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mitchnick

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Everything posted by mitchnick

  1. mitchnick
    My weenie prediction is yesterday's 6z bomb run was to portend how this system ends up as the 18z run from 120hrs out in 2/07 ended up being the red flag for that storm.
  2. mitchnick
    With the model runs today taken as a whole, it feels/seems like the way things look a week before a typical decent event...some hits and misses. Definitely a different vibe from the last week or more. As much as some may think I am dying to pi$$ on the parade, I'm actually pretty enthusiastic with what I'm seeing. A few more tweaks and we're there.
  3. mitchnick
    What happens in between those hours? Snowfall maps?
  4. mitchnick
    It's a start!
  5. mitchnick
    Mainly BN on Tropical Tidbits, but, as usual, no where near WB even considering WB is F and TT is Celsius. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cfs-avg&region=us&pkg=T2maMean&runtime=2026010806&fh=168
  6. mitchnick
    Fwiw, Ukie is flat as a frying pan.
  7. mitchnick
    Gem misses but may give some upper low stuff
  8. mitchnick
    Never forget the Dgex victory a week+ before 2/6/10 & 2/10/10. It had us down for 36" and we all laughed.
  9. mitchnick
    Kuchera better
  10. mitchnick
    I don't think the storm would be ending fast on the Icon despite that surface map. If you look at the 700mb RH and wind direction along with 500mb vorticity, I think snow would linger. Here are the links. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=icon&p=700rh&rh=2026010812&fh=180&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1 https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=icon&p=500hv&rh=2026010812&fh=180&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1
  11. mitchnick
    Saw it coming
  12. mitchnick
    Better yet at 174
  13. mitchnick
    Icon at 162hrs looks not so bad. Let's see how it goes.
  14. mitchnick
    You can get SSTA maps and figures here. Use the Oisst instead of CRW under the "Option" as it's more accurate. https://cyclonicwx.com/sst/
  15. mitchnick
    It may be the Geps, but that's actually pretty!
  16. mitchnick
    More so on Pivotal
  17. mitchnick
    I agree on the first part, but none of the ensembles are going truly warm. If it changes, so be it.
  18. mitchnick
    Fixed
  19. mitchnick
    Even I'm not worried about the operational Gfs at the end of its run as ensembles are not warm.
  20. mitchnick
    That's just my convincing, lawyerly way. Lol Seriously, in my literally 54 years as a weenie, winters need to prove themselves. This winter has proved itself to have a lousy, overall pattern. Sure, it can change, but until we get that hit, the proof remains the same.
  21. mitchnick
    Are you saying it's a great pattern? I mean we've gone probably a week with ensembles spitting out <1" of snow during peak climo. I'm speaking truth...it's been a lousy pattern.
  22. mitchnick
    We are snake bit with this lousy pattern that has established itself this winter.
  23. mitchnick
    Might go back to snow, but it's an unbelievable scenario.
  24. mitchnick
    With the High Pressure pulling off the Virginia coast, you knew we had no chance.
  25. mitchnick
    Gem light, but just misses the big one.
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