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mitchnick

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Everything posted by mitchnick

  1. mitchnick
    I never heard of the authors/site, but 40/70 was pretty critical of them over in the New England forums winter thread.
  2. mitchnick
    Definitely expect some adjustments over the next 2 months...hopefully not in the wrong direction. After that, it's December with the daily weeklies update! What a drug this hobby can be! Lol
  3. mitchnick
    Never argue with a March map like that one! Lol It has been consistent fwiw.
  4. mitchnick
    Euro was too cool in 23/24 in the east, then too warm in 24/25 and again last winter. I really don't know what to think about this winter except it's a bit warmer than Jamstec, Cfs2, NMME and JMA. I think the Cansips is a bit behind the curve and will eventually look like the rest of seasonal modeling, more or less.
  5. mitchnick
    At this point, I look at a consensus average. But interestingly, none of the seasonal models are that different with temps (early season being warmest) and heavy precip along the SE and east coasts regardless of how they got there, east or central based.
  6. mitchnick
    We're going to need the Icon to settle this. Lemme' take a close look with my good eye.
  7. mitchnick
    September Jamstec. It may not get the forecast right, but it'll at least get you to make an optometrist appointment.
  8. mitchnick
    That's the point, that's climo. Our snow is like bananas...it comes in bunches. No bunches, no snow. True flukes here are 95/96, 02/03, and 13/14.
  9. mitchnick
    Forgetting, of course, that the warmest December on record at BWI, 12/15, was followed the next month with the single biggest snowstorm on record during a strong Niño. Not to mention the 3rd or 4th largest snowfall in 2/83 was an east based strong Niño. You should know better that's how it works around here.
  10. mitchnick
    Enso 3.0 down too.
  11. mitchnick
    Yeah, I've posted this Cfs2 chart a couple times recently. Here's the updated one.
  12. mitchnick
    Eps, among other models, show a weakening of 850 anomalies as well as the renewal of trades breaking through in days to come; Gefs even more so.
  13. mitchnick
    -.39 updated today (different on 40/70's site)
  14. mitchnick
    Imho, you're in a great location based on current seasonal modeling. But the jackpot, again based on modeling, would definitely be higher elevations and the other side of the BR Parkway.
  15. mitchnick
    They've all been eliminated and we no longer speak of them. Snow is serious bidness.
  16. mitchnick
    Flurries for you
  17. mitchnick
    That's got to be exclusively 72/73 as DCA & BWI ended the winter with only 1-2" while parts of VA & NC had a record year.
  18. mitchnick
    I could be wrong, but I don't think the full link between Enso and climate was understood or established back then, or the ability to predict Enso states accurately. That might explain at least part of it.
  19. mitchnick
    The other site shows -.41 as of 9/10. Still a rise, but not as dramatic.
  20. mitchnick
    That 1 map sums up why 23/24 failed as a Niño imho.
  21. mitchnick
    It may not reach max forecast levels, but it's far from dying. There's another westerly wind burst coming in about a month, which will be the strongest if modeling is correct. After that passes it'll be November and we should have a decent idea about when it weakens and how fast. Probably won't be fast enough in my book unfortunately. Lol
  22. mitchnick
    Don't disagree, but more for my Mid Atlantic peeps who have suffered through enough snow falling within 500' asl with rain/mix at the surface. I witnessed it enough times living/working under or near flight paths near BWI to scar my weenie memory. Lol
  23. mitchnick
    September Copernicus (Euro related) DJF Monthly Temps & Precip
  24. mitchnick
    Monthly precip DJF
  25. mitchnick
    Monthly T2 DJF
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