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mitchnick

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Everything posted by mitchnick

  1. mitchnick
    Eps
  2. mitchnick
    Let's not forget how amp crazy the Euro can be. Just sayin'. The difference between this forecast and the Gfs isn't that much. But I do agree the bleeding needs to stop.
  3. mitchnick
    Speaking of ensembles, the 12z Canadians were in line with other ensembles too despite the operational.
  4. mitchnick
    Didn't see it posted, pardon me if it was. The 12z Ukie ensembles. Back to looking a lot like 0z with DCA/BWI being the bullseye.
  5. mitchnick
    18z GGEM looks like it's getting all wound up at lonk below, but comparing it to the Rgem at 84hrs, Rgem with noticeably better confluence fwiw. https://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-prediction/forecast-systems.php?lang=en&mod=cmc_gdps
  6. mitchnick
    Icon children (ensembles) say "forget my old man, my real father is the Gfs."
  7. mitchnick
    Double digit snows Harrisburg north
  8. mitchnick
    Icon sorta sux. Lost the confluence too fast.
  9. mitchnick
    With virtual an option, probably longer than they need to.
  10. mitchnick
    At 60hrs, heights on 18z Icon are also lower than 12z by around same margin as Nam fwiw
  11. mitchnick
    Virga vs fallen
  12. mitchnick
    At 84hrs on Nam, 534 Height line is thru Fredericksburg while Euro same time had it cutting thru DCA. We'll take all we can get.
  13. mitchnick
    As was the snow/ice line.
  14. mitchnick
    Still at 69hrs
  15. mitchnick
    Better confluence than 12z Nam run will help. Still lower heights at 60hrs vs 12z Nam.
  16. mitchnick
    Heights still a little lower than 12z Nam at 57hrs
  17. mitchnick
    Heights are lower a bit on the east coast.
  18. mitchnick
  19. mitchnick
    Maybe if you had bought him lunch instead pleading poverty and having him pay, you would have gotten a different opinion?
  20. mitchnick
    They needed time to launch more balloons I heard.
  21. mitchnick
    Oh...so you just look at the pictures instead of reading.
  22. mitchnick
    Gfs ai precip
  23. mitchnick
    I posted earlier the 6z GGEM was colder at 84hrs vs 90hrs at 0z, so they're consistent.
  24. mitchnick
    We can always remember how all guidance had its failure. But when I compared that map to the 6z Eps, it's surprisingly similar and 850 temps are as close to identical as 2 different ensembles can be. So Srefs aren't perfect, but not worth discarding completely imho.
  25. mitchnick
    Latest Srefs 84hrs has quite the phase. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=srefens&p=500h_anom-mean&rh=2026012109&fh=87&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1
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