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mitchnick

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Everything posted by mitchnick

  1. mitchnick
    That's cold smoke right there.
  2. mitchnick
    Maybe if I say it enough times. Lol Seriously, the warm layer on the Rgem is shallow and just above freezing, so "maybe" was my thinking/hope.
  3. mitchnick
    Rgem 84hrs, surface low off the coast with plenty precip to the w sw. If it changes back, that's a nice backside of fluff.
  4. mitchnick
    Last comment on 12z Nam, if you look at the 84hrs Conus surface map, there was a lot of precip to go. It was definitely heading toward the long long duration scenario of one form of precip or another.
  5. mitchnick
    That was the first huge sign to me the upgraded Euro stunk because the night before (0z) it dropped 20"+ imby, then the next run was 12"+, and I ended up with 3"+.
  6. mitchnick
    Yes, and remember a couple days ago the Nam went hard on an appetizer (1-3") just to the south of the Metros at the end of its run for Friday, and that's Poof!
  7. mitchnick
    Can't expect the Nam to get all thermals correct at the far reaches of its forecast period. And it's the far reaches where thermals become an important factor in final snow totals.
  8. mitchnick
    In the overall pattern, they have been in the long range. But I don't know if that applies in the short range....probably not, since each storm is different with its unique conditions.
  9. mitchnick
    Probably not wet due to low temps from 850mb down. More likely rimed or mini snowballs until the warm layer is deep enough to completely melt the flakes and then fall as sleet imho.
  10. mitchnick
    Looking at the 6z Ukie, it's a little cooler at 66hrs than 0z at 72hrs thanks to some better confluence. May be a tad slower. Cooler is probably likely since ensembles responded.
  11. mitchnick
    Here. Only goes out to 66hrs at 6z and 18z however. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ukmo_global&p=prateptype_ukmo-imp&rh=2026012206&fh=66&r=us_ma&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1
  12. mitchnick
    6z Ukie ensembles convinced they were too warm.
  13. mitchnick
    Eps remain nice.
  14. mitchnick
    GREAT!!! Link to all the parameters. https://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-prediction/forecast-systems.php?lang=en&mod=cmc_gdps
  15. mitchnick
  16. mitchnick
    Eps wasn't posted. Also Geps and Ukie ensemble.
  17. mitchnick
    Yeah, it went north some, but the 6z Rgem went south and dropped a foot before changeover. Nam still far out. 3k Nam, though only at its limits ofc60hrs, looked south of 12k fwiw.
  18. mitchnick
  19. mitchnick
    WRONG! Much better in spots with back end upper low on Monday.
  20. mitchnick
    Ninja'd
  21. mitchnick
    Gfs gets upper low action on Monday. Sweeeeeet!
  22. mitchnick
    Gfs still snowing 1pm on Monday!!
  23. mitchnick
    Little better than 0z
  24. mitchnick
    Mean
  25. mitchnick
    While waiting for the Euro, check out the last 48hrs of the GGEM. Incredible!
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