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mitchnick

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Everything posted by mitchnick

  1. mitchnick
    I still think back to that anafrontal snow in March 2014 where the Nam insisted on a warm layer around same spot as this storm, while other models played it down. Nam was wrong and mby got 7". We'll see.
  2. mitchnick
    Flow right out of the eastern equatorial Pacific. https://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/us_comp/large
  3. mitchnick
    Looking at p-type radars, Euro and Gfs looking spot on with the snow/sleet line along the southern TN border at 7am.
  4. mitchnick
    Pretty good radar here and had sectors for close-up views. It's a small screen on mobile until you turn your phone sideways. https://cyclonicwx.com/radar/us/
  5. mitchnick
    Nice red sky in the northern horizon at sunrise this morning. Nothing beats the red sky the morning of the 1/16 blizzard. I had a crummy phone at the time so the pics don't do it just, plus I was driving so...
  6. mitchnick
    Euro snow depth as of 7am Monday. Mix or not, that's still a lot of snow remaining on the ground after the storm.
  7. mitchnick
    Latest long range Rap 9z
  8. mitchnick
    Something will pop back up. We'll still be in a favorable MJO phase. And then we've got HM on our side.
  9. mitchnick
    Wth went on down there. My brother said his bill has doubled+. New rates or new taxes?
  10. mitchnick
    Never forget, the Euro is usually right when it screws us and wrong when it crushes us.
  11. mitchnick
    Just a reminder that the map is 10:1, so you would think Kuchera would increase it some.
  12. mitchnick
    Actually, I was trying to convey that I didn't have the scientific answer myself with the emoji, but I would certainly think sleet comes in different shapes and sizes to effect accumulations some. But since sleet is generally 3:1, you probably wouldn't notice a big difference between 2.5:1 and 3.5:1.
  13. mitchnick
    Not when you're selling the truth. Here's a link to the 6z GGEM. Also very close to 0z. https://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-prediction/precipitation-accumulation.php?lang=en&map=qc&run=06&mod=cmc_gdps&hi=000&hf=120&type=SN&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&capa_verif=off
  14. mitchnick
    You don't know the answer? Wow
  15. mitchnick
    Rgem lost very little since 0z.
  16. mitchnick
    At 39hrs, the 12k has a 1007 slp in central Mississippi, yet it just punch the sleet line thru mby like a hot knife thru butter some 1000+ miles away. Pretty crummy long wave pattern that we can't keep this storm from turning nasty.
  17. mitchnick
    There's really no coastal. Just one circle of isobars. Warm air advecting from the south must have been shut off, but I don't know how or why.
  18. mitchnick
    Really odd how the sleet makes it just past Hanover at 3pm, but then starts sinking back down the next 2 hours so we're back to snow at 5pm. But, the slp is still in WV gradually moving north. Take a look at it TSSN+.
  19. mitchnick
    I'd take it, and call it a start.
  20. mitchnick
    An inch or little less in general.
  21. mitchnick
    Ukie 18z. It is over at this point.
  22. mitchnick
    Purchase at your own risk.
  23. mitchnick
    Longer range Rap currently updating is colder and wetter. Of course, there's the range issue, but it's better than warmer/dryer.
  24. mitchnick
    That .02" worth of sleet over mby has been on the prior 2 runs, I believe, as well. Consistency is crazy.
  25. mitchnick
    Can't recall the Gfs being this persistent for this long and being horribly wrong. It was equally persistent in 1/16 and did well. Let's hope.
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