mitchnick
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Everything posted by mitchnick
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I was wondering the same thing, but since I really don't follow the tropics, I didn't bother to ask. But since you do follow the tropics Larry, what's your guess on the number of points Erin will add to the ACE?
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Interesting change of events on the weeklies for the last week of August starting on the 25th. Top map is from the 8/3 run, middle map is from last Friday, the 8th, and the bottom map is from yesterday. Could be fun if this kind of trend continues thru winter on the weeklies...or suck (for some) if it goes the other way.
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That's why I said "most." It’s never wall to wall cold early in the season or all through a cold winter. Even 1/96 had a heck of a warm spell. But I'm not even suggesting it will be a cold winter or that you need early cool shots for a cold winter. My point was more to suggest we may be able to lower the odds the cr@p, warm winters in light of the early season cool shots.
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You read way too much into my post. I simply stated it won't be classified as an official Niña, not that the consequences would be different with a different classification. As for the 1C° difference comment, a full 1C° does make a difference when you think about it if you compare the consequences of + or - 1C° anomaly to a 0° anomaly. So I think you meant a fraction of a degree Celsius.
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Not that late summer/early fall cold shots are always indicative of an incoming cold winter, I'd bet my retirement that most warm winters lack them. So decreasing the chance of a warm winter is always a step in the right direction at this point of the year imho.
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If right, it'll still go down as an Enso neutral winter since they don't include MEI or RONI...not that they shouldn't start considering them.
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It got better yesterday.
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That's what happens when you stop reading what certain posters post after their preceeding post has nothing to do with the area i.e. heat in the west. P.s. The Climate Changer is from Pittsburgh. He removed his location so he can post all over the board incognito as to location.
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Nice to see this on the latest weeklies. Temps have been dropping for that period over the next few days.
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Who cares? This the the MA forum. There's a western US forum.
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Weeklies have really been cooling down for near future.
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I agreed the tropical activity was likely the cause. But to say with absolute certainty something will happen is what I question. And at what level of tropical activity is the tipping point? And what about the changing patterns? That's my point...it's not black or white.
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I didn't make a forecast like you did. Lol You always speak in absolutes. That's the problem.
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There's no guarantee of that. That's pure wishcasting on your part. There's a whole lot that goes into ssta.
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Yeah, that's what's been missing for a while.
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Sst changes in the western Pacific starting to raise the PDO some again.
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At this point, I'd agree (not that it matters if I didn't lol.) North will be the place to be (as in you!), but my inland location down here should be worth at least a few front enders to mix. My old location just north of BWI was terrible for those type events, with changeovers always occurring ahead of schedule.
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Early shot of BN temps always a good sign imho. Not because it guarantees a decent/cold winter, more because decent/cold winters often have late summer/early fall cool shots.
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Looking at the 30 day change, you may be stuck with cool piss if you don't hurry.
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You can avoid that by being insufferably whiny all the time like me. Beats the unpredictability of sudden mood changes.
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Iow, classic Niña with February the worst month relatively speaking. But you can count on a cool/cold spring.
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The seasonal 3-month forecasts are all that's available on the free site but pay sites have monthly forecasts.
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Every SSTA map is different from the rest. Insane how much they vary and I suspect explains, in part, why long range model solutions vary early on in the forecast period with greater variations later in the forecast periods.
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This is pretty much a broad brush from the Euro seasonal because it's NE US, but these monthly temp anomalies are not bad considering the last 10 years if close to being right.
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