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mitchnick

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Everything posted by mitchnick

  1. mitchnick
    I believe most modeling has it peaking in November, faster than 82/83 & 97/98. If that's what happens, an earlier peak, it doesn't necessarily have to exceed those years. It still could, but it's not a given. The faster it has developed, the faster it fades? Idk, just sayin'.
  2. mitchnick
  3. mitchnick
    I wouldn't call it a head fake. I envision something more gradual with full tilt a month+ later than usual. But I could be wrong, soooo...
  4. mitchnick
    In case you didn't experience or forgot what January, 1994 cold was like, enjoy this TWC rerun. You only hear music, but check out the forecasts and obs. Hard to believe we kept getting screwed with the zr and ip for most of the high precip storms.
  5. mitchnick
    Traditionally, the Niño conditions do start to show themselves come September, but they really haven't shown themselves this summer yet either with cool temps. Though there have been/will be a few flashes of Nino, but not like usual. The -PDO and Niña base state have been hard to shake off. We're going to have to sit tight and wait until October or November.
  6. mitchnick
    Cfs2 has been advertising a drop in the anomalies for about 8 days too, give or take, fwiw, before a resumption of warming and November peak.
  7. mitchnick
    Another 1.15" last night. Ughh, the grass/weeds...
  8. mitchnick
    This link has it from the Cfs2 around 2/3's down the page. https://www.stormsurf.com/page2/links/ensocurr.html There's also a link above the 850 forecast for additional info: https://ncics.org/portfolio/monitor/mjo/
  9. mitchnick
    That's a crazy list of analog years with no rhyme or reason if you just consider Enso.
  10. mitchnick
    Where? What period? F or C? Snowfall forecast? Not that details matter in a weather forecast.
  11. mitchnick
    For someone allegedly concerned about cc, you and the rest of the worry warts sure seem to revel in the warmth. Lol
  12. mitchnick
    What was their prediction at this point for last winter if you know?
  13. mitchnick
    Just under 2" in 25 minutes and more to come.
  14. mitchnick
    Crushed up here right now. Noah said he'd be back to get me, but he didn't have change for a 20.
  15. mitchnick
    You haven't visited the Mid Atlantic lately, have you?
  16. mitchnick
    It's been waxing and waning since February came into view. If you go to the actual Cfs2 site and check out the monthly forecasts, it's a little colder than what the TT site shows due to different time periods. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/CFSv2seasonal.shtml
  17. mitchnick
    I'm not at 40N, but with being at 39.92N, I've experienced 1 AN snowfall here since 2019. 20/21 was it. 21/22 BWI beat me as I totally missed the 1/22 event. Basically, the Niñas, save 1, have been better to my E and NE, while the 23/24 Niño sucked for all.
  18. mitchnick
    Big, early departures may result in an ugly monthly + anomaly, but once it flips and gets cold enough for snowfall, who cares!!! February will be knocking on the door.
  19. mitchnick
    WxBell winter forecast and discussion. I think the maps were previously posted, but maybe not the discussion with analogs. https://www.weatherbell.com/winter-2026-27-preview
  20. mitchnick
    It's a 3 month average and Cfs2 is showing on the monthly forecasts that December's a dumpster fire and February looks workable to great. So you're going to get goofy 3 month averages.
  21. mitchnick
    Bad guess! There's no 500mb map on this site, but 700mb will be close enough at this point.
  22. mitchnick
    Maybe due to monster GOA Low.
  23. mitchnick
    Mts seem to be beating the line up a bit.
  24. mitchnick
    That question has been tossed around for weeks over in the main El Niño thread. I think we in the MA have started to see it with increased precip over the last month, but there's no evidence of it yet on a larger scale. Rest assured, it's coming...for better or worse.
  25. mitchnick
    Still rising slowly.
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