mitchnick
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Everything posted by mitchnick
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I think everyone realizes that model forecasts beyond 48-72 hours are not to be taken as gospel. Otoh and maybe unfortunately, they are correct beyond 72 hours in rare circumstances and when we see the kind of snowfall many runs they were showing this week, weenies naturally want them to be correct this time. As such, as long as models generate forecast past 48 or 78 hours, I don't think anything will change.
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Have you always been whipped? Lol
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Well, like I said, it's different in a big way because it does get snows in the Metros and suburbs. But it's similar in the sense that the heaviest is in an arc around us to the south, se, and east.
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It does. It appears to be an extended period of at least light snow for many in the forum and mod/heavy on the Eastern shore and se.
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I hate to say it, but as depicted, it sorta reminds me of Boxing Day, but without a total skunk to the central portion of the forum including Metros and suburbs. You'll see what I mean when you see it on TT or Pivotal.
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6z AI is turning it into a hybrid Miller B of sorts. It does give snow to the forum with the most east. Eastern shore does best, of course, but it's hard to figure qpf west of the Bay on the Euro site. The 0z gave mby .2" and south of Baltimore .5" with more south and east. This run looks to do a little better, but you'll need to wait for TT to get more exact qpf. Unfortunately, it hooks the meat of the storm around the MA and is now hitting ENE.
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Responding to a post in the MA I said: I'm sure you haven't looked at the 6z Nam very closely, but it simply parks the tpv over the Dakotas and appears to be all southern stream. Maybe that's a victory as well, to keep the tpv more or less stationary and let the southern vort pivot counterclockwise around it. Of course, the kicker might just wreck that option in future runs.
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I'm sure you haven't looked at the 6z Nam very closely, but it simply parks the tpv over the Dakotas and appears to be all southern stream. Maybe that's a victory as well, to keep the tpv more or less stationary and let the southern vort pivot counterclockwise around it. Of course, the kicker might just wreck that option in future runs.
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It's become entertaining how every model is jumping around like I have honestly not seen. Sorry to see the 6z Euro drop east some but Eps had a bigger jump se. It would be nice if the Nam with one of its classic NW jumps was correct. In the end, this strikes me as the first big storm of the season when Sby got around a foot and I got 3".
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I've napped several times tonight. I need to fall back to sleep though. Lol
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I don't know if that's supposed to be directed to me, but I haven't given up on next week. I never said that, which is why I was clear to say "after next week" our time is short. But what's it matter what the opinions of others are? They have no control over the weather.
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AI a little better. Just needs to come west 75-100 miles. The graphics on the Euro site are not good enough to post, but when it comes out on TT or other commercial site, you'll see what I'm saying. It's probably close upstairs.
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I hate destructive wx like wind. Ughh
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Short of a turnaround never seen, Gfs beats the Euro too.
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Gfs and Canadian are next to nothing literally.
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I said after next week because all the ensembles have Pacific warm moving eastward across the country by 3/1 and it's warm. That leaves less than a week between the end of next week and 3/1. But I did keep the door open for a fluke.
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With the Euro, it's just too amped. Been like that ever since that failed upgrade in 2018 imho.
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Operationals are just heading toward their ensemble means.
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Gun to head, after next week I think my snow threats are toast. Nothing short of a fluke that's not on any model is all there is imby.
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The truly wild swings is what is so laughable.
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Lost the Icon. Little or no snow in PA.
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I remember it because my car got stuck 2 blocks from my house and these 3 guys came out of nowhere and pushed me out of the 10-12" of snow in the road between the storm a few days before and that storm.
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Another miss on the AI. Here's how it does it. Basically the tpv becomes a wrecking ball and just drops in too fast and is big. Scroll forward from this spot. It's the only 500mb map worth anything from the AI. https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/aifs_medium-z500-t850?base_time=202502151800&projection=opencharts_north_america&valid_time=202502191800
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World peace? You saw too many reruns of Groundhog Day, Groundhog Day, Gro...
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I think we need the bleeding to stop by getting 2 or 3 runs to hold steady, then hope the north trend begins to put the forum back where we were yesterday and Thursday with the primo runs.
