mitchnick

Euro with a grand finali

There's a reason why soap operas remain so popular...daytime drama! Lol

Gefs impressive thru 324hrs

We're all (or almost all) better off with the Ukie forecast.

It was fookin' great. We got stuck and my friend was driving his rear wheel drive and he told me to get out and tell the people coming up behind us to go around. This big old Winnebago came down the hill and lucky saw me and my friend's car in time and went around it. But it continued down the hill into the clouds (which we were in.) We stopped at the last overlook before Rt. 214? to Sperryville, which was below the cloud deck, and facing east we could see brightness in the distance while clouds were forming just below our elevation and moving through us at the overlook. By the time we got to Warrenton we heard the national news at the top of the hour say that over 1,000 people were stranded in Shenandoah National Park due to an early season snow storm. Memory of a lifetime. EDIT: I meant to add that my friends car was a huge Ford Torino. The rear wheel drive made it a nightmare on those hills, but he got us off alive! Lol

Big Meadows at around 3,400'. Almost got stuck there in an early "freak" snowstorm in 10/78. Crazy, crazy time getting off the mts in snow and sleet.

Gfs had to wait for us to lose the cold before bringing it out.

Oh those rates were unbelievable once 2 or 3am hit with these huge flakes and several inches/hour for 2+ hours. But being out in the Megalopolis storm in 2/83, pushing my uncle's car out of the snow during the hour when BWI reported 4" of snow with repetitive lightning strikes and claps of thunder was probably better!

Fwiw, 18z Nam gives the combined metro areas a coating to at most an inch tomorrow night, and the Icon refuses to give up on the Cape storm for those N and W, with far NW favored.

As many reasons as there are ensemble members, and then some.

Might I suggest far NNE. They don't have internet.

Gefs like Sunday into Monday fwiw. 24hr snowfall.

No, moderate Niño.

This way out there and low skill (unlike the precision of the Euro ), but the Cfs2 has been hammering for weeks a well AN precip March as reflected in the attached map. Looks Niño to me. But IF correct and we can get it falling at the start of the month with the most favorable temps, we might have a shot at some measurable March snows which have disappeared since 2018. I know, I know,...snows in general have disappeared as well, but after a decent string of March snows starting in 2014, they have generally been MIA since 2018; arguably, 2019 did have an event that was small at all airports and IAD had a few inches in 2022, but they were not area wide.

9z Srefs like the idea of rain ending as snow too. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=srefens&p=sn10_acc-mean-imp&rh=2026011306&fh=384&r=us_ma&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1

It shifted south from 0z, so quit complaining.

6z EuroAI cozying up to the idea too.

6z Nam getting on board for tomorrow night...sort of.

Should have waited for the Euro.

Fwiw, 18z Eps gives us an inch and operational just shy of it.

Odd, wasn't it? We always get pure snow every winter. Must be another Gfs error.

Looked like a 3rd one was lining up at the end too.

Surprised no one mentioned (assuming I didn't miss it) the end of all 3 ensembles from 12z. Incredible agreement and great, great pattern. Here's the Eps with links to the other 2. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs-ens&region=nhem&pkg=z500a&runtime=2026011212&fh=384 https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gem-ens&region=nhem&pkg=z500a&runtime=2026011212&fh=384

I'll take the Canadian please. 2 shots