mitchnick

Congrats Randy. Bullseye at 96hrs.

Looks like that would be the best we'd due on the Nam thanks to that GL vort pressing down. We need that to move a little faster to get more than 2".

It still has a "storm" instead of the Gfs sunny skies.

Nam's liking next week it seems. Good to know we have the 2 best models in support of our cause. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=ref1km_ptype&rh=2026013112&fh=84&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1 We just need to move that GL low along before it crushes it.

3 as the low for the closest reporting site near me. -8F, if you can believe it, at York Airport. They are known for extreme low temps as they are in a bit of a valley and their thermometer is located in a a low spot very close to a creek bed. https://forecast.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KTHV.html

I was comparing surface maps at 120hrs on 6z Icon and Gfs.

Surface maps of the 6z Gfs and 0z Euro show literally nothing. Lol

It's a great model. Can't wait for everything else to ketchup.

It's been showing up more on modeling than reality since I moved up here unfortunately.

Talk about coming out of nowhere.

It does. But I was wondering where all the cold air went. Lol

3k Nam advertising a last minute fail for eastern NC snow.

Great beach weekend at KD Hills. https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lon=-75.664&lat=36.013

So AI jumps north from 12z with Wednesday threat and the plays the disappearing act with the 4-6" event it had for next weekend. So much for the notion of AI being consistent.

That seems to be an AI thing. I've been noticing that on a number of both AI runs.

Incredible how far south this has been crushed.

Yeah. It was on the Gfs and I posted on it in a response to Stormtracker.

I was looking at snowfall on Pivotal, not that it matters.

No. It's really weak too. Not more than 1" east of the mountains.

Ukie has nothing for us or anyone else for that matter.

On the Gfs? They've got to be excited.

If you use thr slide function for this 5H vort, not only is the weekend storm off the coast with its low height killing us, there's a s/w in Canada heading south making sure it gets crushed to our south. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=z500_vort&runtime=2026013012&fh=6

Height lines are oriented nw/se at 99hrs. Pretty low probability it does.

This weekend's storm is causing such low heights on the Icon that the threat is going to have a hard time climbing north. It needs to get outta there faster. What a way to screw us twice. Assuming it's right.

They may have had 1 week AN, but not the month. Because they are daily, they can jump around with the best of them as we know. The oldest precip forecast at the free Euro site goes back to the 1/7 forecast. Here's the link. More recent forecasts can be found by clicking on the triangle icon to the top, right of the map. The accuracy of the forecasts probably depend on who's looking at the map! Lol https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/extended-anomaly-tp?base_time=202601070000&projection=opencharts_north_america&valid_time=202601190000