mitchnick

Absolutely. And wrt the 850's, the 6z now has that classic drainage down the eastern side of the Apps that was missing at 0z.

Heisey! Don't be a stranger and be sure to let us know HM's thoughts as we get closer.

Actually, I mentioned that last night. No way I'll let a classic weenie stand-by be forgotten. BUT, there some truth to that on occasion.

6z Gfs total run....lol

6z Gfs storm for 12/2-3 at top, total 6z run below.

I honestly thought it, but I didn't want to mention it and sound so professional.

Both Gfs and Ukie have it as a Miller A.

Killjoy

Over in the MA forum. Sometimes I get lost...

A thing of beauty upstairs too.

Gefs look as good as can be expected at this point imho with the threat.

I'm too old to get this excited!

Dr. No sucked last year with way too many false Yeses, so screw it.

What kind? Good or bad...

Pivotal is very close to those maps too.

Trailing upper level low is the signature of a great storm too.

Gfs has been hitting hard on this 12/3 threat for days. That's often the sign of legit threats.

Looks classic for some

We're good.

Gotta love Gfs temp anomalies after the snow and sleet fest.

Where the hell is Bliz? 0z Gfs is a dream for most here.

Gfs colder with the 12/3 threat than 18z. Gotta watch this one. A bit convoluted, but there's a cold High up north doing some dirty work.

Negative? Not considering the Eps AI I posted and the 18z Gefs. The weeklies change so much and have been too warm this fall. The weeklies have such low skill because modeling skill at their range is poor, I honestly no longer put any stock in them. If other people wish to, that's up to them. If you noticed, even Don Sutherland includes more hedges on his analysis than an English garden. But like I said in my post, I think discussing modeling that has such poor skill is just the source of unnecessary angst. I'm not suggesting it should be stopped, it's just useless imho.

The weeklies change every day! In 3 days they will be different and it will be a new concern. The fact is, the modeling just can't do what we want and hope for it to do. As I get older, it's clear that long range modeling must be viewed with an eye on seasonal trends, both in the actual weather and the model errors/biases. IOW, how have the models been doing with medium and long range forecasts of late and what is the general tenor of the weather. This year, modeling has general been too warm at longer ranges and it frankly hasn't been a toaster oven for the past few months. All this considered, advertised medium/long range warmups should be viewed skeptically until they start to prevail. Until then, don't worry about it at all. And on a related note, it maybe fine to dissect every medium and long range model run because it's what we do. But until the mr/lr modeling can prove they are worth anything by being accurate and do so with day-to-day consistency, they cause more useless angst than they're worth imho and making forecasts off them with any certainty as I see being made are folly. Enjoy the cold Thanksgiving holiday weekend (another sign of the coming winter flavor) and forget about December's weather until December! Rant over.