mitchnick

6z Euro came south some, but not far enough. Slams NYC. Nobody's safe with this one before Christmas imho.

Meh...my wife with has a long list of things of things to be pissed off about with me if this doesn't do it.

It did and consistent with the Euro's tendency for slow run-to-run changes. So I can see we'll all be running to the bathroom to check our phones at Christmas gatherings. Lol

The block is legit, but you and I have been screwed so many times over the years with 150hr+ storms and blizzards to not be surprised. It's just different IF this time it works in our favor. But, it is the Gfs, so...

Seasonal trends baby! Of course, that means ultimately we get nothing and Chill gets a foot+.

That system is getting pushed south over the last couple of runs. I have some weenie hope the push south continues. If central and southern VA can get 5-10" in early/mid December, no reason we don't have a shot at that system getting far enough south to much of this forum for snow.

Private forecast company out of the Midwest. Indiana I believe. Yes, legit. They were spot on last year with their calls of cold despite models when they were trying to break down the cold. But past performance is....

Or fake blues

Don't know if anyone saw this, but worth a quick read regarding new NOAA modeling. https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/noaa-deploys-new-generation-of-ai-driven-global-weather-models

Well, all I said was cold/BN without referring to snow. I think we all know it can still snow in an AN temps regime, just harder generally speaking. The fact is, however, we just went through a well BN period with most just squeaking out light total snowfall numbers save those in the central/southern VA locations. So "no", I didn't say we should punt anything. Simply that Europe is in line for BN temps on today's weeklies and that may rotate over the the Conus around the end of the month if history repeats as in the fall. The problem is Ralph, you were just dying to say that people are now punting January. My guess is, you were, in fact, the one thinking on punting January.

Let's hope he's right this time!

It's in Europe. https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/extended-anomaly-2t?base_time=202512200000&projection=opencharts_europe&valid_time=202512290000 Coincidentally, Europe was really cold before we had our cold starting mid-late November, so maybe we live through AN in January while we wait for another chance late Januaryinto February. Just a thought...or prayer.

It's been the same Niña base state, despite Niño in 23/24, so I'd believe it.

What a fantasy ending on the 0z Gfs

Heavy snow shower here. Some yellow on radar, but very brief.

No, that's called a euphuked.

Line came through here with some wind and heavy rain. Not bad. Probably because it came through so fast.

Surprisingly, Euro weeklies are not quite as warm as yesterday fwiw. It keeps us near or just south of the normal line unlike yesterday which had us AN until the end of January. But it's not a pattern conducive to snowfall. Looks more like our chances would be along the lines of threats advertised on the 6z Gfs, if anything. Here's a link. You can adjust the date of the runs to see what the previous 3+ weeks of runs looked like too. https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/extended-anomaly-2t?base_time=202512180000&projection=opencharts_north_america&valid_time=202512290000 Edit: all weekly products can be found here: https://charts.ecmwf.int/?facets={"Product type"%3A["Experimental%3A AIFS"]%2C"Parameters"%3A[]%2C"Type"%3A[]%2C"Range"%3A["Sub-seasonal"]}

You mentioned that previously, but the Cfs has it getting stronger in its last few forecasts. Here's the latest. When I say strongest, I mean more members are calling for a temp drop.

Imho, what has thrown a monkey wrench into the mix is the Niña has unexpectedly come back to life. A few weeks ago, it was supposed to have been dead with a solid neutral by now. Instead, those effin' trade winds are back with a vengeance and look to be sticking around into late January. This 850 wind anomaly prog only goes through mid January, but the longer one has it going through most of January, then neutral.

I have always likened it to discussing how a sports team may perform if they can trade for this guy or that guy. It's harmless speculation on a subject we enjoy that costs nothing. And nobody's hurt by it because nothing can get through the scars we all have suffered from countless busts! Lol

You can say it....we're due!

At least we have a home address.

Block was lousy throughout the run really resulting in few cold intrusions.