mitchnick

It's been showing up more on modeling than reality since I moved up here unfortunately.

Talk about coming out of nowhere.

It does. But I was wondering where all the cold air went. Lol

3k Nam advertising a last minute fail for eastern NC snow.

Great beach weekend at KD Hills. https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lon=-75.664&lat=36.013

So AI jumps north from 12z with Wednesday threat and the plays the disappearing act with the 4-6" event it had for next weekend. So much for the notion of AI being consistent.

That seems to be an AI thing. I've been noticing that on a number of both AI runs.

Incredible how far south this has been crushed.

Yeah. It was on the Gfs and I posted on it in a response to Stormtracker.

I was looking at snowfall on Pivotal, not that it matters.

No. It's really weak too. Not more than 1" east of the mountains.

Ukie has nothing for us or anyone else for that matter.

On the Gfs? They've got to be excited.

If you use thr slide function for this 5H vort, not only is the weekend storm off the coast with its low height killing us, there's a s/w in Canada heading south making sure it gets crushed to our south. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=z500_vort&runtime=2026013012&fh=6

Height lines are oriented nw/se at 99hrs. Pretty low probability it does.

This weekend's storm is causing such low heights on the Icon that the threat is going to have a hard time climbing north. It needs to get outta there faster. What a way to screw us twice. Assuming it's right.

They may have had 1 week AN, but not the month. Because they are daily, they can jump around with the best of them as we know. The oldest precip forecast at the free Euro site goes back to the 1/7 forecast. Here's the link. More recent forecasts can be found by clicking on the triangle icon to the top, right of the map. The accuracy of the forecasts probably depend on who's looking at the map! Lol https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/extended-anomaly-tp?base_time=202601070000&projection=opencharts_north_america&valid_time=202601190000

What haunts me is the weeklies. BN temps for every week thru early March, but BN or well BN precip 2/2-2/15. We get to normal the remaining weeks. Whatever falls thru 2/15 has a high probability of being snow, which is obviously the good news. Getting it to precipitate is the challenge. But, on the bright side, we "may" end with a Niño-like mid-Feb thru early March with only a little bit of luck needed. All this is based on both Euro and Cfs2 weeklies.

Why so hostile? Lol We can all point to events that went north or south. But like my post above, I'm speaking greatest climo anomalies. The pattern right now with the block is quite anomalous. Maybe it will work out and maybe it won't. But I have my fears for the reasons stated.

You're right. I should have phrased it relative to climo because I'm below and down south will likely be above after Sunday.

That's certainly my fear at this point. But it goes back to December when I said I was concerned with central and southern VA being the jackpot because I couldn't recall a decent winter up here when then we're bullseyed first and that you want to be in the bullseye with the first storm because that's often an indicator of the season. There's still time, but the block really suggests at this point storms will continue to gravitate to our south.

I realized that it had a bit of a longer event so attached is the 48hrs precip maps which show additional qpf up north and west.

AI GFS is, for the 2nd run in a row (maybe me but I didn't check), is a much bigger event as in most, if not all, from DCA north is snow. Pivotal doesn't offer snowfall maps for AI GFS, so here's precip. Basically, makes it a decent coastal that passes to our south.

Euro AI next week 10:1

There's a whole lot of blocking to the north thanks to the -AO. I wouldn't count on much, if any. It could even be pushed south because of it....too far south that is.