYAwCIBgGQBgWSBwYyLjI1LjGgB_foAbIHBjIuMjUuMbgH7BzCBwkyLTE2LjExLjHIB-MBgAgB&sclient=mobile-gws-wiz-serp
  5. mitchnick
    Agreed that if it rises fast, it won't be a good thing for a cold or snowy December especially in light of enso climo. But if you go to the link below for that graph, as recently as 10/14 or 10/15, the PV split (I'll call it for ease) wasn't even showing up on that weekly prog, and was very slow thereafter to show the extent of the PV's demise. So I guess, probably because I've lived in the M. Atlantic snow hole for so many years, I'll not worry about the state of the PV come December or trust the PV forecast at this distance. https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/extended-zonal-mean-zonal-wind?area=nh&base_time=202610140000
  6. mitchnick
    All the ensembles have been heading toward a SE trough (or weakening of heights as a possible precursor of the trough) in one form/location/strength or another consistent with seasonal modeling. Of course, they maybe, like so often, early with the pattern. But it's encouraging to see it happening nonetheless.
  7. mitchnick
    Lowest yet.
  8. mitchnick
    Aren't the + signs supposed to be - signs?
  9. mitchnick
    How big is the bridge? Asking for a friend.
  10. mitchnick
    Lol. It's October. Who cares. Are you seeking relevance or attention?
  11. mitchnick
    Told ya'! Lol
  12. mitchnick
    Sit tight! Lol
  13. mitchnick
    You're comparing October to December. Don't you think that's probably not a fair comparison to draw any conclusions for this year since we're 5 weeks from the start of December and 9.5 from the end?
  14. mitchnick
    Great news. Warmer temps, less energy consumption, and less pollutants. Aren't you celebrating?
  15. mitchnick
  16. mitchnick
    Weeklies were cold last year and were correct. Not all the time, but more often than not. I specifically recall your posts in that regard.
  17. mitchnick
    It actually went noticeably north from yesterday.
  18. mitchnick
    Regardless of the strat, today's weeklies have the first week of December looking exactly like the Euro and all other seasonal modeling for December, which is a good thing.
  19. mitchnick
    Did you scream "police brutality "?
  20. mitchnick
    Today’s 10mb Euro weeklies prog. If you scroll forward using the R arrow, it brings the dome of warmth over the Pole into our side before dissapating. https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/extended-anomaly-10t?base_time=202610260000&projection=opencharts_north_pole&valid_time=202611020000
  21. mitchnick
    Only need a few days of a decent pattern as I know you know. I'm clinging to the +3.4 in 12/82 at BWI with 7.2" as proof it can happen, though not necessarily that it has to or will happen. Add to that December climo at BWI is terrible. P.s. It was 70 on Christmas that year! Lol
  22. mitchnick
    Could be worse, like getting our water supply from Lake Meade.
  23. mitchnick
  24. mitchnick
    Lowest yet I believe. Maybe @GaWx or @Stormchaserchuck1 will correct me. Bottom map is 10mb.
  25. mitchnick
    I'm not defending the Cfs2, but all the models have their share of major fails and/or persistent biases at one time or another. That said, the point of my post was that the Cfs2 was confirming your call. You don't want confirmations from modeling for your calls? Fine....Chuck the models say you suck! Lol You know I'm just bustin' chops.
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