mitchnick
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Everything posted by mitchnick
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Nam want to drop 1-1.5" on me with the ull. Lol
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My wag is 2/28-3/10. Nothing before of consequence and nothing after, if at all, with south and east of us favored.
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We would need a fluke in every sense of the word. No one can say for certain, but I just don't see US getting a fluke snow. If any place it would be DC, BWI, SBY, or RIC in all likelihood based on the pattern.
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Nice choice. I made my OBX vacation today so I have summer on my mind. I'm really, really ready to move on from consecutive winter failure number 4.
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Today’s weeklies are not screaming cold if they are correct and suggest that the cold on the Eps will be short lived. https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/extended-anomaly-2t?base_time=202502180000&projection=opencharts_north_america&valid_time=202503030000
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I'm pretty ticked how cold Eps and Gefs are in the LR. Nothing will change snow-wise. I feel pretty sure about it. Just another cold Nina spring with nothing to show for it.
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You're just going to have to trust me on it.
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I can.
.thumb.png.e1cb2d3f7fb2b632e7deb4e1a56b9163.png)
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End of run. Always the most accurate.
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Idk how well the AI does with identifying threats in the Long range compared to the ensembles, but once a threat is within 7 days, the AI can't be ignored regardless of operationals and ensembles to the contrary imho.
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You mean VA/NC Blizzard. At least amounts qualify for one.
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Correct
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Anybody look at the long range Gfs? Another NC/VA Blizzard. Lol
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I don't know how you found that website that makes those cute little cards, but I wish you hadn't.
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It was 1 run last week with 2' totals.
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In hope of keeping hopes completely unrealistic, the 6z AI did jump north some too from 0z.
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How about 100 instead.
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You could see this run coming all the way back to hr. 27.
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Nam has confluence this 12z run at 27hrs almost exactly as 12z yesterday fwiw.
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This is the scale in mm.
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6z AI
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A touch south at 36hrs, but not much.
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At 30hrs, it sure looks a lot like the 18z run.
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Unfortunately for you, the term "going down" is not the going down you envision.
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It's high resolution so you can look closely at its errors.
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