mitchnick

You can see it here on the 174hrs ensemble slp anomaly map. Scroll to 180hrs, 186hrs and 192hrs. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=eps&region=us&pkg=mslpa&runtime=2026021512&fh=174

Quite a difference between Gefs/Geps and Eps at the end of their 12z runs. Eps being cool to seasonal w I th temps while Gefs/Geps are warm.

How many times have we seen this map on either the Euro or EuroAI? Crazy. But they have yet to be correct. And no, I don't consider 1/25 anything close to this map or previous similar ones this year.

It's not a cold pattern for sure, but the long range ensembles have been rushing warmth in the east for literally months. So a dominating Pac warm pattern is far from a lock imho. Of course, that doesn't mean it's conducive to snow either unfortunately.

Fwiw, the most recent Bias Corrected Gefs MJO from 2/15 is not as strong with the MJO wave and dumps it back into the COD before the end of February.

You're using Gefs and I'm using Eps. But looking at the 0z Gefs, temps are very similar to Eps. But I just noticed your map above is 378hrs vs 354hrs I used. The Eps only go out 360hrs while Gefs go out to 384hrs. I started with the 354hrs map because you originally posted the first 7 days in March would be in the 50's.

Barely per attached, but the 348hrs and 360hrs are both slightly below per Pivotal.

Average high temp for 3/2 (360 hrs on EPS) at BWI is 51.5 and 3/9 is 57.4. So 50's would be average. Fyi, Eps has 1pm temps on 3/1 (354hrs) in mid 40's.

Because this board/thread is for upcoming threats per title and there is a separate forum for it. So just like we don't go into the climate change forum to discuss storm threats in the coming weeks, we don't come into this forum to argue over climate change issues. Plus, it inevitably leads to unnecessary arguments.

Euro has been all over the place over the last week. It's terrible too.

Need clouds to start arriving by 5:50-6am tomorrow.

Snow-cover should aid in surface temps. Not by much but anything will help.

It's a step in the right direction, which seems to be the case on all modeling so far today. Some have made substantial changes with others only minor, but they all seem to be in the right direction. If we keep going ghru the day and night, we may just have to get WxUSAF to crawl out of bed and change the thread title to PDIII! lol

I didn't pay attention to the Ukie's last 2 runs, but you can see how it really beefed up qpf to our south and southeast with the 6z run vs 0z.

I was just gunna post that, but the Rgem did bump qpf north by 20 miles or so fwiw, so I took that as a +.

It's near perfect with warm air, that's for sure.

We pray with childlike faith.

Anything that screws PSU up to Hanover is the most likely this year.

12k has similar totals in the same locations.

It has the highest elevations zeroed in for sure.

We know how the Nams nailed thermals for 1/25, maybe they're right this time. P.s. I know there's more to it than thermals (e.g. storm intensity, etc.) , but you should still get my point.

How I wish the Nam and Gfs would shove it right up the USB port of the Euro on this one.

Wow!!!!

Seems like it's been 10 years since we had outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) in the right spot just east of the Dateline. We'll, fwiw, the Euro weeklies say just that. I'd prefer it a touch further east, but this darn close to perfect if memory serves. It should last through the end of the month. Maybe there's a little hope for a score with this, or so I hope. With the burgeoning Niño, maybe we can see this next winter as a fixture? Here's a link to an explanation if you're interested. https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/mofc_multi_mjo_family_time_longitudes?base_time=202602100000&filter=no&parameter=olr