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mitchnick

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  1. mitchnick
    I was watching Channel 7 DC 11pm weather segment (though I was living just south of BWI at the time but still watched DC wx forecasts along with Baltimore 's lol) and I noticed that the precip shield had expanded all the way into the WVA panhandle, which was a good 40 miles to my NW. And thought that was strange because the guy had just said the storm was to stay to our south. Then he said "hmmm, that precip is pretty far north for a miss" and I thought Game On Baby!!
  2. mitchnick
    Once the Niño starts to weaken, there should be a return of the sst warmth back west with the trade's influence increasing. Of course, it won't be overnight, which is why a weakening of the Niño sooner than later improves our chances of decent snowfall imho.
  3. mitchnick
    Seems like modeling has been putting the ridge SE of Hudson Bay for a while. You can see it in the monthly temp forecasts off the Cfs2 as well as the snowfall forecast off the Euro with reduced snow along the coast from NE down into NC. Cfs2 temps https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/htmls/usT2me3Mon.html
  4. mitchnick
    Hell, it has me at 2" under. That would be the most for me in 6 years. I'll take it.
  5. mitchnick
    Do you know exactly what that scale represents? Does -1 mean -1 inch a month or for the entire 3 month period? I would guess the entire period.
  6. mitchnick
    When you get older Chuck, you'll start to appreciate the near-dementia wisdom of age. Lol
  7. mitchnick
    I've never denied being the eternal optimist, fairly or unfairly. Lol
  8. mitchnick
    I'll take it in a heartbeat.
  9. mitchnick
    Really? Don't believe everything you read over in the main Enso thread. Lol The seasonal models will not nail every location. Here's the 9/25 forecast off the Cansips for 12/25-2/26. It has BWI +.5C, so say +1F. What happened at BWI? Every month was BN with an average for the 3 months of -3.7F. So it was too cold in Colorado, and who cares, and too warm where we live. P.s. I've already said in the other forum this winter will likely be AN. The question is, obviously, by how much.
  10. mitchnick
    There's nothing suggesting it'll be that warm. I say that with the understanding that the Niño is at record levels, but the same models that have been showing a record Niño don't have it that warm. But actually you and I are on the same page wrt how the winter should play out despite any differences of opinion on modeling. Of course, that could change if modeling goes into the crapper as we approach met winter. Lol
  11. mitchnick
    Actually, I was just playing the part of a weenie with JI. But, since you mentioned it, analyzing this year's Euro seasonal in light of a failed Euro seasonal forecast from 23/24 is sorta beyond absurd too.
  12. mitchnick
    Cansips did better with temps around here last winter than the warmer Euro. So we toss.
  13. mitchnick
    We simply toss the Euro and run with the Cansips.
  14. mitchnick
    The single digit members (ala 96/97) are skewing it lower. Of course, that type year is on the table if the Canadian ridge bullies south. Better not.
  15. mitchnick
    The Euro's 23/24 winter forecast just stunk. As I previously posted, the Cfs2 was already showing a warm winter by mid September. This year, the difference between the 2 right now is not that great and they are similar to the Cansips, Jamstec, and NMME. So it's going to be a massive failure by all modeling or a consensus success. The only caveat being there's still time for modeling to change to something better or worse depending on one's perspective .
  16. mitchnick
    Boinnnnnng!!!
  17. mitchnick
    Let's hope not too much of a typically good thing.
  18. mitchnick
    Euro blew chunks with the 23/24 forecast thru the fall of 2023. Interestingly, Cfs2 forecast starting mid 9/23 was warm and not canonical Niño. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/cfsv2_fcst_history/202309/htmls/usT2me3Mon.html
  19. mitchnick
    Maybe @Weather Will can post some of the monthly maps when he gets a chance.
  20. mitchnick
    For coastal locations, it'll be harder for snow, but it'll still be dependent on exact track and surface High locations. But if the precip forecasts from all the seasonal modeling are correct, there will at least be a lot of chances. If nothing else, it won't be a boring winter.
  21. mitchnick
    Updated Euro seasonal. A touch warmer for the winter months by around .5C. Still wet. Link to everything off this run. https://charts.ecmwf.int/?facets={"Product type"%3A["Experimental%3A AIFS"]%2C"Parameters"%3A[]%2C"Type"%3A[]%2C"Range"%3A["Seasonal"]}
  22. mitchnick
    Link for everything on Euro seasonal https://charts.ecmwf.int/?facets={"Product type"%3A["Experimental%3A AIFS"]%2C"Parameters"%3A[]%2C"Type"%3A[]%2C"Range"%3A["Seasonal"]}
  23. mitchnick
    Precip DJF & JFM
  24. mitchnick
    850 DJF & JFM
  25. mitchnick
    H5 DJF & JFM
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