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mitchnick

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Everything posted by mitchnick

  1. mitchnick
    I've got lt snow here. Anything up north of me?
  2. mitchnick
    Got some lt snow flurry action here. Nbd
  3. mitchnick
    We're in a colder base state. This would work for Baltimore City IF you can get precip to hold together over the mts and/or preferably redevelopment once east of them.
  4. mitchnick
    If you go back and look, the Nam shifted the heavy accumulations north at 12z yesterday if I recall, and has been furthest North with the accumulating snow area. As bad as the Nam can be, it always sniffs out the mid level warmth.
  5. mitchnick
    Yeah, I thought it looked like 12/14 too. I’ll keep my fingers crossed that those of us situated between the mts and ocean don't get skipped.
  6. mitchnick
    No need. 18z Euro
  7. mitchnick
    Euro does
  8. mitchnick
    Congrats man. You and your peeps deserve this one.
  9. mitchnick
    We've been cheated on this one.
  10. mitchnick
    Nice westerly wind burst along the equatorial Pacific forecasted on the weeklies that's on our doorstep.
  11. mitchnick
    Take your pick!
  12. mitchnick
    Got some heavy sleet under a bright yellow radar band.
  13. mitchnick
    Although I'm usually optimistic, I don't like what I'm seeing at all. Yeah, something could pop up, but the advertised pattern looks to me like a different take on cold and dry and there are no single legit threats showing up on the ensembles causing mean snowfall progs to respond. Until some one identifiable threat appears, I think it's safe to bet on nothing. How I hope that changes.
  14. mitchnick
    This system has reverted back to the old days of Niñas when the snow/freezing line slowly crept north as we got closer to the event. Unlike the snows in VA earlier in the month that never really bugged much at all from several days out.
  15. mitchnick
    All ensemble snowfall imby are horrendous with 1-2". I know they aren't accurate, but usually because they are too high! That's the problem! Lol
  16. mitchnick
    Jma scores coups sometimes. I wouldn't call it a joke, but it's not a consistent top performer.
  17. mitchnick
    Since the scale explanation mentions "significance ", I've just figured there was nothing compelling warm or cold, so I figure near normal.
  18. mitchnick
    Talk to Weather53.
  19. mitchnick
    It does have a scale, but if you're on a phone, you need to turn it horizontal. By doing that, you'll see 3 icons on the bottom, right of the map. Touch the middle one for the scale. It's a probability scale.
  20. mitchnick
    No problems imho.
  21. mitchnick
    I'm thinking maybe the numbers they're feeding into the equation are prefaced with these: $.
  22. mitchnick
    When you look at the Euro site maps, you don't come away with such a cold anomaly. So yeah, I'm saying I think WB is inaccurate. https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/extended-anomaly-2t?base_time=202512250000&projection=opencharts_north_america&valid_time=202601050000
  23. mitchnick
    That was a Niño. This is a Niña.
  24. mitchnick
    Maybe, but it's tough to lose 2 weeks in the dead of winter.
  25. mitchnick
    Got to admit, it may not be a torch pattern, but it's not a snow pattern. Even to our north, there's nothing screaming out on the ensembles as a legit threat. This rollover pattern (NW to SE) that gave VA their substantial snows and mostly modest event for DCA/BWI, now NYC area, is lousy for area wide snowfall. Luck always plays a part in snowfall, but this pattern requires lottery winning type of luck.
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