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mitchnick

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Everything posted by mitchnick

  1. mitchnick
    That's not east based. I like the way warmest anomalies fade west.
  2. mitchnick
    Good news
  3. mitchnick
    Sun has become pretty active again contrary to your typical transition to a minimum. Let's see if that continues. https://solen.info/solar/index.html
  4. mitchnick
    Late to the party on this one, but this is the Cfs2 ssta map prog for December. Sure looks basinwide to these old eyes. Definitely not Modoki.
  5. mitchnick
    Nope. You're apparently centered on I95 locations.
  6. mitchnick
    Sux to be those other places. But most are centered around the I95 concrete jungle heat island. No surprise there and to be expected as the development has not ended.
  7. mitchnick
    Harrisburg Capital City Airport is -.8 thru June 26th. It's been closer to Niño around here. The heat waves this year have been transient or you wouldn't have a BN number thru the first 26 days of the month. Since this one won't start until Tuesday, the month will still likely end BN. My hunch is this heat will be transient again, but we'll have to see.
  8. mitchnick
    PDO still drifting higher regardless and contrary to last year's drop at this point.
  9. mitchnick
    Unfortunately, in this hobby, no bias = no hope! Lol
  10. mitchnick
    Won't be a record year, save the highest elevations. No one has said otherwise. But it's incredible how just posting model progs can cause such a stir. But as I said in my post to Michigan, no seasonal forecasts I've seen are flat out furnaces in the east. That and the surprisingly cold forecasts by at least the Cansips and Jamstec make me at least optimistic for a few snow chances considering the AN precip along the coast by most models.
  11. mitchnick
    The fact that you would put in writing the last sentence is what you live for says it all about you. Just sayin'. And to think you denied it before last winter when I accused you of just that.
  12. mitchnick
    Yep. So far, there are no seasonal forecasts that are undeniable furnace forecasts in the east, save maybe for NNE. But NNE can still get lots of snow with AN+ temps.
  13. mitchnick
    The Jamstec. My new favorite seasonal model...so far. https://www.jamstec.go.jp/aplinfo/sintexf/e/seasonal/outlook.html
  14. mitchnick
    Looks Modoki, but that's probably a long shot at this point. But it's not alone completely as Cansips has a more Modoki/central Pacific centered max: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cansips&region=global&pkg=sstaMean_noice_month&runtime=2026060100&fh=8
  15. mitchnick
    The wait is over. After today, shorter days until late December. One thing I'm noticing is, despite chances for AN temps among some models, I'm not seeing any all out furnace runs...not yet at least. Happy Fathers Day to all the fathers out there.
  16. mitchnick
    Great post! Averaging out Dec-Feb, it doesn't really look too much different from the NMME in the east. I don't care about its forecast for the rest of the world.
  17. mitchnick
    Looks beautiful!
  18. mitchnick
    Here are CPC numbers for all 4 Enso areas for 6/10/15 & 6/10/26: 10JUN2015 25.5 2.0 27.8 1.2 28.7 0.9 29.8 0.9 10JUN2026 26.1 2.7 28.3 1.6 29.2 1.5 30.1 1.3ⁿ If you divide Enso 1.2 anomaly into the other 3 areas' anomalies for both years, you get respectively 60%, 45% and 45% in 2015 and 59.25%, 55.55% and 48.15% this year. Comparing the 2 years, Enso 3 is nearly identical for both years and 3.4 and 4 are a hair warmer this year than 2015. Obviously, there may be other ways to figure it, but I'd have to say that they are very similar with a slight edge to 2015 as being more east based under this method. P.s. @GaWx will surely check my math! Lol
  19. mitchnick
    Time would be my guess.
  20. mitchnick
    Idk Don, but even I must admit Don's in denial on this one Buckeye.
  21. mitchnick
    It was last year at this time when the PDO started its dump. Interesting to see if we repeat. I know Larry uses Ncep(?) numbers, but I think they pretty much followed the same trend as this graph. Feel fee to correct me Larry.
  22. mitchnick
    Didn't realize this thread was here. I've been over the main Enso thread fighting the warmanistas with no help from @Stormchaserchuck1. Honestly, the Cfs2 does have historic potential written all over it for February and March. Coincidentally, latest 500mb runs for December looked similar at times to Euro seasonal fwiw.
  23. mitchnick
    From someone who has, for better or worse, followed the Cfs2 forecast follies over the years, the bias corrected SSTA plumes have almost always been more accurate, whether warmer or cooler. Fwiw
  24. mitchnick
    This month's Euro seasonal doesn't look that impressed for hurricanes/tropical systems beyond climo, with only the eastern Pacific showing a slightly higher frequency while all areas down in the intensity (ACE) department, except western Pacific where it forecasts straight climo.
  25. mitchnick
    Nobody is forcing anyone to consider any model. But if someone posts a model's SSTA forecast, what's so wrong or unusual about posting it's resulting weather forecast. It's done all the time.
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