mitchnick

Who's giving up? We're too stupid to use common sense.

They lost the Superbowl, so we can always remind them of that.

Never mind

What makes me stop and wonder is, how does a 992 slp off Orf only drop this kind of snowfall rate?

It's bad, for sure, but all the models have been all over the place. Unfortunately, even with a near perfect track, we're running into surface temp issues as Chuck's suggested. In the end, we're still in the same Niña regime which is killing us. The last gasp of trade winds (Niña influence) are progged to hang around thru the first day or 2 of March. If anyone is hoping for a late season miracle, my best guess would be wait until after the trade winds die. Otoh, if next weekend works out, that should now be considered a miracle too. Lol

Fwiw, and I know it ain't much, 6z GfsAI took the southern route with marginal temps at best. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=aigfs&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn&runtime=2026020906&fh=168

7 imby

Problem with precip too as the storm abruptly exits stage right. Iow, same problem as all winter north of central VA.

I think you can see differences better with the 5H anomaly maps. That said, the 2 runs are pretty different, but we'll drive ourselves crazy doing this every 6 hours between now and next Sunday.

One thing is for sure, both Gfs and Euro ops wanna' bring back the cold before the end of their runs.

If you factor in the Euro's proclivity to over amplify at this range and consider the seasonal trend as exhibited on the Gfs suite, I'd say you have the Icon solution.

No shock in light of the Ukie as they seem to think alike.

EuroAI with the same garbage, just a bit warmer.

Gefs majority keep it south.

It's worth a pic. Lol

Funny thing is, the Gfs, GfsAI, and Gefs bring out a stronger system and have it pass to our west. Geps, on the other hand, is what we want.

In that regard, 6z Eps did improve over 0z with the stronger wave and the trough off the east coast moving out quicker. Enough? Who knows at this point.

I was just going to mention that, but look how it changed since 0z. How can it be considered, let alone trusted, for more than 6 hours?

Bottom line, forecasts beyond a few days stink.

6z Gfs a warmer version of last month.

It was warm. I was in Annapolis that evening worried about temps, staring at a flag pole concerned as well about wind direction while sitting at the bar. Lol Nowadays, I would just be staring at my phone for temps and wind. But not knowing was part of the fun.

We'll be lucky if it's not south of South Carolina the way things have been going this year.

Looking at the Eps, fwiw, there definitely is a signal for both next weekend and the Cape storm.

When they stop painting blue over them, ahem...I mean us.

What's the panel before this look like? Thanks