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mitchnick

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Everything posted by mitchnick

  1. mitchnick
    Can't wait to see February's forecast next month.
  2. mitchnick
    The point I was making was that last year proved that it can be colder than what models progged. I don't give a rat's arse why. It really can be colder than what seasonal models show. Of course, it can be warmer too. But if the warmer than normal isn't in your back yard, do you care? I sure don't. All that said, I think most of us are here for the snow. 12/2015 was at least 10 degrees AN at BWI (my old stomping grounds), yet I had 29" in 1 storm the next month, the record snowfall at BWI. Did I care about December? I think you know the answer. The only concern over temps I have is that it can limit snowfall. But with the right pattern, AN temps in January and February can overcome them. And I know you're looking toward the January-March period as I am instead of met winter.
  3. mitchnick
    Since it hasn't happened and last winter in the east/NE ended up colder than progged, nothing's in the bag.
  4. mitchnick
    I should have mentioned as well, this hasn't been a textbook pre-Nino summer so far, though it appears to be heading that way now. Why should we expect a textbook Nino response this winter? Idk, just a thought. Plenty we don't know.
  5. mitchnick
    The fact that seasonal modeling continues to cool over the last 3 runs gives winter weenies hope.
  6. mitchnick
    Updated NMME hasn't caved on the generally cooler look with this month's run vs last like the Euro. Top 2 pics are DJF temps from last month and today. Bottom 2 are JFM same comparison. P.s. Note I said "generally." Some spots up to the NE not. Also, wet along the east coast and inland some. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=nmme&region=us&pkg=apcpna_multimonth_nmme&runtime=2026080800&fh=6
  7. mitchnick
    Actually, this statement isn't so outrageous as that map may suggest: "The Northeast may face one of the season’s most complicated winter patterns. Coastal communities could receive more rain or mixed precipitation, while inland areas may be hit by several rounds of heavy, wet snow—particularly during January and February. Small shifts in storm tracks and temperatures could make the difference between rain, sleet, freezing rain, and accumulating snow."
  8. mitchnick
    Some Euro January temp maps off WxBell courtesy MA forum. Top map is from the July forecast and bottom is August's.
  9. mitchnick
    NDJ and DJF mean sea level pressure anomalies off 8/1 Euro seasonal.
  10. mitchnick
    As did 850 temps in MA and SE.
  11. mitchnick
    Gotta' love the Aleutian Low at 5H.
  12. mitchnick
    That range is .5-1C.
  13. mitchnick
    Some WB maps at this post.
  14. mitchnick
    Here's the August DJF temp forecast.
  15. mitchnick
    5H is better this run too. DJF is looking a lot like Cfs2.
  16. mitchnick
    Euro seasonal a little cooler in the MA and SE. This is for the NDJ period. Can't compare DJF because July's forecast ends at NDJ.
  17. mitchnick
    Based solely on the url, it looks like v5 (version 5?) is the lower number and v6 (version 6?) is the higher number.
  18. mitchnick
    Yet, and this may have already been mentioned, most modeling shows the upcoming MJO having an affinity for the Maritime Continent. https://www.stormsurf.com/page2/links/mjo_phase.html
  19. mitchnick
    Cfs2 has been hitting hard in October for a while. Considering how far away we are from October, it might be the biggest yet if correct. But is that signaling the big finale? Idk. Just wondering based on an apparent November forecast peak.
  20. mitchnick
    Oh, the "not me, it's you" defense. Lol If you call trying to get to the bottom line of a post/position an attack, I can't help you. But the bottom line is, you haven't denied my synopsis of your post/position because it's accurate. Which is fine. You can take whatever position you want. But clarity matters, that's all.
  21. mitchnick
    Oh, the need for a cheap shot can't escape you can it? You've shown your true colors. That was easy.
  22. mitchnick
    So you think everything in law is black and white? You're kidding me right? The point you miss is one doesn’t need to say a lot to make a point. The past 2 or 3 months, you've been triggered every month with the updated seasonal forecasts because they haven't shown a furnace in the east. In essence, your warning is models have under forecasted the strength of ridges in the past which "could" be taken as guaranteed future results i.e. stronger ridges resulting in more heat. But no real forecast because we just don't know yet...but it still "could." That really is the sum and substance of all those posts the way I see it. Where am I wrong?
  23. mitchnick
    Can't you ever answer a simple question with a simple answer? When I was in law school, they beat into our heads: be brief and to the point. I didn't ask if any models should be taken at face value. I asked if" the ridges will be or won't be stronger and thereby causing current seasonal modeling for the southeast, mid atlantic, and/or northeast to be wrong?" So, do you or don't you? Because right now, your statements are nothing more than "could be." Which leaves them open to you claiming victory if they are stronger and defending the statements if they aren't by saying "I said could be."
  24. mitchnick
    You've posted this several times this year and even before the 24/25 winter. So are you saying the ridges will be or won't be stronger and thereby causing current seasonal modeling for the southeast, mid atlantic, and/or northeast to be wrong? I mean you could be right, or you could be wrong obviously, but your post appear to be simply saying "current seasonal modeling could be wrong." Forget about the rest of the globe because I'm sure we'll find seasonal modeling too strong or weak with ridges/troughs as that's a given.
  25. mitchnick
    My point was despite any warming, last year's Niña was pretty canonical. This year's Niño can still happen (canonical) by either the PDO coming around or the Niño overwhelming it. And when you consider all the seasonal models are pretty well aligned to one, odds favor it short of a total failure of all seasonal modeling.
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