mitchnick

Ggem has had it for a while. 0z run had it showing up well west of the mts but then loses it on the next panel east of them. Gfs must have a wave forming on the front for it to show more snow in the east, but I haven't cared enough to look.

Last time of real consequence was in March, 2014 in the magical winter of 13/14. The one in December this winter was meh imby.

I agree on the anafrontal threat, but they're usually low probability. Gunna have to wait until we're within 72 hours of threat to take it seriously imho, assuming it's being advertised as a threat.

The only reason to have hope for more snow is that long range modeling is so bad that it might fail with the warm pattern. And then ask yourself how often does that happen?

That's why I've been rooting for a super Nina. Current long range Enso forecasts from the Cansips and Cfs have the Indian Ocean cooling to near normal on balance thanks to a strong Niña.

In January of 77', I walked out on the frozen Chesapeake Bay near sunset about 100' at Sandy Point State Park, which is on the western shore at the base of the Bay Bridge. Pictures of the frozen bay from back then didn't do it justice because it looked flat. In reality, it was a bunch of large blocks of ice that had congealed into a solid mass. It wasn't easy walking out on it, even as a sprite 18 y/o because of the slippery surface and the tendency for your feet to slip into the crevices where the blocks of ice were joined. Crazy thing was I could have easily gone out a lot further without concern over falling through the ice because it was as solid as a rock. Glad I wasn't drinking at the time. Lol

I have a bad habit of proofreading after I post!

You're right about how certain things are ingrained in our memories. In addition to WRVA, I listed to KDKA in Pittsburgh, KYW in Philadelphia, WBZ in Boston, WCBS in New York, a station in Charlotte that had Accuwx then Greg Fishall (who may still be there), a station in Pocomoke City, MD south of Sby, WGN in Chicago, WFMD out of Frederick, and a small station out of south central PA that I can't remember the call numbers but it was around Gettysburg because they would always advertise Masey Ferguson farm equipment from a dealer in Biglerville. Of course, don't ask me what I had to eat last night because I can't remember. Lol

My father had this huge, portable Zenith radio that could pickup short wave along with am/fm. I used to listen to radio stations from across the country for forecasts. A favorite at the time was WRVA out of Richmond. This guy, Big John Trimble, forecasted a radio show at night starting at either 10 or 11pm for truckers out of a truck stop 2 miles north of Richmond on I95. He would give hourly reports from Dca south thru NC every hour. I knew we were in for it that night because he started to talk about how heavy the snow had become down there and then more reports from western VA of the same thing. The truckers would tell him of first hand conditions. I listened to that religiously for storm info starting in about 1977-1983, including the blizzard of 2/83. Stopped in 1984 because we got cable and had TWC when it was still decent. https://www.countryradioseminar.com/big-john-trimble

Ha. I was just looking at pictures of it when I lived in Glen Burnie, a few miles south of BWI, where 20" fell. I was in my 3rd year of college.

I was leaving Kill Devil Hills, NC the morning of Saturday 8/20/83 as fog was coming off the ocean over the dunes (never saw that before or since.) My friend's car didn't have a/c and we were constantly stuck in traffic. Oh the misery. By the time I got home south of Baltimore, BWI was peaking at 105. Summer of 95? I'll do that again if I can get another winter of 95/96. Ironically, I don't remember the heat from summer of 2010. Lol But I agree this will be a hot one unless Nino remants keep it wet, in which case, we lessen the heat but replace it with a sauna.

Today’s Eps still has the official wind reversal in a day or two, then after a brief recovery, has the winds reversing again around 3/5 and staying under the 0 m/s line thru the end of the run around 4/3! And I thought yesterday's run was crazy.

The 1 wild card out there is that there is a SSW occurring in a few days per attached graph. You can see how the mean 10mb zonal winds represented by the solid blue line dip below the thin gray line. That alone would be throwing a curve ball to modeling, but after a brief, weak recovery, the Eps take the mean winds back below the gray line from about 3/5 until 3/25. That's crazy. Since this is a mean ensemble forecast, the operationals likely don't have it figured into what they are spitting out every 6 or 12 hours. All that said, if course, it doesn't guarantee things like the cold end up on our side of the Pole or that the Pacific side cooperates. But it might explain some wild swings in modeling as well as bouts of cold and snow to come...maybe?

Yep. But as I posted about a month ago in the El Niño thread, sacrificing 1 more winter in an effort to cool the IO and western equatorial Pacific might be worth it for future winters. Of course at my age, looking forward to additional winters could be a grave mistake.

Couldn't you have just lied to me? Lol

Just looked at operational Gfs and it has the renewed warming starting in the 384hr panel, which would be reasonably consistent with Eps. EDIT: Geps has it too.

Have you ever seen an extended period like the one the Eps is showing for March? Can't say I really followed this stuff too much before this year so I have little reference or experience.

Anybody still watching the 10mb for SSW? Today EPS show it happening in a few days, recovering briefly, then switching direction again for an extended period. That's crazy.

My thinking was more to get rid of the warmth in the western Pac ex Japan. Look at the Cansips, for example. It's the only model that goes out to January, 2025 I believe. Look how the equatorial waters around and north of Australia, including the IO, have cooled vs now. Heck, even the Atlantic basin isn't that unusually warm on the whole. I certainly can't know if the Cansips is correct, but I think it's at least a start of a way out or enough cooling to make a difference.

Ha. If you're a snow weenie in the MA and were around to experience 3/73, there's no month any duller than that one. Lol

They have been doing well ever since 20/21. I don't think their climo is much more than mine, but they really have done well relatively speaking the last 4 winters.

Yep. I've got some flurries flying now.

I'll say this, despite the low total, it sure is a beautiful winter morning.

Looks like maybe 2". Yawner. And like everyone else, sidewalks and roads are clear.

You constantly say nasty shit to him and you know full well history. He is respectful with his posts and you are not. PERIOD!