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mitchnick

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Everything posted by mitchnick

  1. mitchnick
    Surprisingly, Euro seasonal still not very impressed with ACE forecast.
  2. mitchnick
    New Euro seasonal has potential written all over it. Very wet with coastal storms clearly favored. Temps look to cooperate (only a little AN Nov-Jan) more than one may have thought with s Niño as strong as advertised. Here's a link to the free parameters. Unfortunately, they only go out to January, but if what it's showing holds for next month's forecast, Feb (March too?) should be rockin'. https://charts.ecmwf.int/?facets={"Product type"%3A["Experimental%3A AIFS"]%2C"Parameters"%3A[]%2C"Type"%3A[]%2C"Range"%3A["Seasonal"]} How's this for a mean Surface pressure Nov-Jan?
  3. mitchnick
    I started to say I agree, but I just couldn't get myself to do it. Lol j/k So, the latest Cfs2 for December! Lol
  4. mitchnick
    Couldn't agree more. It tells me that the other seasonal models aren't far off with their progs of a winter offering legit chances for snow and cold, obviously interspersed with AN periods that will push the mean to only a little AN. Of course, without seeing the monthly maps, there's a but of speculation on my part.
  5. mitchnick
    Euro seasonal temps and precip thru January don't look bad to me in the east. Very wet with surface temps dropping as we head into winter. I bet February would look great, but the free maps stop at January. H5 looks reasonably tasty too imho. Naysayers, have at it. Lol Link to free parameters. https://charts.ecmwf.int/?facets={"Product type"%3A["Experimental%3A AIFS"]%2C"Parameters"%3A[]%2C"Type"%3A[]%2C"Range"%3A["Seasonal"]}
  6. mitchnick
    I thought this whole thread was a fallacy! Lol
  7. mitchnick
    Now you've done it. Just wait for all those 246hr Gfs snowstorm maps this winter from us weenies.
  8. mitchnick
    I'm interested to see if the new Euro will light up in the tropical western Pacific since it was BN last month and only slightly AN in the eastern Pacific.
  9. mitchnick
    With the projected strength of this Niño, anything on our side is encouraging at this point!
  10. mitchnick
    I'm inland at 600', but the hills to my N & NE would be the better spot. Of course, if that was to happen, I'd say it would then be a shutout for most until January.
  11. mitchnick
    Warm early with better chances after the New Year is pretty much what current seasonal modeling (that goes through at least March) is showing. That said, as was posted earlier, with October Niños usually BN, I wouldn't be surprised if someone in the east, preferably higher elevations, get a fluke October or early November snowfall. Just a hunch.
  12. mitchnick
    The exact opposite. I posted earlier that I liked the fact the Cansips faded the Niño west over the winter. He didn't quote me because that the way he operates.
  13. mitchnick
    Sad
  14. mitchnick
    That's not east based. I like the way warmest anomalies fade west.
  15. mitchnick
    Good news
  16. mitchnick
    Sun has become pretty active again contrary to your typical transition to a minimum. Let's see if that continues. https://solen.info/solar/index.html
  17. mitchnick
    Late to the party on this one, but this is the Cfs2 ssta map prog for December. Sure looks basinwide to these old eyes. Definitely not Modoki.
  18. mitchnick
    Nope. You're apparently centered on I95 locations.
  19. mitchnick
    Sux to be those other places. But most are centered around the I95 concrete jungle heat island. No surprise there and to be expected as the development has not ended.
  20. mitchnick
    Harrisburg Capital City Airport is -.8 thru June 26th. It's been closer to Niño around here. The heat waves this year have been transient or you wouldn't have a BN number thru the first 26 days of the month. Since this one won't start until Tuesday, the month will still likely end BN. My hunch is this heat will be transient again, but we'll have to see.
  21. mitchnick
    PDO still drifting higher regardless and contrary to last year's drop at this point.
  22. mitchnick
    Unfortunately, in this hobby, no bias = no hope! Lol
  23. mitchnick
    Won't be a record year, save the highest elevations. No one has said otherwise. But it's incredible how just posting model progs can cause such a stir. But as I said in my post to Michigan, no seasonal forecasts I've seen are flat out furnaces in the east. That and the surprisingly cold forecasts by at least the Cansips and Jamstec make me at least optimistic for a few snow chances considering the AN precip along the coast by most models.
  24. mitchnick
    The fact that you would put in writing the last sentence is what you live for says it all about you. Just sayin'. And to think you denied it before last winter when I accused you of just that.
  25. mitchnick
    Yep. So far, there are no seasonal forecasts that are undeniable furnace forecasts in the east, save maybe for NNE. But NNE can still get lots of snow with AN+ temps.
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