mitchnick
Members-
Posts
27,753 -
Joined
Content Type
Profiles
Blogs
Forums
American Weather
Media Demo
Store
Gallery
Everything posted by mitchnick
-
That's cold smoke right there.
-
Maybe if I say it enough times. Lol Seriously, the warm layer on the Rgem is shallow and just above freezing, so "maybe" was my thinking/hope.
-
Rgem 84hrs, surface low off the coast with plenty precip to the w sw. If it changes back, that's a nice backside of fluff.
-
Last comment on 12z Nam, if you look at the 84hrs Conus surface map, there was a lot of precip to go. It was definitely heading toward the long long duration scenario of one form of precip or another.
-
That was the first huge sign to me the upgraded Euro stunk because the night before (0z) it dropped 20"+ imby, then the next run was 12"+, and I ended up with 3"+.
-
Yes, and remember a couple days ago the Nam went hard on an appetizer (1-3") just to the south of the Metros at the end of its run for Friday, and that's Poof!
-
Can't expect the Nam to get all thermals correct at the far reaches of its forecast period. And it's the far reaches where thermals become an important factor in final snow totals.
-
In the overall pattern, they have been in the long range. But I don't know if that applies in the short range....probably not, since each storm is different with its unique conditions.
-
Probably not wet due to low temps from 850mb down. More likely rimed or mini snowballs until the warm layer is deep enough to completely melt the flakes and then fall as sleet imho.
-
Looking at the 6z Ukie, it's a little cooler at 66hrs than 0z at 72hrs thanks to some better confluence. May be a tad slower. Cooler is probably likely since ensembles responded.
-
Here. Only goes out to 66hrs at 6z and 18z however. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ukmo_global&p=prateptype_ukmo-imp&rh=2026012206&fh=66&r=us_ma&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1
-
-
-
GREAT!!! Link to all the parameters. https://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-prediction/forecast-systems.php?lang=en&mod=cmc_gdps
-
-
-
Yeah, it went north some, but the 6z Rgem went south and dropped a foot before changeover. Nam still far out. 3k Nam, though only at its limits ofc60hrs, looked south of 12k fwiw.
-
-
WRONG! Much better in spots with back end upper low on Monday.
-
Ninja'd
-
Gfs gets upper low action on Monday. Sweeeeeet!
-
Gfs still snowing 1pm on Monday!!
-
Little better than 0z
-
-
January 24-26: Miracle or Mirage JV/Banter Thread!
mitchnick replied to SnowenOutThere's topic in Mid Atlantic
While waiting for the Euro, check out the last 48hrs of the GGEM. Incredible!
