mitchnick

Did you just call him a ground hog?

"Could be"....The typical way to make a forecast leaving yourself an out if it fails, which would never happen, of course, since MJO 20-30 day forecasts are always accurate. I suspect you've got to pay those people if you want a real forecast.

Seems like mother nature is doing her best to pad the snow stats of central and southern VA, but even she can fail too with rain getting in the way.

6hr snowfall on 18z Eps at 144hrs. Nothing in our area before that hour.

Yeah, delay usually means denied unless there's a northern stream heading down to deliver a fresh dump of cold. But since it's all we've got at this point, we give up our seats on the lifeboat and wait safely on board the Titanic for the Carpathia to arrive.

18z Euro a little cooler than 12z with slp a bit further south and slightly weaker.

Maybe something like this at 366hrs on the GfsAI run. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=aigfs&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn&runtime=2026020918&fh=366

GfsAI a little further south than 12z . Temps ever so slightly cooler because it's a touch south. Probably not snow south of MD/PA line and dubious imby verbatim as well.

They're not that bad. 1 week AN temps, next week. Several weeks around normal temps to slightly BN and normal or close to AN precip.

Eps favors Canadian

By classic, do you mean Chuck Berry, Page or Hendrix?

Who's giving up? We're too stupid to use common sense.

They lost the Superbowl, so we can always remind them of that.

Never mind

What makes me stop and wonder is, how does a 992 slp off Orf only drop this kind of snowfall rate?

It's bad, for sure, but all the models have been all over the place. Unfortunately, even with a near perfect track, we're running into surface temp issues as Chuck's suggested. In the end, we're still in the same Niña regime which is killing us. The last gasp of trade winds (Niña influence) are progged to hang around thru the first day or 2 of March. If anyone is hoping for a late season miracle, my best guess would be wait until after the trade winds die. Otoh, if next weekend works out, that should now be considered a miracle too. Lol

Fwiw, and I know it ain't much, 6z GfsAI took the southern route with marginal temps at best. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=aigfs&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn&runtime=2026020906&fh=168

7 imby

Problem with precip too as the storm abruptly exits stage right. Iow, same problem as all winter north of central VA.

I think you can see differences better with the 5H anomaly maps. That said, the 2 runs are pretty different, but we'll drive ourselves crazy doing this every 6 hours between now and next Sunday.

One thing is for sure, both Gfs and Euro ops wanna' bring back the cold before the end of their runs.

If you factor in the Euro's proclivity to over amplify at this range and consider the seasonal trend as exhibited on the Gfs suite, I'd say you have the Icon solution.

No shock in light of the Ukie as they seem to think alike.

EuroAI with the same garbage, just a bit warmer.

Gefs majority keep it south.