mitchnick

Bam, Bam, Bam!

I did a total thru 150hrs so some may be from tonight

Eps

AIEURO came south with snowfall.

Plenty of time too.

AIGFS is colder aloft than Gfs fwiw.

I don't want realism realism, I want fantasy!

Meh. Still close

Just gunna post this

At 60hrs, 12z gfs height lines are ever so slightly north of 6z. We'll see if that makes a difference.

I got nothing imby for that event. Thanks for ruining my day. Merry Christmas nonetheless!

Gefs have not been great with snowfall this year, and downright lousy at 96+ hrs. This threat may not workout for this forum, but that remains an accurate critique of the Gefs snowfall predictions this year.

Where's your red tag?

6z Euro came south some, but not far enough. Slams NYC. Nobody's safe with this one before Christmas imho.

Meh...my wife with has a long list of things of things to be pissed off about with me if this doesn't do it.

It did and consistent with the Euro's tendency for slow run-to-run changes. So I can see we'll all be running to the bathroom to check our phones at Christmas gatherings. Lol

The block is legit, but you and I have been screwed so many times over the years with 150hr+ storms and blizzards to not be surprised. It's just different IF this time it works in our favor. But, it is the Gfs, so...

Seasonal trends baby! Of course, that means ultimately we get nothing and Chill gets a foot+.

That system is getting pushed south over the last couple of runs. I have some weenie hope the push south continues. If central and southern VA can get 5-10" in early/mid December, no reason we don't have a shot at that system getting far enough south to much of this forum for snow.

Private forecast company out of the Midwest. Indiana I believe. Yes, legit. They were spot on last year with their calls of cold despite models when they were trying to break down the cold. But past performance is....

Or fake blues

Don't know if anyone saw this, but worth a quick read regarding new NOAA modeling. https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/noaa-deploys-new-generation-of-ai-driven-global-weather-models

Well, all I said was cold/BN without referring to snow. I think we all know it can still snow in an AN temps regime, just harder generally speaking. The fact is, however, we just went through a well BN period with most just squeaking out light total snowfall numbers save those in the central/southern VA locations. So "no", I didn't say we should punt anything. Simply that Europe is in line for BN temps on today's weeklies and that may rotate over the the Conus around the end of the month if history repeats as in the fall. The problem is Ralph, you were just dying to say that people are now punting January. My guess is, you were, in fact, the one thinking on punting January.

Let's hope he's right this time!

It's in Europe. https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/extended-anomaly-2t?base_time=202512200000&projection=opencharts_europe&valid_time=202512290000 Coincidentally, Europe was really cold before we had our cold starting mid-late November, so maybe we live through AN in January while we wait for another chance late Januaryinto February. Just a thought...or prayer.