mitchnick

I hadn't posted this, but meant to relating to the trend issue. Top pic is the Euro seasonal June temp forecast for OND and the bottom is July's forecast for same period. I know 2 months aren't a trend, but again, it's moving toward the Cansip with a non-furnace Canada into the Conus. Plus, AN areas aren't going wild.

That's why I like the Cansips...it can be used to argue both sides pretty convincingly! But seriously, as I said in my last post, I think seasonal model trends for a future season, and not a 1 month forecast, are worth following.

Seasonal models by definition are intended for periods beyond 1 month, which is why I consider weeklies as being more accurate for 1 month, though flawed too as we know. But that's why I look at forecast trends in the seasonal models as a whole as a better method than taking the forecasts at face value.

Agreed, but you know as well as I do you'd never would have posted first! Lol

I didn't want to say it, but thought the same thing.

Ok, we're back to the 1 particular month issue again, so you'd have to do some kind of compilation of comparing 1 month forecasts verifications. But I've always considered the Cansips a seasonal model even though it forecast period begins at 1 month. For purposes of this discussion, I'm looking for forecast trends in modeling for 6 months out. And as I said, Cfs2 and Euro seasonal show similar trends in areas of at or BN as the Cansips.

Cansips is not perfect, and I never said it was. But your statement it's biased in one direction doesn't always hold true. Ask the central, southern, and eastern areas of the conus about 1/25. Top map Cansips 500mb 1/25 forecast from 7/24 Middle map 2m 1/25 forecast from 7/24 Bottom map actual 1000mb map from 1/25 I'd like to know how many other seasonal models were showing any BN temps in January from their 7/24 forecast, other the Pac NW.

But we can always pick out model errors with every model, short, medium, and/or long range. Cansips had a "relatively" decent forecast last winter and now the ever warm Cfs2 and arguably the latest Euro seasonal are looking similar to its forecast for this winter. They could all be right or wrong, but to pick out any one forecast from any one of them and say "it was wrong here, so I don't trust it" is tantamount to saying all modeling is useless. If that's the way you feel, that's fine because sometimes they are, but to cherry pick one forecast doesn't support your case one iota it's going to be wrong.

Remember. The Euro is giving us 3 month averages on each forecast map, so keep that in mind when looking at the forecasts. The trend is what you need to consider as well as actual numbers.

Remember. The Euro is giving us 3 month averages on each forecast map, so keep that in mind when looking at the forecasts. The trend is what you need to consider as well as actual numbers.

July updated Euro seasonal still going with a La Nada: https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/seasonal_system5_nino_plumes?base_time=202507010000&nino_area=NINO3-4 Here's a link to all the forecast parameters. It has cooled temps since the last run across NA and has a normal temps in Canada vs last run lending credence to the Cansips. https://charts.ecmwf.int/?facets={"Product type"%3A["Experimental%3A AIFS"]%2C"Parameters"%3A[]%2C"Type"%3A[]%2C"Range"%3A["Long (Months)"]}

I get it, but it's going to miss a whole lot of changes is SSTA, solar, and other variables before winter arrives, so at this range it's hard to get excited one way or the other. Then again, it's hard to get excited over anything at this range.

Roll forward didn't work last year, so we're back to "who knows."

Great news. Think of the savings on heating.

Don't know if anyone noticed or if it's been posted previously, but cyclonicwx.com now offers some decent OISST worldwide SST and SSTA graphs for the last 10 years that make for easy reference with each area broken down separately. https://cyclonicwx.com/sst/ Click on "OISST" in the banner near the top.

Almost as brutal as the 11/12 winter for those who like snow and cold.

Loud, windy storms around 10:30-11 last night left exactly an inch. Tired of lawn mowing...as every year.

Updated Cansips just out, though dry for the winter, keeps it BN most areas north of the Mason-Dixon line. This is a link starting in November. Summer is reasonably tolerable over most of the conus too. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cansips&region=us&pkg=T2ma&runtime=2025070100&fh=4 500mb starting November https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cansips&region=nhem&pkg=z500a&runtime=2025070100&fh=4 Enso starting November https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cansips&region=global&pkg=ssta_noice&runtime=2025070100&fh=4

Updated Cansips just out, though dry for the winter, keeps it BN most areas north of the Mason-Dixon line. This is a link starting in November. Summer is reasonably tolerable over most of the conus too. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cansips&region=us&pkg=T2ma&runtime=2025070100&fh=4 500mb starting November https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cansips&region=nhem&pkg=z500a&runtime=2025070100&fh=4 Enso starting November https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cansips&region=global&pkg=ssta_noice&runtime=2025070100&fh=4

Good news. That should give Japan second thoughts before attacking Pearl Harbor again.

Not all, but my recollection, selective maybe, is that max AN temps often occur with a heat wave in June in Niñas then not so AN the rest of the summer. I guess we'll see if my memory is tainted with a wishcast.

That's cheating!

It's miserable, typical BWI weather up here 72dp. Just mowed the grass like a true idiot, but gotta' stay in shape for snow shoveling in the upcoming BIG winter!

Cfs2 pretty consistent (2+ weeks) with around normal temps to below in the east for the rest of the summer, with at or above rainfall. Basically, a continuation of what we've been seeing. This is fairly different from recent summers, so I wonder whether it's a "hint" for a change in the winter Niña winter pattern.

If we get a normal/cool, wet summer, that sure is different from any summer in years. Hopefully, that means a better winter. P.s. Sorry Voyager