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mitchnick

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Everything posted by mitchnick

  1. mitchnick
    12z Eps run 500mb anomaly map Cape posted Monday evening on top for 0z 1/9. Last night's run of the Eps only 36 hours later on the bottom. More evidence the reliability of ensembles can match that of operationals.
  2. mitchnick
    I know. Hence "fantasy" snow.
  3. mitchnick
    GfsAI has another light to moderate fantasy snow near the end of the run.
  4. mitchnick
    They'll build back up...giving time for the SE Ridge to reform of course.
  5. mitchnick
    It will never end thanks to the SE Ridge. And we're up to almost January 15th.
  6. mitchnick
    Good luck. Other than a couple of quick pinches with the needles, you'll feel nothing. I say this confidently having had it done a few times and coming from a family of dentists.
  7. mitchnick
    Almost, but not yet. But that will come if we fail with snow. Trust me.
  8. mitchnick
    Got me pegged! Lol I'm just getting old and crusty.
  9. mitchnick
    I'm just tired of getting psyched for something good, only to turn out bad when, in retrospect, I could have seen it coming with a deeper dive. This effin' Niña is killing snow chances. And even if it does snow, they're weak, dry sauce. And the worse part is, we're stuck with it this winter.
  10. mitchnick
    You're missing my point. As we get closer to the week(s) after 1/12, can we expect them to get warmer too? And why shouldn't we since the models were too warm since 12/1, being wrong going the other way is a death blow to prime winter. Again, I can't say what will happen, but I can say model performance this year gives me no confidence in any forecast past 5-7 days.
  11. mitchnick
    Just to put a point on what I'm saying, look at the last 3 days from the weeklies for temps during the week of 1/5-1/12. Sunday's is on top, then yesterday, and today. So we get warmer as we approach the forecast period? That's no way to run a winter if you want snow. Not saying it's over or it won't happen ultimately, but I am saying my confidence in the models is essentially gone.
  12. mitchnick
    With every operational model run, I'm doubting more and more the great pattern. The trough always ends up across the Pac NW, leading to a ridge somewhere in the east. Getting close to pulling the plug. The models were way too warm in December. Now when they're cold we should believe them as being correct?
  13. mitchnick
    I think you just wasted a perfectly good ALEET for nothing.
  14. mitchnick
    Nah....alcohol
  15. mitchnick
    Yikes at the cold at the end of the Gfs run.
  16. mitchnick
    Oh yeah...great start too! https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/extended-anomaly-2t?base_time=202512300000&projection=opencharts_north_america&valid_time=202601120000
  17. mitchnick
    I doubt the cold pool is a problem. It's not not expansive and not very cold while surrounded by AN water temps. The -PNA otoh is. These runs make me think that SE ridge is real. Of course, it can change in 6 or 12 hours, which is a true testament of the accuracy of these so-called "predictive" models. Times like now when I wish we only had 936-1212! Lol
  18. mitchnick
    It had a pressing cold that never made it south. In any event, Gfs and Gem runs are crap assuming Gfs snow around 190hrs is fantasy
  19. mitchnick
    SE ridge. I was walking when I typed. Lol
  20. mitchnick
    12z Gfs and Gem both like the SECfor day 10 threat. Lol Impressive threat afterwards on Gfs fwiw.
  21. mitchnick
    Seems like a lot of mets feel that way, but down here anything short of near model and ensemble consensus ends up a fail or disappointment.
  22. mitchnick
    Whether you like Bamwx or not, he has some great explanations for coming pattern, and should watch.
  23. mitchnick
    BAM WX says walk away from the cliff.
  24. mitchnick
    Speaking of changing ensembles, Gefs' 6z run just took a pretty big jump toward the Eps. End of 0z on top and 6z on bottom. Lol
  25. mitchnick
    I should have added that with the SE ridge on the 6z Gfs, it offered a great overrunning threat at the end of the run. Too bad it won't be right.
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