Jump to content

mitchnick

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    28,706

  • Joined

 Content Type 

Everything posted by mitchnick

  1. mitchnick
    Daily Cfs2 plume charts are updated daily and hyperlinked to this site; past half way down. https://www.stormsurf.com/page2/links/ensocurr.html
  2. mitchnick
    That's what the Cfs2 was showing over 3 months ago when I posted. I was just the messenger. Obviously, Cfs2 forecast, updated multiple times a day, changed.
  3. mitchnick
    He's not talking about right now, but that it will trend more basin wide as supported by subsurface and is depicted on seasonal models. Models apparently seeing westerly anomalies weakening during the fall allowing trades to move the warmth in the esst back west.
  4. mitchnick
    Last year was okay up top. My thought was because the sun was so active it acted more like a peaking solar cycle even being technically past the peak as on the way up is generallybetter than down. Maybe it's already been mentioned by another(s) on or off this Board idk. Just a hunch. If correct, an active sun might give a better result....just a weenie WAG!
  5. mitchnick
    I swear, every time I see you posting Jeff Berardelli, because of that cartoon pic, the same initials and similar name structure, I think you're posting JB (Bastardi). Lol Am I the only one?
  6. mitchnick
    5 day average https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=eps&region=us&pkg=z500aMean&runtime=2026071400&fh=264
  7. mitchnick
    Eps says it's coming to a N. Hemisphere near you. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=eps&region=us&pkg=z500a&runtime=2026071400&fh=210
  8. mitchnick
    Knock yourself out! Lol https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/cfsv2_fcst_history/
  9. mitchnick
    Well, that slow change may just be as a result of the fast warming. Give it some time before dropping the lifeboats.lifeboat. Edit: Iow, the atmosphere just may need time to catch up to a Niño that has warmed as fast as this one.
  10. mitchnick
    I agree, but there are signs of troughiness forming in the east and ridging out west on the 12z Eps. You can see it happening if you put this link in motion. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=eps&region=namer&pkg=z500a&runtime=2026071212&fh=0
  11. mitchnick
    Irrelevant then. Wrong forum anyway.
  12. mitchnick
    Except the United States just celebrated 250 years and your graph only goes back to 1900, soooo....
  13. mitchnick
    There's time for the PDO to cooperate. Once the Niño conditions in the N. Hemisphere get truly established, as in October, we might see a flip to at least neutral imho.
  14. mitchnick
    1.2" from last night's thunderstorm line. Dark green weeds surrounding patches of brown grass. Summer in the MA.
  15. mitchnick
    Take a hike, punk!
  16. mitchnick
    There was also a surprise snow in December that dropped 4-8" across the area. Without checking LWX records, I think BWI was around 6".
  17. mitchnick
    4" of snow at BWI between Noon and 1pm with constant thunder and lightning in the February blizzard. And I was out in with my brother pushing my uncle's van down the road so he could get home 5 miles away. Idk how he made it, but he did. Yeah, I remember it vividly!
  18. mitchnick
    82/83 was east based or leaning per SSTA (some sites have maps that illistrate it better, but I don'thave any off hand), so no need to give up yet. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst9120.for
  19. mitchnick
    If I do, I'll let the good Lord he can take me now. Lol
  20. mitchnick
    Just not too strong of a block...PLEASE!!!
  21. mitchnick
    I actually made a post over in the El Niño thread about the Cfs2 looking interesting at 10mb this winter, but I took it down figuring the usual suspects might accuse me of being a weenie...imagine that, me being accused as being a weenie? Lol Anyway, here was the 1/27 link I had posted. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cfs-mon&region=nhem&pkg=Tz10&runtime=2026070800&fh=6
  22. mitchnick
    Yes, but the real chances, if they come, would likely be in the 1/15-3/15 period. Barring a miracle, December will likely disappoint if you're looking for snow outside of the higher elevations imho.
  23. mitchnick
    Which, according to Usetobe (retired met from LWX), is exactly where we want it (just east of the DL) come winter. Can the mean forcing hold there come winter is, course, the question. We'll see.
  24. mitchnick
    That's because going east would put them over Stephens City, VA!!
  25. mitchnick
    Updated July NMME holds June forecast in the east except for slightly warmer in NNE and cooler in the SE for December-February. Precip AN in the east again with an increased shield and rate over June forecast. Monthly temp forecast beginning December. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=nmme&region=us&pkg=T2ma_nmme&runtime=2026070800&fh=5
×
×
  • Create New...