mitchnick

I don't care. They're not my maps. I would use different colors.

I still don't trust WB maps. Here's the temp forecast off the Euro site. Cold is way overdone on WB.

That is the coolest of the forecast weeks off the Euro site, but still apparently in the normal category for temps and precip.

No real argument from me on their accuracy, but that doesn’t change the fact that they keep trending warmer instead of colder as they did earlier in the fall and early winter.

Gefs still suck by the end of the run unfortunately.

Another generally warmer than yesterday run on the weeklies. Hopefully climo temps, which are favored, will do the trick.

Updated Cansips 5H fwiw. This is the link to January and you can go from there. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cansips&region=nhem&pkg=z500a&runtime=2026010100&fh=0 Temps: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cansips&region=us&pkg=T2ma&runtime=2026010100&fh=0 Precip (dry) https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cansips&region=us&pkg=apcpna_month&runtime=2026010100&fh=0 EDIT: Niño! https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cansips&region=global&pkg=ssta_noice&runtime=2026010100&fh=11

End of the 6z Gefs, if correct, looks workable as it may be a bit wetter with marginal temps.

Geps may not be so bad and is probably the coolest of the 3 0z ensembles past the 12th. Gfs/Gefs is a cluster no doubt. As Chuck's pointed out, Eps ain't bad. I short, anything but what the Gfs/Gefs show. But at this point, any of the 3 is possible, or a combination, is possible. Iow, none of them is likely correct. Lol

About 1/2" up here in Hanover. Still light, unaccumulating snow falling.

No worries. 12z Euro has fresh Canadian air headed our way at the end of the run. Lol

Gfs suite has been adamant with bringing the cold back just before the 15th and was not as bullish on the period before/around the 10th as the Euro suite was. Frankly, as screwed up as the Euro suite has performed, I'm more inclined to go with the Gfs as crazy as it sounds. The Geps, at the end of its 0z run, was closer to the Gfs with well BN temps moving through the Midwest our way.

Idk if that trough out in the Atlantic on the far right of the screen is what's causing the SER or vice-versa. I would guess that unless it moves out, however, it will act like a 50-50 low and pump the heights over the east coast.

12z Eps run 500mb anomaly map Cape posted Monday evening on top for 0z 1/9. Last night's run of the Eps only 36 hours later on the bottom. More evidence the reliability of ensembles can match that of operationals.

I know. Hence "fantasy" snow.

GfsAI has another light to moderate fantasy snow near the end of the run.

They'll build back up...giving time for the SE Ridge to reform of course.

It will never end thanks to the SE Ridge. And we're up to almost January 15th.

Good luck. Other than a couple of quick pinches with the needles, you'll feel nothing. I say this confidently having had it done a few times and coming from a family of dentists.

Almost, but not yet. But that will come if we fail with snow. Trust me.

Got me pegged! Lol I'm just getting old and crusty.

I'm just tired of getting psyched for something good, only to turn out bad when, in retrospect, I could have seen it coming with a deeper dive. This effin' Niña is killing snow chances. And even if it does snow, they're weak, dry sauce. And the worse part is, we're stuck with it this winter.

You're missing my point. As we get closer to the week(s) after 1/12, can we expect them to get warmer too? And why shouldn't we since the models were too warm since 12/1, being wrong going the other way is a death blow to prime winter. Again, I can't say what will happen, but I can say model performance this year gives me no confidence in any forecast past 5-7 days.

Just to put a point on what I'm saying, look at the last 3 days from the weeklies for temps during the week of 1/5-1/12. Sunday's is on top, then yesterday, and today. So we get warmer as we approach the forecast period? That's no way to run a winter if you want snow. Not saying it's over or it won't happen ultimately, but I am saying my confidence in the models is essentially gone.

With every operational model run, I'm doubting more and more the great pattern. The trough always ends up across the Pac NW, leading to a ridge somewhere in the east. Getting close to pulling the plug. The models were way too warm in December. Now when they're cold we should believe them as being correct?