mitchnick

No I'm not. You weenie everyone you don't agree with, not just me. There's a disagree emoji if you don't agree.

First of all, Aldie was being tongue in cheek, hence the . If no one can see that and doesn't know Aldie's post, you should stop commenting. Obviously, he was baiting me for a response, so I did just that. Did everybody just join yesterday?

Oh, so models flip flop is your only scientific explanation and you weenie me and everyone else you don't agree with? You offer nothing dude...nothing

Jenkins, explain what is inaccurate about this post that justifies a weenie? Huh. Come on smart azz....explain.

Temps

Their whole cold thesis was based on it being in Canada, obviously our side. Good luck getting it back on our side any time soon, if at all. It can happen, but it's not something you want to rely on if your cold forecast is predicated on it.

Lt snow falling here. Crazy Canadian says 1/2"+ falls. Radar is lit up, but basically another reminder this is a weak sauce season.

We don't need 2 of me around here ya' know.

Latest Srefs fwiw

Sure about that? Because this is what it has headed for us 5-6 days later. Lol

But only in the southern burbs of Oz. Less to the north.

I don't care. They're not my maps. I would use different colors.

I still don't trust WB maps. Here's the temp forecast off the Euro site. Cold is way overdone on WB.

That is the coolest of the forecast weeks off the Euro site, but still apparently in the normal category for temps and precip.

No real argument from me on their accuracy, but that doesn’t change the fact that they keep trending warmer instead of colder as they did earlier in the fall and early winter.

Gefs still suck by the end of the run unfortunately.

Another generally warmer than yesterday run on the weeklies. Hopefully climo temps, which are favored, will do the trick.

Updated Cansips 5H fwiw. This is the link to January and you can go from there. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cansips&region=nhem&pkg=z500a&runtime=2026010100&fh=0 Temps: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cansips&region=us&pkg=T2ma&runtime=2026010100&fh=0 Precip (dry) https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cansips&region=us&pkg=apcpna_month&runtime=2026010100&fh=0 EDIT: Niño! https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cansips&region=global&pkg=ssta_noice&runtime=2026010100&fh=11

End of the 6z Gefs, if correct, looks workable as it may be a bit wetter with marginal temps.

Geps may not be so bad and is probably the coolest of the 3 0z ensembles past the 12th. Gfs/Gefs is a cluster no doubt. As Chuck's pointed out, Eps ain't bad. I short, anything but what the Gfs/Gefs show. But at this point, any of the 3 is possible, or a combination, is possible. Iow, none of them is likely correct. Lol

About 1/2" up here in Hanover. Still light, unaccumulating snow falling.

No worries. 12z Euro has fresh Canadian air headed our way at the end of the run. Lol

Gfs suite has been adamant with bringing the cold back just before the 15th and was not as bullish on the period before/around the 10th as the Euro suite was. Frankly, as screwed up as the Euro suite has performed, I'm more inclined to go with the Gfs as crazy as it sounds. The Geps, at the end of its 0z run, was closer to the Gfs with well BN temps moving through the Midwest our way.

Idk if that trough out in the Atlantic on the far right of the screen is what's causing the SER or vice-versa. I would guess that unless it moves out, however, it will act like a 50-50 low and pump the heights over the east coast.

12z Eps run 500mb anomaly map Cape posted Monday evening on top for 0z 1/9. Last night's run of the Eps only 36 hours later on the bottom. More evidence the reliability of ensembles can match that of operationals.