mitchnick
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Everything posted by mitchnick
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Icon should be better
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I hate wind. I get the wind peak and short changed on snow. Arghhh
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Why no 15z Srefs snowfall map? Don't mind if I do.
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Eps snowfall and qpf.
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I say we get at least 1" qpf up here despite any model to the contrary. We've overperformed the last 10 days and I say it happens again.
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Psu, don't know if you've checked, but NWS gives you 3-6" thru Sunday night with a blanket forecast of "Snow" for Monday without stating accumulations. It's a close call, but 6-10" is probably a decent guess at this point imho.
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And in classic Gfs form, it fails. Lol Unless east of the Bay.
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GfsAI qpf a little SE from 6z. No snowfall maps on Pivotal.
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Jmho, don't buy the models that are dry in northern MD and PA. Starting with last weekend's storm, I've received almost exactly 2" qpf, including almost 1" from last weekend'sstorm. None of the models had that. At least in these parts, the drought pattern is over with a noticeable regime change thanks to the warming equatorial Pacific.
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And you people scoffed at me when I posted the 9z Rap. Shame on you weenies, shame on you!
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Love this 500mb wind map off Nam
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Nah. Too subtle and I haven't bothered to look. All comes down to exactly where low sits and spins.
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Nam time
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Fwiw, Hrrr looking a lot like Rap
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I know it's the Rap, but the 9z really moved west over the 3z (extended Rap also comes out every 6 hrs but at 3z, 9z, etc.) With the Srefs and Eps, now Rap, moving west from 0z/3z, we can hope for another jump west. p.s. Wennied myself before anyone else does it!
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Didn't see it posted, but 6z Eps improved over 0z.
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Eps snowier than I would have guessed beyond this weekend. Not crazy, but enough to suggest a decent chance or 2 over the next 2 weeks.
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You would think, but apparently not, with few exceptions. Fwiw, Ukie ensembles, which is the best they ever looked.
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We're just not north enough for them to fully develop unless you're east and NE.
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Rap is the last standing bomb for most at this point. This is thru Monday 12z with more to come.
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I'm talking what counts, snowfall in our back yards.
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None of the foreign models have been all in like the Gfs/Nam and other short range US models. Jma isn't that great either and not worth posting.
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I was comparing his 10:1 map to the Kuchera map and responding to his statement to cut 10:1 by 25-33% to get Kuchera.
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With the system pushed west, the norlun got pushed west too.
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York gets more. Northern areas and those under the cc are least affected.
