mitchnick

As you may have noticed over in the Medium Range thread, the Euro weeklies have been getting progressively cooler as the forecast periods approach. Interestingly, while searching for any tidbits for early winter thoughts on YouTube, I found a September forecast from Bam Weather. It looks like I'm not the only one who noticed the changes on the weeklies. According to Bam, both the regular Eps products and Gefs have been too warm lately. Otoh, the EPS AI has been much better. I put the link to the video below and it's got some decent info in addition to the comments on the EPS AI. Take a look if you get a chance. More importantly, the performance of the EPS AI should probably be followed through the Fall to see if it holds any edge come winter.

They are pretty loud up here. Actually, a few years ago (17 year) they basically stayed about 4 miles to our west. This year is actually worse. Their time is short as I'm seeing more and more on the sidewalks.

8 runs in a row now that the Cfs2 is showing a BN September for the MA, SNE, TN Valley, OV, etc. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cfs-mon&region=us&pkg=T2ma&runtime=2025083000&fh=1 Fwiw, Cansips had it on its 8/1 update, but Cfs2 didn't.

Come on back. Maybe that's the problem!

This 30-day change map suggests that a lot of the cooling in the N Atlantic has been in the last 30 days...Irene?

I don't get why these mets bother to post anything when they highlight "*may*" happen. Nothing more than posting for the sake of posting. Moreover, if you look at the AN temps in the Atlantic, most average at or below +1C. If we get the expected +NAO winter, I seriously doubt it'll be SSTA driven. Of course, the original post and my comments all hinge on SSTA remaining stable through the winter, which is doubtful considering it's still August. So we're back to posting for the sake of posting. P.s. I meant to add a lot of that cooling was Irene, so it could be temporary.

Last time since 9/1 is upon us. Coolest yet.

That's pretty much always been the case for us down here to get any snow, especially as you go south of the PA/MD border.

I thought it was posted more because Snowman agrees with his suggestion of an uptick in tropical activity would be no surprise, MJO going into favorable phases and not warmer maritime phases, and the cold coming between Thanksgiving and Christmas.

Some of us oldsters are pretty fast on those wheels!

First of all, I was responding to Michigan's comment that September this year wouldn't be as warm as 9/17, not to precip. That said, Euro weeklies are updated every day as I'm sure you know, so they would include newer information than the monthly comprising info thru the end of July. Here's a link to yesterday's Euro weeklies precip forecast. 1 out of 6 weeks shows the NE BN precip and 5 show normal. So if I was going to be worried, I'm not. https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/extended-anomaly-tp?base_time=202508280000&projection=opencharts_north_america&valid_time=202509080000

Euro weeklies say we won't. https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/extended-anomaly-2t?base_time=202508280000&projection=opencharts_north_america&valid_time=202509080000

Cold the week of 9/1 continues to expand in area and get a bit deeper.

I'm not so sure I'd be looking at solar at this point. True, there's been a big jump in activity the last day or 2, but that's after a big drop. The overall trend is down looking at everything at the link below. Plus, it's too early. If we're rolling ahead hot and heavy come November, imho, then we take a 2nd look at possible curveballs to the forecast. https://solen.info/solar/index.html

The Atlantic looks less likely to support a strong ridge unless things change.

What's really encouraging to me is how temps cool as we get closer to the forecast period. For example, last Tuesday's Euro weeklies' forecast for the week starting 9/1 is on top and yesterday's is on the bottom. This isn't the first time. As I showed earlier in this thread, the week of 8/25 progressively got colder as we got closer.

No. First, the 136 are readings from different locations and elevations than MDT with a period that includes very rural times. My family used to drive from MD to Wilkes-Barre every summer in the mid and late 1960's, driving through Harrisburg to get there, and it looks nothing like it did then. I can only imagine how much more rural it was before the 1960's. Second, my original post said MDT would likely end up slightly AN under the current climate period for June-August, and it will. I wasn't pushing any notions. Finally, using your argument, why not go back further, say hundreds of thousands of years, that clearly show we were much warmer? Current climate number, imho, are a better way to fairly represent above and below normal temps, all things considered, and apparently the NWS has felt the same way long before issues of warming were ever discussed.

Different locations over a 138 year period is far from a fair comparison. It was literally a different old around Harrisburg 20 years+ ago, let alone 138 years. This reminds me of an old friend of mine. When we were in college and I used to go out "carousing" looking for women, he would always remind me that "if a girl doesn't meet your standards, lower them." That’s what you're doing by changing the standards by which to determine temp anomalies. Why don't we go back further then and use ice core samples? We look pretty cool to me based on times further back. But you'll have your reasons I'm sure. I've made my point, so anything further is unnecessary.

MDT's summer records start in 1992. That means, including this year, there are 34 years of summer records. Assuming your calculation is correct, a "top 20th warmth" is just like saying the 14th coolest. So why didn't you say it like that? I think you made my point.

I am using current climate numbers to determine above or below normal just as previous NWS records established above or below normal readings. That's their protocol. If you want to cherry pick by using or considering different periods to push an agenda, that's fine. But don't be shocked or appalled when someone else points out that's what you're doing. Like it or not, the numbers I posted for MDT are what will be used by the NWS.

Right. And those ups and downs during the month create the average. Considering the ridge location this summer to Harrisburg, those numbers are no big deal for June and July and August will negate much of the AN anomalies. I don't know what Phl had since it's not mby.

Dude, I understand numbers. All you can do is doubledown on the agenda. At least you don't deny it.

MDT was -1.6 for August thru yesterday. Should end up decently BN in light of the current pattern.

Not here. And who says I can't go by climate normals? People who push an agenda maybe?

Odd. Harrisburg (MDT) is already -1.6 for August thru yesterday and will end the month much lower. June was only +1.3 and July +2.5. The 3 summer months could easily end averaging barely AN.