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mitchnick

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Everything posted by mitchnick

  1. mitchnick
    You shouldn't be trying to wiggle at your age anyway! (Hi Kettle!!!)
  2. mitchnick
    Yep. I said as much in the MA forum the other day. I know how it rolls down here.
  3. mitchnick
    I agree about the HR hitter coming to bat, but I don't think we can rule out other light or moderate chances with the advertised precip anomalies on all modeling.
  4. mitchnick
    In January, 1979, several of us hiked up to Chimney Rock. I remember I brought a thermometer with me. It was 21 at the top. I specifically recall lamenting while up there about the lack of snow that winter despite the cold. Little did I know that a week or so later we would have 3 snowstorms in a row starting the end of January and culminating with PDI. Oh the memories of a weenie.
  5. mitchnick
    That map I posted was the run-to-run change between September and October Euro seasonal. The actual snowfall anomaly map is above and that shows AN in that location.
  6. mitchnick
    Looks like it's redeveloping to off the coast.
  7. mitchnick
    That makes JI late to the party.
  8. mitchnick
    I thought the "theory" was the rate of change thru the entire month of October.
  9. mitchnick
    Apparently you did.
  10. mitchnick
    This isn't the total snowfall map, but it is the change in snowfall in the October Euro seasonal vs September's run.
  11. mitchnick
    In light of the Euro seasonal snowfall map with the change from last month, higher the better
  12. mitchnick
    Thanks. But it's actually the change from October's run from September's. Going in the right direction for many.
  13. mitchnick
    Euro seasonal latest snowfall change this run vs last courtesy Weather Will in the MA forum. No complaints from me!
  14. mitchnick
    Nope. Retired. No longer have an active law license.
  15. mitchnick
    I don't understand how anyone who owns a home wants severe, damaging weather in their backyard. Leaving the personal injuries/death traumas aside, good luck dealing with your insurance company in getting your house repaired in a timely fashion competently by contractors willing to accept typical insurance rates. And life in a hotel for weeks on end, let alone months, is a disaster on its own. No, gimme winter weather and boredom for the other 8-9 months.
  16. mitchnick
    I've mentioned it before. The Cfs2 has literally had it for almost 2 months as the strongest WWB. Beyond it, the WWB are weaker thru the end of December.
  17. mitchnick
    The ridge is transient and in response to the tropical system. Nbd
  18. mitchnick
    I meant to add that I am surprised the Euro didn't come in warmer for December. What it shows suggests December has a chance for accumulating snow for most of the forum, albeit modest the way those temps look.
  19. mitchnick
    Cfs2 and Euro are starting to look verrrrry similar. Still have the NMME, Jamstec and JMA fwiw. In the end, the +precip looks to be a lock, so it'll be up to whether we can squeeze just enough cold air from the north. I could see a train of disturbances coming along with the first being rain, but pulling down enough cold in its wake to setup snow in the follow-up system; or even rain to snow or snow to rain prevailing throughout the season. I think we should have a hint of our chances by Thanksgiving since the 5H looks pretty uniform thru the winter months.
  20. mitchnick
    Yep. It's gorgeous outside. Anyway, the only thing that matters now is to maintain the +NAO thru October and hope that turns into a - NAO for winter. And fwiw, 12z runs of both the Gefs and Geps do just that solidly +NAO today thru the end of their runs (ending 10/21.)
  21. mitchnick
    I'll try this again. Lol I like how the Euro has 850 temp anomalies for most of the forum under 1C for the DJF period. The SLP for the periid is tasty too. Sorry about the 850 map, but that's all money can buy you on the free site. Bncho?
  22. mitchnick
    Monthly temp and precip care of bncho in MA forum.
  23. mitchnick
    I believe @Weather Will and @CAPE would have monthly Euro seasonal maps. Hint, hint...!
  24. mitchnick
    Updated October Euro seasonal out. Temos around the same as September.'s. But a little wetter than September. These maps are for DJF combined fyi. https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/seasonal_system5_standard_2mtm?area=NAME&base_time=202610010000&stats=ensm&valid_time=202612020000 https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/seasonal_system5_standard_rain?area=NAME&base_time=202610010000&stats=ensm&valid_time=202612020000
  25. mitchnick
    Euro a little wetter this run vs September for the DJF period. Probably noise. https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/seasonal_system5_standard_rain?area=NAME&base_time=202610010000&stats=ensm&valid_time=202612020000
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