mitchnick
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Everything posted by mitchnick
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Looks very close to the January Eps seasonal that came out a few days away.
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I was assuming he meant 81/82 winter.
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And sadly the plane and train crashes.
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Kuchie not as kind.
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It'll be gone by 0z unfortunately.
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Just looked! Me too!!!
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That's what happens when you save my posts.
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I'm not confident on the MJO getting thru phases 7-8-1-2 as he mentions at the end of his post. Failure to get thu them would be a negative for us. https://www.stormsurf.com/page2/links/mjo_phase.html
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We just need that blue spot/low NE of Hawaii to grow to a persistent sob!
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If February was to surprise us to the positive, I doubt we see that coming before mid-January. The best weak Nina to my recollection in the MA was 95/96. But even that had a nasty thaw in January. But odds now certainly favor a lousy February, at least south of NE.
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All comes down to what the individual members show. A couple of big hits skewing the mean to make it useless or a decent number of moderate hits with a few big dogs and dogs averaging things out.
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Great video on solar activity over the next couple weeks. Pole region predicted to get decent solar storm activity. Wonder what it does for AO/NAO prospects.
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I'm using the World Climate website. It's been mentioned by Gawx many times it's lower than the site you posted. Either site is fine if you're using it for relative changes compared to historical values, which is is all I'm doing.
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Last year on this date, we were a hair lower than -2. This year's -1.31 is much better than last year (if you want snow in the east), so maybe we can make it sufficiently high enough to make a difference. There's still time in light of the trend over the last 3 months.
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Sorry. I'll wait for something earth shattering before I post. Can your attitude get any worse? I was just updating the numbers.
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Cooling around Japan continuing a slow and steady rising of the PDO too.
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I like that the trough is centered further west than the Lakes because it "should" open up the Gulf and Atlantic for overrunning while remaining cold enough for many for snow/frozen chances. If the trough was over the Lakes, it's cold/dry city outside that LES beneficiaries.
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Wxmodels DJF 500mb looks better than the free graphics from the Euro site.
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Euro seasonal for December from MA forum.
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February Niñas are notoriously warm and dry with few exceptions unfortunately. We'll definitely need to hope late November thru January work out or we're outta luck (short of 1 of those few exceptions.)
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Yeah. I suspect the new forecast came in cooler thanks to what is showing up in the extended forecasts for December. Unless we get lucky with the strat as you said, the Niña totally collapses into something like a weak Niño, or just plain luck, I'm already brushing up on my 4-letter word vocabulary for February.
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Comparison to this year's 500mb anomaly forecast for DJF and last year (bottom)
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Here's a link to all the seasonal Euro if interested. https://charts.ecmwf.int/?facets={"Product type"%3A["Experimental%3A AIFS"]%2C"Parameters"%3A[]%2C"Type"%3A[]%2C"Range"%3A["Seasonal"]}
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Updated Euro seasonal out today. DJF cooler than last run fwiw.
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