mitchnick

18z gfs has a potential clipper around day 10. Maybe explosive?

No ensemble snowfall improvement on the Eps unfortunately.

Well, when I saw the top 5H anomaly map at 252hrs, I wasn't expecting it to look like the bottom map at 264hrs. But I won't fight you on the "beggars can't be choosers" point of view.

1/16 looks interesting on the Euro Edit: until it failed

Not so sure I buy temps. Precip....yes. Anything other than AN can be believed.

January forecast sounds about right. Who knows on February.

Realistically, legit "interest" begins mid month.

I'll delete mine. Your colors are prettier.

I'm seeing a slight negative tilt.

HH Gfs came close around the 15th.

Eps snowfall has been too snow crazy for years and I've cursed it many a time. And that's why current runs of 1-2" are so troubling.

2 things. It's not a slam dunk that we'll be in Phase 6, but even if we are, it won't be for the entire month of January. Here's a link to the various models. Bc is an abbreviation of Bias Corrected. https://www.stormsurf.com/page2/links/mjo_phase.html

Truth sux sometimes, especially when it comes to snow chances unfortunately.

I haven't commented on the 0z or 12z runs because there really isn't anything that stands out to get excited over. But there is one thing for certain, and that's that all ensembles are giving us anywhere from barely an inch or 2 snowfall over 15 or 16 days. We're in, or heading into, peak snow climo. Those numbers really are abysmal and there's no 2 ways about it. And it's not only a temp issue. It's just a pattern that, even if cold, just isn't stormy with the only precip coming via cold fronts. Hopefully it changes sooner than later. But I do agree with JI that we should start to see snowfall on the ensembles and on ops IF and when there's a change for the better.

Yep. I stopped watching ACC Basketball soon after the late, great Len Bias met his sad end. The Terps did have some good years with Gary Williams with 1 Championship, but things were different in the stands once Lefty was pushed out, like no more rubber skull caps on opposing fans lol. My friend from high school went to UVA from 76-80 and would come back home during breaks with stories from basketball games and parties. Boy was I jealous. Of course, it was a different world back then and a lot of what he experienced wouldn't fly today.

You're new here then. Best thing to do when you're new is to read more and post less.

Yowzahs Gefs

How I wish that Gfs run would magically come to fruition.

Congrats!

Well, if this generation of AI modeling doesn't work out, I'm sure the next generation, JI modeling, will solve all your problems.

09/10 was simply perfect

Have your neighbors installed an 8 foot fence yet?

That scenario and time frame has been showing up on one model, ensemble, or another for a day and a half or 2 day, so the "threat" looks legit. It would be nice to get multiple model/ensemble support, then hold it. Once at that point, we can get Jeb to start a winning thread.

TT is Celsius and Weather Bell is Fahrenheit, hence minor temp differences are accentuated on WB.

They ruined the ACC vs pre-90's teams. Incredible watching games from the mid-late 70's until early 90's.