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mitchnick

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Everything posted by mitchnick

  1. mitchnick
    2 things. 1, it's definitely learning. And 2, let's everyone quit putting this thing on a pedestal, because it jumps around with the rest of them.
  2. mitchnick
    That's the lean so far with every model that shows a storm. EuroAI is now running, but I wouldn't expect it to pick up on that nuance at this stage...but it could based on our luck I suppose.
  3. mitchnick
    Get ready to be fringed.
  4. mitchnick
    It's the new Dr. No that's living off It's old reputation imho. By the way, Gefs look like cr@p with snowfall, so don't bother looking.
  5. mitchnick
    The "best guess" precipitation is not always accurate, nor the precip type on the maps. I think you probably have a mix with very wet snow dominant which is lousy for accumulations. Jmho
  6. mitchnick
    Yeah, but look at surface temp. That's why accumulations are lousy.
  7. mitchnick
    I'll be shocked if Euro doesn't jump on board with something along the lines of a bomb this run.
  8. mitchnick
    This is Ukie storm qpf.
  9. mitchnick
    Like I said, I can see where this is going, and it's east with the goodies in keeping with Niña tradition.
  10. mitchnick
    More and more fearing I'm fooked again with being too far west. Models are all bombing this baby, but with a tightly wound coastal blizzard.
  11. mitchnick
    Cape will love it.
  12. mitchnick
    Canadian a hit.
  13. mitchnick
    Qpf on GfsAI. Not all is snow, but you can see a similar idea to the regular Gfs, but a bomb for sure.
  14. mitchnick
  15. mitchnick
    GfsAI is a hit with some mix, but turns into a decent bomb. Not perfectly clean, but another tick in the right direction. Not sure how much snow though with lousy TT maps.
  16. mitchnick
    I got temporarily dry slotted, which was frustrating at the time, but the remnants of the deform band finally made it through with acceptable results. That storm was great because of the warm ground, we were able to get out the next day to go shopping at the Sam's club in Severn. Pretty good considering we had 28" officially I think.
  17. mitchnick
    Don't forget 1/16.
  18. mitchnick
    What a cut throat.
  19. mitchnick
    With those snowfall maps, there must be a few really warm members skewing it. I noticed some slp members inland in NC, VA, and in or near MD. They're probably the culprits.
  20. mitchnick
    Lots of Eps members west of mean. EDIT: Lots of 8's and 9's there too!
  21. mitchnick
    Vort is further west this run, which is good. Better ridging north of Montana too.
  22. mitchnick
    Eps improved. Still snowing over us to when it ends at 144hrs. This compared 12z to 18z.
  23. mitchnick
    We don't know if this is just a blip like the 12z Icon or legit, which I know you know. Unfortunately, we're back to biting our fingernails again every 6 hours for the next few days to find out. And then there's the "it's all downhill from here" issue since it can't realistically get better than this run. I wish I loved warm weather damn it.
  24. mitchnick
    If the AI can be right with this threat, I'll gladly call it a winter and welcome it's forecast at 360hrs off this run as well.
  25. mitchnick
    GFSAI is better this run with a mixed bag. Couple more ticks like the one this run vs 12z and we'll be OK I think.
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