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mitchnick

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Everything posted by mitchnick

  1. There's more on the EuroAI after next weekend. This is only thru 312hrs.
  2. We all know they can suck, but being constantly pessimistic sux more, so we stay optimistic.
  3. Falls over a period >24 hrs, so there's a touch more
  4. I don't care what tge ensembles are showing, all the operationals and AI's are keeping winter around thru the end of the month temp-wise and even with snowfall.
  5. But has a similar storm at the end that is moderate had the run gone over 240hrs.
  6. Geez....ENE doesn't lose on any of the models. Wonder what that's like.
  7. The fact it has a system and that it stalls like the Icon is VERY encouraging to me.
  8. GfsAI is a lot of rain as the systems go to our NW.
  9. Yet, 0z had literally nothing, as in no storm in sight.
  10. Never saw the Icon look that good for any storm. May have been some, but I don't remember them/it.
  11. I agree. And you would think that's where the AI models would shine having been fed that info, but they don't.
  12. Not only the AI. Euro had 2 hits in the MA on the 12z run for next weekend and 0z lost both of them. It's just a fact that the models struggle past day 3 and are snow happy. Really takes the "fun" out of this hobby.
  13. Gfs is on its own with that run. Canadian and Icon look like forecasts for different planets. Problem is all 3 of those models stink, so...?
  14. Beat me! Nisch for north and west, but too far away to get excited.
  15. You can see it here on the 174hrs ensemble slp anomaly map. Scroll to 180hrs, 186hrs and 192hrs. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=eps&region=us&pkg=mslpa&runtime=2026021512&fh=174
  16. Quite a difference between Gefs/Geps and Eps at the end of their 12z runs. Eps being cool to seasonal w I th temps while Gefs/Geps are warm.
  17. How many times have we seen this map on either the Euro or EuroAI? Crazy. But they have yet to be correct. And no, I don't consider 1/25 anything close to this map or previous similar ones this year.
  18. It's not a cold pattern for sure, but the long range ensembles have been rushing warmth in the east for literally months. So a dominating Pac warm pattern is far from a lock imho. Of course, that doesn't mean it's conducive to snow either unfortunately.
  19. Fwiw, the most recent Bias Corrected Gefs MJO from 2/15 is not as strong with the MJO wave and dumps it back into the COD before the end of February.
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