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mitchnick

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Everything posted by mitchnick

  1. mitchnick
    Climo is always a viable option forecast at 4-5 days. It may be right, but it may be wrong. It's too early on this one. I will say that I'd love to see this a hit along the lines of the Euro 12z because I'm a firm believer that the first threat event gives a strong hint at the winter's seasonal pattern.
  2. mitchnick
    Typical for 4 days out.
  3. mitchnick
    18z Euro went weak pos, but further south a touch.
  4. mitchnick
    Looks like my days posting in this forum will be over if that comes close to verifying.
  5. mitchnick
    Kuchera for better or worse.
  6. mitchnick
    A weak p.o.s. is on the table imho. Without a stronger higher, the cold air will give up on the fight easier and we'll lose lift. So I'm not feeling locked in on any scenario at this point.
  7. mitchnick
    Personally feel that'll be the trend in keeping with the season. How far, who knows. Still think we're all in the game, but odds do favor N & W like 80-90% of all snow chances around here.
  8. mitchnick
    Icon isn't great, but it has creeped further south making it a lot closer than 0z and 6z.
  9. mitchnick
    We'll take anything we can get.
  10. mitchnick
    Euro is a N&W event similar to map above.
  11. mitchnick
  12. mitchnick
    Ukie is a light event, but I didn't bother to look how it got there.
  13. mitchnick
    I saw that, but there's always one that clings on to a fantasy. That said, still time to salvage something, but we better start seeing hints of our salvation sooner than later.
  14. mitchnick
    Never fails that the models show a decent event upcoming, they invariably advertise additional events down the road. Then when the first threat fizzles, all the rest of the threats go with it. Tonight's Gfs is a perfect example, at least thru 240hrs.
  15. mitchnick
    Hard to argue against the warmer forecasts with that retreating High and resulting se'ly return flow.
  16. mitchnick
    That's what we've seen this summer and fall. I'd run with it until proven wrong.
  17. mitchnick
    Shut up and embrace the technology!
  18. mitchnick
    Being chased out of town again are you?
  19. mitchnick
    It was just a poor model living off an old reputation it lost multiple "upgrades" ago.
  20. mitchnick
    I'd rather the Euro be weak at this point instead of a bomb it advertised all last year to no avail.
  21. mitchnick
    6z Euro had the change back to snow too fwiw.
  22. mitchnick
    Well, if anybody would know...
  23. mitchnick
    12z Icon went bad on us. Nothing. Big shift north.
  24. mitchnick
    You guys made me look at the Gem. Dang, that's a dream.
  25. mitchnick
    I know, it's odd that the operational would have to clearly be a huge outlier. Hasn't it learned anything?
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