mitchnick

Another "end of the run" tease on the Gfs without an ending.

It breaks the DT rule with a closed 5H low west of the Mississippi.

End of Ggem run monster probably would be rain, but we'll never know.

Gfs has never worked.

Until ensemble patterns look good, ensemble snowfall is decent, and we have accompanying operational models showing a storm(s), THEN we have something. We actually had this at 12z with the Euro suite, but none of the others. There was a day when that was good enough, but we all know how horrid the latest version of the Euro can be as we may remember from last winter and it's days 8-12 teases. We need the Euro suite to hold in one fashion or another and the GFS & GEM suites to join with it. Then I'm legit psyched.

The kind of pattern that supports the operational storm.

Euro weeklies are still below or around normal, but have lost the AN precip during the 2nd period to a little BN unfortunately.

Eps really lit up.

4.0-8.0

Eps, as usual, are a miss tonthe north for the 8th/9th.

6z EuroAI likes the 10th-11th. We'll see how many more runs it can hold. Lol

Or maybe just regurgitating the Euro. Lol

I went over to TT and put the 5H anomalies in motion with the slid function. I looks like the lowest anomalies backed in from the east and not from west to east. Idk if it makes a difference, but I was expecting it to move from west to east. I'm not saying it's bad, because I don't know. Maybe a red tagger can chime in. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=eps&region=us&pkg=z500a&runtime=2025122800&fh=12

That looks great! But the issue I always have with the 5 day mean is how did it get to that mean as in what happened over the 5 day period to get all the players in the right spot.

6z was even better

6z Gfs (days 8-9) is a perfect example of a wasted block. But this run is so different from 0z, it's beyond entertainment and fantasy.

Gunna' need a very nice -Epo after losing the -Nao.

Go with JI on this one. Lol

It's that pesky GL low pumping the ridge as they always do. Too far away to worry, but several people seemed to not understand why the surface High to the north was ineffective.

Look what's in the Great Lakes.

Come on. End of run storms are a dime a dozen and I can't think of one that's ever worked out. Too many things to go wrong Until we get a confirmation by the operationals and ensembles, all we have is potential. Big deal.

It's close though.

As it often does.

Must you be so greedy?

Same unworkable garbage at 186hrs on the Gfs with this roll over ridge in the central US. Edit: On the Gem, only warmer.