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mitchnick

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Everything posted by mitchnick

  1. mitchnick
    Comparing 15z Srefs 78hr snowfall total to 9z Srefs 84hr snowfall total. 15Z IS BETTER!!!
  2. mitchnick
    Eps fwiw at this point. Pretty consistent if nothing else.
  3. mitchnick
    Go to any 7-11 and make yourself a large cup of crushed ice.
  4. mitchnick
    It'll crush Altoona once inside 48 hours. Lol
  5. mitchnick
    Not out yet, but maybe be getting past usefulness at this range.
  6. mitchnick
    Once Pivotal catches up, they have sounding plots by clicking on the location. That may be pay only, but they are only $99/year or $10-$12/month.
  7. mitchnick
    Looooooooong duration. Now that that is locked in, we work on thermals.
  8. mitchnick
    That's not bad based on heights.
  9. mitchnick
    Which probably allows the confluence to leave.
  10. mitchnick
    That's cold smoke right there.
  11. mitchnick
    Maybe if I say it enough times. Lol Seriously, the warm layer on the Rgem is shallow and just above freezing, so "maybe" was my thinking/hope.
  12. mitchnick
    Rgem 84hrs, surface low off the coast with plenty precip to the w sw. If it changes back, that's a nice backside of fluff.
  13. mitchnick
    Last comment on 12z Nam, if you look at the 84hrs Conus surface map, there was a lot of precip to go. It was definitely heading toward the long long duration scenario of one form of precip or another.
  14. mitchnick
    That was the first huge sign to me the upgraded Euro stunk because the night before (0z) it dropped 20"+ imby, then the next run was 12"+, and I ended up with 3"+.
  15. mitchnick
    Yes, and remember a couple days ago the Nam went hard on an appetizer (1-3") just to the south of the Metros at the end of its run for Friday, and that's Poof!
  16. mitchnick
    Can't expect the Nam to get all thermals correct at the far reaches of its forecast period. And it's the far reaches where thermals become an important factor in final snow totals.
  17. mitchnick
    In the overall pattern, they have been in the long range. But I don't know if that applies in the short range....probably not, since each storm is different with its unique conditions.
  18. mitchnick
    Probably not wet due to low temps from 850mb down. More likely rimed or mini snowballs until the warm layer is deep enough to completely melt the flakes and then fall as sleet imho.
  19. mitchnick
    Looking at the 6z Ukie, it's a little cooler at 66hrs than 0z at 72hrs thanks to some better confluence. May be a tad slower. Cooler is probably likely since ensembles responded.
  20. mitchnick
    Here. Only goes out to 66hrs at 6z and 18z however. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ukmo_global&p=prateptype_ukmo-imp&rh=2026012206&fh=66&r=us_ma&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1
  21. mitchnick
    6z Ukie ensembles convinced they were too warm.
  22. mitchnick
    Eps remain nice.
  23. mitchnick
    GREAT!!! Link to all the parameters. https://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-prediction/forecast-systems.php?lang=en&mod=cmc_gdps
  24. mitchnick
  25. mitchnick
    Eps wasn't posted. Also Geps and Ukie ensemble.
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