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mitchnick

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Everything posted by mitchnick

  1. mitchnick
    Link for everything on Euro seasonal https://charts.ecmwf.int/?facets={"Product type"%3A["Experimental%3A AIFS"]%2C"Parameters"%3A[]%2C"Type"%3A[]%2C"Range"%3A["Seasonal"]}
  2. mitchnick
    Precip DJF & JFM
  3. mitchnick
    850 DJF & JFM
  4. mitchnick
    H5 DJF & JFM
  5. mitchnick
    Updated Euro a touch warmer this run. DJF and JFM T2.
  6. mitchnick
    You should post that over in the main Enso thread. You're sure to make lots of friends.
  7. mitchnick
    So that is your best, name calling....ok
  8. mitchnick
    I have children and grandchildren. Still don't worry about it. Like I said, too many other things imho that are going to "get us." lol
  9. mitchnick
    Name caller classic.
  10. mitchnick
    I neither care nor worry about it. Plenty of other more important things in this world imho.
  11. mitchnick
    I don't deny earth's warming. I just don't believe it's the end of the world or unusual.
  12. mitchnick
    Waxing and waxing of earth's temps. Nbd
  13. mitchnick
    Fortunately, for those interested in the winter, it covers the smallest area and sits south of the equator but for the northern border bounded by it. Hence, at this point, whether it exceeds current max records or not, it won't have much to say for winter in the east compared to the other areas. So yeah, let's get the record this year.
  14. mitchnick
    Great news
  15. mitchnick
    And there's something wrong with that?
  16. mitchnick
    Before I got the place here in fall 2019, it did pretty well with Niñas and always substantially better than BWI. Showmethesnow used to routinely humiliate BWI totals. But that changed after I moved here except for 20/21.
  17. mitchnick
    I haven't had an AN snowfall season since 20/21. I'm needing this one bad.
  18. mitchnick
    The Cansips released 9/1/26 was snowy fwiw.
  19. mitchnick
    Or maybe just August 2026
  20. mitchnick
    If you're referring to the Eps, I agree. Except you can see a dip in the height lines in the GOA not too far from the one on the Geps. Suggesting maybe it might be showing some blue in the GOA in future runs....OK, look real hard then! Lol
  21. mitchnick
    Average for last 5 days ending 384 hours off the 0z Geps fwiw.
  22. mitchnick
    Got a touch over .6" in the last 40 minutes with more rain to come. I guess an inch is possible based on radar, but that may be stretching it.
  23. mitchnick
    Well, by the shadings, it hasn't in the past been nailing any areas. But has been doing better in some areas over others. For example, last year it did well in parts of the MW, NE, and MA while missing out west. Plus, the bottom map is an average over the last 30 years from what I'm seeing; probably the top one too. I wonder how accuracy would change if only looking back the last 5 years when there are obviously improvements with modeling. I don't know about you, but there is an obvious concerted effort by the CC monetaryists, if I may call them that, to poo-poo any seasonal forecast that isn't a wall-to-wall Conus toaster oven. And I would put Jonathan Wall into that category based on the 100+ posts he's made that have shown up on this Board. Nobody knows with certainty how this winter will play out other than odds definitely favor AN in many areas of the Conus. But efforts to contradict/attack seasonal modeling are always a red flag to me.
  24. mitchnick
    SE yes. But it does climo or better in other areas.
  25. mitchnick
    I wonder if the Cfs2 winter 23/24 temp forecast from 9/11/23 was discounted? I guarantee you it was...but it would have been by me! Lol https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/cfsv2_fcst_history/202309/htmls/usT2me3Mon.html They're not always climo come September. Cfs2 was actually on the right path come early September, 2023.
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