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mitchnick

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Everything posted by mitchnick

  1. mitchnick
    We still don't know when it peaks or where residual warming/forcing resides as it decays. Those factors, IMHO, will determine whether the east and south have a chance at a big storm(s) in the second half of winter.
  2. mitchnick
    For the other parameters of the May Euro seasonal, go here: https://charts.ecmwf.int/?facets={"Product type"%3A["Experimental%3A AIFS"]%2C"Parameters"%3A[]%2C"Type"%3A[]%2C"Range"%3A["Seasonal"]} I'm not disappointed with what I'm seeing all things considered.
  3. mitchnick
    Don't know if anyone noticed, but since start of May FWIW, the Cfs2, which had been pretty AN for the winter, has backed down on the warmth quite a bit. Notwithstanding the usual long range Cfs2 caveats, it is, at least, a bit of a nod to the Cansips even if it still has a way to go. Here's a link to the latest 5H and surface temps starting at December. If you compare December and January to late April runs, you'll see what I mean. February's forecast just started showing up on May 1. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cfs-mon&region=us&pkg=z500a&runtime=2026050406&fh=7 https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cfs-mon&region=us&pkg=T2ma&runtime=2026050406&fh=7
  4. mitchnick
    The raw RONI and Cfs forecasts are usually way more extreme than the bias corrected, which often more accurate at this range. Bias corrected RONI still <2. I've never seen any of these posters mention the bias corrected.
  5. mitchnick
    But that also had the -PDO from hell (which I think you're referring to) that just killed any chance. It could happen again, but odds don't favor that happening again imho.
  6. mitchnick
    I recall Snowman posting the BOMM at +3-3.25C in 2023 and only broke +2C for 1 trimonthly. Location of the best forcing will be what makes or breaks winter in the east this year.
  7. mitchnick
    Is it me, or are these mets hyping this Niño acting like they've never seen one before? I mean, there's going to be a mod or strong Niño. So what...we just had one a few years ago and a 3rd one in 10 years. You'd think it was another Pinatubo event by their tone.
  8. mitchnick
    Nailed me. Still raining. Has to be closed to an inch or more with lots of T&L.
  9. mitchnick
    Don't fret the AN temps. April 2002 had a similar period with temps in the 90's if I recall. All I remember is that it was particularly miserable thanks to poison ivy I was enjoying at the time. Ughhh
  10. mitchnick
    Bias corrected numbers found here are around .5C cooler. https://www.stormsurf.com/page2/links/ensocurr.html
  11. mitchnick
    Weekly SSTA (just updated) for Enso 3.4 and 4 have been stuck at +.2C and +.6C respectively for the past 3 weeks. Looking forward to a month from now since we're still in a Niña hangover of sorts that should be wiped out by then. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst9120.for
  12. mitchnick
    The Bias Corrected version is "usually" closer to reality.
  13. mitchnick
    Just in case anyone was wondering why the hypsters haven't talked about the SOI. Lol
  14. mitchnick
    Seems strange to me that the western equarltorial Pacific has cooled over the last 7 days west of the dateline. Any ideas? The wwb is to last around 10 days per Cfs2 starting around the 17th. But I expected it to be warming west of the dateline. The cooling is on 2 different maps, though more apparenton one than the other.
  15. mitchnick
    Mid Atlantic (DCA up to PHL at least) had a decent 6"+ storm in December, 1982 that was supposed to stay south in VA. Great Sunday night surprise as I remember it well. When I asked JB about it when he was still at Accuwx, he said he was jumping up and down saying it would come north but other forecasters overruled him.
  16. mitchnick
    15/16 was the last strong Niño, which is why I used it. But your observation supports the idea that you need a lot of things to go right to get a strong Niño and a warm start helps a lot.
  17. mitchnick
    Comparing this year to 4/1/15, 2015 was warmer in 3, 3.4 and 4. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst9120.for But after the pending wwb, there's nothing in site like it on the Cfs2 thru the end of June. I don't know about other models however.
  18. mitchnick
    Latest SSTA in 3.4 is +.2C as of 4/1. Gotta have a lot of things go right for those +2C tri-monthlies, though there is plenty of time if they do. In the meantime, the trades are progged to hold east of the dateline through the 15th-17th of the month.
  19. mitchnick
    The usual suspects are all trying to outdo one another for clicks. Nobody knows with certainty what ssta will look like after the wwb, which is what counts, along with what comes after. Enso predictions have a way of humbling the honest forecasters imho.
  20. mitchnick
    Cfs2 has really responded to its December forecast over the last week. Top link is from 18z March 30th and bottom link 18z April 6. January likewise if you scroll forward. Precip is a wowzer too both months. Temps a little AN as expected, but in January it won't matter! https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cfs-mon&region=us&pkg=z500a&runtime=2026033018&fh=9 https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cfs-mon&region=us&pkg=z500a&runtime=2026040618&fh=8
  21. mitchnick
    Right. That doesn't conflict with what I said that we have a pending trade and then westerly burst. But I was talking about a return of trades after the westerly burst near the end of May. He skipped over that and says maybe another westerly burst in June. I was under the impression with your post that there were models other than the Cfs2 that showed westerly winds maintaining beginning with the westerly burst starting April 17th or so and beyond that pushes east of the dateline. And by the way, the maps in that last link you posted in Deoras' post are old. One is from 3/19 and the other is dated 3/18 (check the solid black line on the maps that say "Begin forecast period"...don't know why his 4/3 post would do that. If interested, the current maps are at the link below along with the current Cfs2 forecast that goes out into June that he references. https://www.stormsurf.com/page2/links/ensocurr.html
  22. mitchnick
    Which models show westerlies "taking over" Enso regions? I ask because after the pending trades and westerly burst, Cfs2 brings back the trades starting around the last week in May.
  23. mitchnick
    I'd roll the dice with that.
  24. mitchnick
    Not that anyone should care what I think, I'm stillnot seeing west anomalies prevailing over forecasts periods thru June. Gfs and Cfs are now both showing (I understand the relationship between the models) and easterly anomaly over the next week that has intensified over the past few days as reflected on the 2 attachments. That should knock 3.4 temps down a bit again. Again, I'm not saying a mod or strong Niño isn't possible, but more that the Niña continues to put up a decent fight.
  25. mitchnick
    New Cansips out on TropicalTidbits. Similar to last month with lots of blocking. Drier for the east coast than typical for a Niño, but it's a long range forecast.
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