mitchnick

Gotta love Gfs temp anomalies after the snow and sleet fest.

Where the hell is Bliz? 0z Gfs is a dream for most here.

Gfs colder with the 12/3 threat than 18z. Gotta watch this one. A bit convoluted, but there's a cold High up north doing some dirty work.

Negative? Not considering the Eps AI I posted and the 18z Gefs. The weeklies change so much and have been too warm this fall. The weeklies have such low skill because modeling skill at their range is poor, I honestly no longer put any stock in them. If other people wish to, that's up to them. If you noticed, even Don Sutherland includes more hedges on his analysis than an English garden. But like I said in my post, I think discussing modeling that has such poor skill is just the source of unnecessary angst. I'm not suggesting it should be stopped, it's just useless imho.

The weeklies change every day! In 3 days they will be different and it will be a new concern. The fact is, the modeling just can't do what we want and hope for it to do. As I get older, it's clear that long range modeling must be viewed with an eye on seasonal trends, both in the actual weather and the model errors/biases. IOW, how have the models been doing with medium and long range forecasts of late and what is the general tenor of the weather. This year, modeling has general been too warm at longer ranges and it frankly hasn't been a toaster oven for the past few months. All this considered, advertised medium/long range warmups should be viewed skeptically until they start to prevail. Until then, don't worry about it at all. And on a related note, it maybe fine to dissect every medium and long range model run because it's what we do. But until the mr/lr modeling can prove they are worth anything by being accurate and do so with day-to-day consistency, they cause more useless angst than they're worth imho and making forecasts off them with any certainty as I see being made are folly. Enjoy the cold Thanksgiving holiday weekend (another sign of the coming winter flavor) and forget about December's weather until December! Rant over.

18z Eps AI sorely lacking warm temps over the period once past Thanksgiving Eve. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=eps_aifsens&p=sfct_anom-p105090-imp&fh=loop&dpdt=&mc=

Reality will be nothing like that map, so no need to fret.

Yes, Op now that I look at it. I thought it was the ensembles on Pivotal. Too any models, and I never thought that would ever come out of this weenie little mind of mine.

It falls at the end of the run. It takes a slp system far enough to our west and a cold High in Quebec doesn't budge as it goes to our west and weakens. Cold air holds on and probably ends as drizzle or -rn. For those old enough to remember, Thanksgiving Sunday night into Monday morning 1978 had a similar setup and dropped 3.5+" around BWI and IAD. DCA was closer to 2" I think.

With 3.4 at -.7C and underwater temps at -2c+, it wouldn't fade too fast imho. But it would hopefully end the typical, overwhelming Niña crap we often see in winter. In any event, if I had a choice, I'd roll the dice with what the Eps is showing.

Nah, he just stopped taking his meds.

Today’s Eps again says bye-bye to the Niña by Christmas with a serious westerly wind burst anomaly at 850mb.

Not one model had BWI BN for November, though the Cansips was the closest while still being a bit AN. Yet, thru yesterday, BWI is -.1. After this week's cold shot, BN for the month is a virtual guarantee. So eff the back and forth of the models because this Fall has been finding a way to squash threatened warm-ups into average or below. THAT'S what's important imho.

Nobody knows with any certainty, just like any other year, but most there speak with way too much certainty imho. The only person who is consistently decent with seasonal forecasting year in and year out is Raindancewx. His forecast for our neck of the woods is slightly BN. He doesn't rely on modeling. I do! Lol I say go with the Cansips and forget the daily back and forth.

It has become unreadable. The haughtyness is sickening.

Cansips forecast for November has been very good. That's the seasonal I'm riding until it fails.

In light of the current weak Niña numbers, if correct, today's progged 850 wind anomalies off the Eps should spell the demise of the Niña before the end of December.

I'll take it for early December. I think we all do OK this winter, disproportionately better the further north imho

It takes it to a hair over the mean during the first week of January. What's the big deal? More normal presented as sensational on the internet.

Come on what? It's a perfect example that the models are doing poorly with warm forecasts and second, we're all wasting our time with these digital slot machines we call models! Lol

As evidence of my statement that longer range forecasts haven't done well this year, top pick is last night's EPS forecast for Black Friday 12z and bottom forecast us from 11/15 12z.

The question is what period you're discussing. There are conflicting signs the way I see it. Even conflicts with the models' own MJO forecasts and 5H forecasts. In the end, all that be done is to look at modeling and hug whichever one suites one's opinion/gut/biases since everything remains on the table once out 7+ days. But we can't deny the medium and long range forecasts this year of warm, like last year, have not been great. So that along with a weak Niña on its way out the door by year end with noticeable western Pacific cooling, I think the urge to assume warmer LR forecasts are going to verify is risky for now. If they do verify, that will change things in my weenie mind.

If you put this EPS in motion prior to the 360hr link below, the SER is getting squashed. Also, AO region looks good. Plus, beyond this period, the Eps extended shows movement into 8. Still not high confidence on the MJO, but Cfs2, which is an extension of the Gefs, has the MJO in 8 too. So there's evidence of positive steps in December, which is better than the opposite. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=eps&region=nhem&pkg=z500a&runtime=2025112200&fh=360

That's because liquid precip and >32F temps are a guarantee for much of the year (hence "dog bites man" weather) throughout the Conus, save the higher elevations. But I know you know this!