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mitchnick

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Everything posted by mitchnick

  1. mitchnick
    Oh, the "not me, it's you" defense. Lol If you call trying to get to the bottom line of a post/position an attack, I can't help you. But the bottom line is, you haven't denied my synopsis of your post/position because it's accurate. Which is fine. You can take whatever position you want. But clarity matters, that's all.
  2. mitchnick
    Oh, the need for a cheap shot can't escape you can it? You've shown your true colors. That was easy.
  3. mitchnick
    So you think everything in law is black and white? You're kidding me right? The point you miss is one doesn’t need to say a lot to make a point. The past 2 or 3 months, you've been triggered every month with the updated seasonal forecasts because they haven't shown a furnace in the east. In essence, your warning is models have under forecasted the strength of ridges in the past which "could" be taken as guaranteed future results i.e. stronger ridges resulting in more heat. But no real forecast because we just don't know yet...but it still "could." That really is the sum and substance of all those posts the way I see it. Where am I wrong?
  4. mitchnick
    Can't you ever answer a simple question with a simple answer? When I was in law school, they beat into our heads: be brief and to the point. I didn't ask if any models should be taken at face value. I asked if" the ridges will be or won't be stronger and thereby causing current seasonal modeling for the southeast, mid atlantic, and/or northeast to be wrong?" So, do you or don't you? Because right now, your statements are nothing more than "could be." Which leaves them open to you claiming victory if they are stronger and defending the statements if they aren't by saying "I said could be."
  5. mitchnick
    You've posted this several times this year and even before the 24/25 winter. So are you saying the ridges will be or won't be stronger and thereby causing current seasonal modeling for the southeast, mid atlantic, and/or northeast to be wrong? I mean you could be right, or you could be wrong obviously, but your post appear to be simply saying "current seasonal modeling could be wrong." Forget about the rest of the globe because I'm sure we'll find seasonal modeling too strong or weak with ridges/troughs as that's a given.
  6. mitchnick
    My point was despite any warming, last year's Niña was pretty canonical. This year's Niño can still happen (canonical) by either the PDO coming around or the Niño overwhelming it. And when you consider all the seasonal models are pretty well aligned to one, odds favor it short of a total failure of all seasonal modeling.
  7. mitchnick
    Idk, last year's Niña was pretty standard for Niñas with snows along the east coast and cold.
  8. mitchnick
    Well, I'm happy with the new Cansips. Still too cool up north I suspect, but the precip anomalies are great if you like coastal and temps are more than workable for many I would say. And fwiw, the end of the run is cooling waters around Japan dramatically and warming the NE Pacific. End of -PDO maybe, or at least working on it? Definitely working to build a Niña at the end though. 500mb starting December: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cansips&region=namer&pkg=z500a&runtime=2026080100&fh=4 Surface temps starting December: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cansips&region=us&pkg=T2ma&runtime=2026080100&fh=4 Precip starting December: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cansips&region=us&pkg=apcpna_month&runtime=2026080100&fh=4
  9. mitchnick
    It's bad enough current SSTA vary from different products/sources, now we have models prog depictions following along. No wonder there's rarely agreement on forecasts...or on this Board! Lol
  10. mitchnick
    I thought the discussion was regarding El Niño summers. What relevance does throwing La Nada or Niñas into the mix have? Subtle deflect however.
  11. mitchnick
    It was. My daughter was born in August of 91'. My wife remembers it in more detail than me! Lol
  12. mitchnick
    Only "leaning" AN, so even if right, possibly muted at times.
  13. mitchnick
    Gotta' love how Florida is still in the snow despite being south of the mean slp track depicted on that map. The "A" part I believe...the "I" part, nasso' much.
  14. mitchnick
    El Niño summer from here on out.
  15. mitchnick
    That's pretty cool.
  16. mitchnick
    Especially considering the quality forecasts they can get on this Board.
  17. mitchnick
    1.2" from the 2 thunderstorms that just passed through here. Looks like plenty more for most to come.
  18. mitchnick
    Nope. It's called faith.
  19. mitchnick
    My mistake Larry. Sorry. Still, I contend the AN forecast in 23/24 from the Cfs2 was not bad as it was on the correct side of normal for the east+ and got warmer as the season approached.
  20. mitchnick
    Without going into a competing long response, I frankly just don't care about a warming planet. There's nothing I can do about it aside from having a well insulated home (which I have since I receive the highest rating from my local energy provider for houses my size) and driving a fuel efficient vehicle. It is not, nor has it ever been, on my list of life's concerns at all. I care about weather imby and judge that weather from current conditions and progs. How those conditions got there, I don't care.
  21. mitchnick
    I'm not taking anything personal on this Board. Lol I'm just being blunt. You've said several times that the seasonal models are just spitting out canonical enso winter forecasts and Cfs2 clearly didn't based on the temp forecast you criticized but never posted. And remember, you picked the 23/24 winter as the example. But we agree on 1 thing. The seasonal models won't be right in all locations around the globe. If you're going to judge them based on an entire continent or the world, then fine, they stink. But that doesn’t mean they can't be close in some areas. I only care about the east, specifically the N. Mid Atlantic. As Gawx has proven in several recent posts on the subject, they've been pretty good around here lately, including 23/24. So they are worth considering. And like I said, if they showed warm, please don't kid yourself that you wouldn't be posting or referencing them.
  22. mitchnick
    By the way, why didn't you bother to post the Cfs2 temp forecast for the 23/24 winter? Since we're nearing the end of July, this is what it had from the 8/1/23-8/10/23 period. Pretty warm (and not very Niño canonical), isn't it?
  23. mitchnick
    Tell it to the new Jamstec winter forecast. I'm just the messenger. Maps stink, but that's all they seem to offer.
  24. mitchnick
    Lol. That's definitely the 3rd time you pulled up 23/24 when you tried to back door dispute every seasonal forecast. First the NMME, then the Euro seasonal, and the Cfs2 at least this time if not more. As been discussed many times, this year ain't 23/24. But at this point, none of the seasonal modeling is showing anything close to 23/24. But I'm sure if one does, we'll see it posted by you more than 3 or 4 times. Honestly, I seriously believe you want it to be warm. Deny it all you want, but that's the impression I'm getting from you at this point.
  25. mitchnick
    This is December. Loop through it. They're not bad thanks to lower heights. Edit: NNE is obviously warmer as in most moderate or strong Niños https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cfs-mon&region=eus&pkg=T2ma&runtime=2026071818&fh=5 2nd Edit: Here's the link to 850 temps starting December https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cfs-mon&region=us&pkg=T850a&runtime=2026071818&fh=5
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