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mitchnick

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Everything posted by mitchnick

  1. mitchnick
    You said it was - in 1998. I posted January-March 1998. That map is December, 1997-February 1998. That's not 1998.
  2. mitchnick
    Was it really? 1998 0.39 -0.11 0.87 https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/norm.nao.monthly.b5001.current.ascii.table
  3. mitchnick
    I should have included this as part of my thinking that this year will be better than 23/24. Compare the 10/23 forecast (top) from the Euro seasonal to the 10/26 forecast. Cfs2 was already painting a well AN winter forecast as of mid October, 2023. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/cfsv2_fcst_history/202310/htmls/usT2me3Mon.html
  4. mitchnick
    Thing is, the end of the Eps run from last night has a trough off the west coast retrograding wnw toward the GOA and the Euro weeklies have been, for at least 4 days in a row (could be longer, but I stopped at 4) putting a trough in the GOA and the SE US where the seasonal put them come mid-late November, subject to slight model to model variations. So we still need to wait as I ended my convo with Chuck, but MR is now lining up with seasonal progs, and that's as good as we can get from this point in time. P.s. It's been discussed some in other forums, but the North Pole ice shield is the largest in 10 or more years. Odd that could happen in this super Niño.
  5. mitchnick
    A low in the mean, so it doesn't guarantee a permanent low.
  6. mitchnick
    NAO will definitely end the month +. By exactly how much and its significance obviously tbd. Hopefully, Chuck's observation that any October +NAO favors the opposite for the winter prevails.
  7. mitchnick
    So you are disregarding last night's Eps that pulls the west coast trough wnw off the coast toward the GOA as well as the last 4 weeklies runs (at least) that has the Aleutian low and trough developing in the SE?
  8. mitchnick
    That's what I told Chuck in the MA forum a bit earlier.
  9. mitchnick
    I know. I get what you're saying. I just don't think this winter will act as hostile to cold/snow as worst case, at least not imby. And I also think the atmosphere is moving slower getting pieces in position thanks to the years of MC forcing and -PDO. That's why I'm more convinced with the formation of the Aleutian low than you. But as I said, time will tell and December will be here before you know it. Once Halloween hits, the holidays just fly by.
  10. mitchnick
    I said my piece. We disagree. Only time will tell. So do you choose pistols or knives? Lol
  11. mitchnick
    BS Chuck. Sorry but neither you nor any other person is better than the model consensus . Do you think they're not using analogs too? The models will have their errors, but the consensus is overwhelming. And don't be narrow-minded . The mean Aleutian Low has not been proged to get started until next month. But before the mean trough is established, you're going to get transient lows in the area, which is what has been happening. And that loop is for 1 run. Go back to older runs of the ensembles and you will see multiple lows showing up.
  12. mitchnick
    Why the F do people keep focusing one 1 year as the reason why every Niño since can't snow? The models screwed up that year...period! P.s. There has been an Aleutian low multiple times within the last few weeks. Obviously, you're not going to establish a mean low there yet this early in any winter season.
  13. mitchnick
    How warm and storm tracks are all that matter to me since it's all about snowfall for me. In fact, BN temps imby do not guarantee snow with last year being a perfect example. I'm more than willing to roll the dice with any kind of Niño.
  14. mitchnick
    It's wrong if it's not your forecsst. Isn't that the way it always works? Lol
  15. mitchnick
    Same here wrt the frost.
  16. mitchnick
    Fwiw, Euro seasonal rainfall from both Copernicus and the Euro site have equatorial precip maxes in Enso 3/3.4 and not in Enso 1.2 DJF. https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/seasonal_system5_standard_rain?area=GLOB&base_time=202610010000&stats=tsum&valid_time=202611010000 https://climate.copernicus.eu/charts/packages/c3s_seasonal/products/c3s_seasonal_spatial_mm_rain_1m?area=area08&base_time=202610010000&type=tsum&valid_time=202611010000
  17. mitchnick
    Webb uses a 24 hr period (forecast Days 14-15 no less) from 10/31-11/1 to establish a forecast for November and December? The pressure to always post something first on the internet must be brutal.
  18. mitchnick
    Well at least you can cozy up to an open window this winter with your favorite book.
  19. mitchnick
    Never heard of this guy. Working his own gig or what?
  20. mitchnick
    I will assume, unless you mention otherwise, the latest Euro forecast. What if the Euro or other models cool in November? Still warmer than the Euro?
  21. mitchnick
    Thanks for narrowing it down. And which model was that and which month's forecast?
  22. mitchnick
    I can't lose. If it's warmer, my nice, dirty carbon rich oil bill won't be so bad this year. If it's not, it'll snow. Of course, you didn't mention exactly where it's going to be warmer than seasonal modeling, nor did you mention which seasonal model. But even a stellar seasonal model forecast will be too cool in spots and too warm, so you really can't lose with that "forecast."
  23. mitchnick
    I never would have guessed. Lol
  24. mitchnick
    Sunshine back Nice rainbow too
  25. mitchnick
    Crushing now, but it's a thin line moving fast, so the western horizon is brightening fast.
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