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mitchnick

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Everything posted by mitchnick

  1. mitchnick
  2. mitchnick
    There's more on the EuroAI after next weekend. This is only thru 312hrs.
  3. mitchnick
    We all know they can suck, but being constantly pessimistic sux more, so we stay optimistic.
  4. mitchnick
    Falls over a period >24 hrs, so there's a touch more
  5. mitchnick
    Looks like .6"+ qpf.
  6. mitchnick
    I don't care what tge ensembles are showing, all the operationals and AI's are keeping winter around thru the end of the month temp-wise and even with snowfall.
  7. mitchnick
    But has a similar storm at the end that is moderate had the run gone over 240hrs.
  8. mitchnick
    Geez....ENE doesn't lose on any of the models. Wonder what that's like.
  9. mitchnick
    The fact it has a system and that it stalls like the Icon is VERY encouraging to me.
  10. mitchnick
    GfsAI is a lot of rain as the systems go to our NW.
  11. mitchnick
    Looks like precip around .3"
  12. mitchnick
    Not much
  13. mitchnick
    You mean double-double digits! 20"+
  14. mitchnick
    Yet, 0z had literally nothing, as in no storm in sight.
  15. mitchnick
    Never saw the Icon look that good for any storm. May have been some, but I don't remember them/it.
  16. mitchnick
    I agree. And you would think that's where the AI models would shine having been fed that info, but they don't.
  17. mitchnick
    Not only the AI. Euro had 2 hits in the MA on the 12z run for next weekend and 0z lost both of them. It's just a fact that the models struggle past day 3 and are snow happy. Really takes the "fun" out of this hobby.
  18. mitchnick
    Gfs is on its own with that run. Canadian and Icon look like forecasts for different planets. Problem is all 3 of those models stink, so...?
  19. mitchnick
    Beat me! Nisch for north and west, but too far away to get excited.
  20. mitchnick
    Definitely trended south as Cape stated.
  21. mitchnick
    You can see it here on the 174hrs ensemble slp anomaly map. Scroll to 180hrs, 186hrs and 192hrs. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=eps&region=us&pkg=mslpa&runtime=2026021512&fh=174
  22. mitchnick
    Quite a difference between Gefs/Geps and Eps at the end of their 12z runs. Eps being cool to seasonal w I th temps while Gefs/Geps are warm.
  23. mitchnick
    How many times have we seen this map on either the Euro or EuroAI? Crazy. But they have yet to be correct. And no, I don't consider 1/25 anything close to this map or previous similar ones this year.
  24. mitchnick
    It's not a cold pattern for sure, but the long range ensembles have been rushing warmth in the east for literally months. So a dominating Pac warm pattern is far from a lock imho. Of course, that doesn't mean it's conducive to snow either unfortunately.
  25. mitchnick
    Fwiw, the most recent Bias Corrected Gefs MJO from 2/15 is not as strong with the MJO wave and dumps it back into the COD before the end of February.
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