mitchnick

Supposedly has better 500mb verification numbers than operational.

Just out on TT https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ec-aifs&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn&runtime=2025011218&fh=186

18z AI still has a storm for next Sunday, just develops a little differently and has precip heavier east. Doesn't look heavy west of I95, but probably a moderate event. Just too tough to figure with any real precision qpf amounts with the freebie maps. It does show a miss of the coast with the 2nd event that hit se va/md hardest, just like 6z and 12z. Better maps out on TT soon.

Decent boost near the end. Gfs/Gefs seem convinced with a significant storm around the 1/27-28.

I'm not SnowGoose, but 18z GEFS did take a step back from 12z with the SER. It's there, but much weaker.

I agree on the continued failed attempts, but I think AN comes around 2/10, just not that much AN.

Euro weeklies do have the SER appearing starting the week of 1/27. https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/extended-anomaly-z500?base_time=202501120000&projection=opencharts_north_america&valid_time=202501200000

Didn't look. Busy cursing out my law school buddy in Salisbury.

Gefs don't support that big eastern/se storm on the operational.

Hopefully! Plus, Euro operational and AI show snow and Ukie has the storm with precip type still in question.

I think the first storm works out, but that 2nd storm wreaks of a miss to my SE. You're in better shape than me though.

.44

Eastern NC gets hit again at 294hrs. Lol

I said plausible, not guaranteed.

The only thing we have going for us is there's time. Time to cry or time to win is the question.