mitchnick

Next weekend is the classic end of pattern threat. Coincidentally, PD1 was and the pattern not only ended, but winter itself after it. Gimme another PD1, and I can deal with winter ending knowing we have a Niño next year.

Snowing lightly hate with a nice band. Heavy returns headed my way too it seems.

It's really good. Never hiked there. In college, many, many years ago, it was Cunningham locally and Shenandoah/Big Meadows area on weekend trips. Always wanted to hike Old Rag, but never got around to it.

It brings some reality to those who act as if, if not expect, the world is going to end. Just ridges and troughs waxing and waning this year on the Conus.

Who cares when there's this too. https://x.com/JustinWeather/status/2018864755256250868?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed|twterm^2018864755256250868|twgr^afdbcb3bf1f7882daea6c56237bcb5b4801b0525|twcon^s1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.americanwx.com%2Fbb%2Findex.php%3Fapp%3Dcoremodule%3Dsystemcontroller%3Dembedurl%3Dhttps%3A%2F%2Ftwitter.com%2Fi%2Fstatus%2F2018864755256250868

When my wife and I want to take a trip up to the mountains, we go through there on Rt.234. Very nice drive and not far from mby. Have fun. By the way, if you're interested in decent Mexican food, stop off at Montezumas Restaurant on PA Rt. 30 on the west side of Gettysburg. We love it. You can get back to Baltimore via Rt. 30 from Michaux too.

Those arctic fronts are definitely a fluff event, so Kuchera much more accurate imho.

Never in my life was there so much snow on a SE wind that February and March. Storms that usually changed to a mix or snow either held on to all snow or mixed late enough not to reduce totals that much.

AiGfs just went all rain with all medium and long range storms fwiw.

Can't tell if it's all snow, but EuroAI Eps looks threatening the weekend of the 14th.

Gimme the EUROAI

I saw that yesterday on the Euro site weeklies page and was wondering why no one had mentioned it. I've taken enough shade this winter, so I figured somebody would bring it up. Lol

Starting to think maybe the advertised warmup will be muted like all the previous ones have been. Could be wrong, of course, but who cares if I am.

Random snowflakes falling from my cloudy skies.

As long as it's stops snowing in southern VA & NC at our expense, I'm in. Sorry Chill...you can suck my cirrus!

I've given up on anything reminding me of the gfs.

Sure as hell worked this year. Lol Nothing's perfect, that's a fact, but when it comes to being the seasonal bullseye for snow, being the one for the first 1 or 2 events puts you in the "likely" category for the season imho. 2015 was an exception. A very good one at that, but an exception nonetheless imho.

2 week ensemble forecasts are as reliable and certain as 2 day Nam forecasts.

I'll say it till I turn blue, you want to be in the bullseye the first decent event(s) because it often tells you where anomalous snowfall will be for the season. Sure enough, the places that got hit several times in December keep on stacking it up.

JI ain't going anywhere.

Look at the flow. Canadian air is cutoff. We "might" be a bit BN in temps post frontal passage, but in mid-Feb that's cutting it real close in these parts. Hopefully, the Gefs is right. I don't have much hope in that but that's a better outcome than those maps imho. Moreover, the only precip of consequence on the Eps is a frontal passage around 306 hrs. You can see that on this link if you run it through the entire 12z run. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=eps&region=us&pkg=apcpn24&runtime=2026020112&fh=24 This is why I effin' hate counting on long range ensembles as I worried in a post this morning. Among other things, they can change in a couple runs just like operational models and are only good until the next run.

Looks like Heisy's concern yesterday about the ridge bridge have merit looking at the Eps and Geps post day 10. Gefs are better if that's any consolation.

https://www.outerbanksvoice.com/live-traffic-cams/

You've been away from Minnesota too long!