mitchnick

I really don't care about Dc, it's snowfall history or anything else with this conversation.ENSO ONLY PLEASE.

Per ice core samples at NP. Now we're even. Please, no more cc talk in this thread. Tia

We came out of a roughly 500 year mini-ice age around 1850 and it got warmer thereafter.

The regular Eps has been too warm at range since the start of August while the AI version has been better. Maybe the trend continues and maybe not. Either way, until and unless the regular Eps can prevail, I wouldn't be too concerned with that map. Otoh, even if right, we're real close to the +.50-+1.0C line, so a couple degrees F isn't a scorcher.

Since you mentioned MJO, you made me look! Lol Looks like all modeling has recently (day?) shifted back away from 4-5-6. https://www.stormsurf.com/page2/links/mjo_phase.html

That may the case, but I'm curious what the AI EPS shows since it's done better in the medium range than the Eps. That's all.

One thing to keep in mind. Not that anyone should discount the Eps, but the AI EPS has done much better with the cooler air in the last month+ as I mentioned a few pages back and that BAMWX also noted. Anyone with a Wxbell or Weathermodels subscription, do they offer long range AI EPS? Tia

Snowman19 seeing this post.

Not that it matters at this point, but the monthly temp forecast isn't that bad for the NE. It's pretty rudimentary, but you get the jist of it that the 3 month averages of +1-2C is likely closer to +1 than +2. Precip for the 3 months is within the average range for many on the east coast as well during DJF, while JFM is average for everyone.

Tony, the retired NWS Met from Philly, said that a combo of September and October temps vs. just September had a high correlation to determining above/below temps for the D-F average in Philly. He used to post at Phillywx, then when it closed, joined the same folks on Discord I believe. If not Discord, one of the other platforms. I think Chubb would know. Anyway, for mby, it correlates similarly to Phl. Unfortunately, it's a painful, long 2 month wait and you're almost into November by the time you know. By then, winter forecasts are out and some, especially north and west of Philly, may have already experienced some winter wx. But it's a useful predictor nonetheless and likely extends further north and west from Philly.

Gotta' give it to him. That's a whole lot of words for a non-forecast.

Must be time for a Fall thread. JB's preliminary winter forecast. I'd be happy with it. Sorta lines up with the Cansips, at least temp-wise, and somewhat the Euro seasonal.

Honestly, I've posted more about temps in this forum in the past 2 or 3 pages than I have in this or any forum. Lol In the end, there's nothing I can do about it in the large scale, so I don't care or focus on them. I hope it's cold enough to snow as often as possible over 2-3 months out of the year. If not, oh well. There's always whining to ease the pain.

Well, once the savior of the world gig predictably fails, she can get a job working for Dutch Boy paints.

Is there a map? Can you post it? Tia

Enso anomalies reluctant to make any major moves in latest readings. The -.4 is 3.4. 27AUG2025 20.5-0.3 24.3-0.6 26.3-0.4 28.5-0.2

Some yellows se of Baltimore today. Probably drought related as much as cool temps.

First, I know they try, but since there are so many stations that haven't existed since 1901, they are obviously filling in blanks. Where they received that info and how it's calculated makes or breaks it's accuracy. The fact is, Capital City airport in the northern tip of York County was +2.2 and +2.5 for June/July going back to 1939 and York Airport since the start of recording back to 1998, at the southern end of York County, was +2.1 and 2.9. They have York County at +4.1. That map has the the entire County in +3-5. So we're relying on exactly what to piece temps? As for the recent heat, it means nothing to me. I'm not scared.

Doubt it in reality, but with the website you're using it may be the case

According to Harrisburg Capital Airport, that's been open in the same location and collecting data since 1939, this summer was -.7F.

That map, though maybe close and maybe not, is not completely accurate per the map creator. https://prism.oregonstate.edu/historical/ They even state: Values prior to 1981 are based on less extensive observations.

Your summer 2025 was only for June and July. Adding August will make a noticeable difference methinks.

My guess would be location of thermometer to surface material grass vs. concrete (light colored hard surface) or asphalt (dark colored hard surface), sunlight, buildings, and river, or a combination of 2 or more, which results in warmer readings relative to other locations that have properly placed thermometers. "Properly placed" as in not effected by known microclimate features or natural microclimate features like direct sunlight or the Susquehanna river.

Both Harrisburg airports have remained at the same location since they started reporting weather obs. MDT records go back to 1992 while Harrisburg Capital Airport go all the way back to 1939. If you had any doubts that MDT records are questionable, as many have mentioned/joked since I purchased a home in 2019 and followed the forum, this summer's records are all the evidence you need. MDT monthly temp anomalies respectively: +1.3, +2.5, -2.6 = monthly average of +.4 (normal is ofter defined as +/- .5) Capital Airport monthly temp anomalies respectively: +.7, +1.2, -4.0 = monthly average of -.7

@snowman19 I think you'll like this. Great solar presentation.