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mitchnick

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Everything posted by mitchnick

  1. mitchnick
    Don't know if anyone noticed, but many of the MR models are showing a big hit of BN over the Conus east of the Mississippi at the end of their runs for the past few days. 18z EuroAi and Gfs are pretty impressive with 12z support on the Gefs and Geps. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ec-aifs&region=us&pkg=T2ma&runtime=2026100218&fh=360 https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=T2ma&runtime=2026100218&fh=384 Edit: Euro weeklies are on board too as the first 3 weeks (surprisingly) are BN in much of the east. https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/extended-anomaly-2t?base_time=202610020000&projection=opencharts_north_america&valid_time=202610120000
  2. mitchnick
    But cool air is on the way and not far away for that matter. https://www.weather.gov/wrh/hazards?obs=true&wfo=ctp&hazard=true&hazard_type=all&hazard_opacity=80&tab=legend
  3. mitchnick
    The October "mother of all WWB" has been on the Cfs2 for close to 2 months. Hard to believe with that model, but true nonetheless.
  4. mitchnick
    On the + side, it likely means it's a stronger push of colder air. I'll take that as a "not so negative" considering temp will likely be our biggest problem come December.
  5. mitchnick
    All 3 ensembles are showing just that thru the end of their runs today (again.)
  6. mitchnick
  7. mitchnick
    Enjoy it for now. It's gone after tomorrow.
  8. mitchnick
    Practicing for winter. Ukie ensembles.
  9. mitchnick
    From the bottom of the barrel, the Icon ensembles.
  10. mitchnick
    Wasn't the EuroAi and Eps combo the winning team over the weekend?
  11. mitchnick
    6z Eps
  12. mitchnick
    The +NAO strengthened thru mid October on all the ensembles last night fwiw.
  13. mitchnick
    It's fairly close in all respects to what the Cfs2 has been showing, just around .5C cooler. Unfortunately, that probably won't happen with the Niño level.
  14. mitchnick
    October Cansip update
  15. mitchnick
    Yes, but 500mb, temps and precip look ok. Check the winter thread in your forum.
  16. mitchnick
    I've been saying that for years, especially since the 2017 or 2018 "upgrade."
  17. mitchnick
    @40/70 Benchmark Cansips D-M
  18. mitchnick
    Cansips on TT (not all products yet) https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cansips&region=namer&pkg=z500a&runtime=2026100100&fh=0
  19. mitchnick
    Cansips for Canada probalistic forecast. You'll need to guess for US outside northern tier. 4-6 month period covers JFM. It's dated today. https://weather.gc.ca/saisons/prob_e.html
  20. mitchnick
    This is a probalistic forecast for Canada that you may be able to extrapolate for northern US. 4-6 months covers JFM. It is dated 9/30 https://weather.gc.ca/saisons/prob_e.html
  21. mitchnick
    Don't break my heart like that.
  22. mitchnick
    Did you notice that the 3 ensembles as of 0z runs continue showing a decently +NAO thru mid October? @Stormchaserchuck1
  23. mitchnick
    I didn't think I was going crazy. BWI reported no snow in 10/02...not even a trace. For BWI, snow in November is a good (but not guaranteed since nothing in weather ever is) sign, but not October.
  24. mitchnick
    I was camping at Big Meadows on Skyline Drive in October, 1979 when we woke up to thunder, lightning and rain that quickly turned to sleet then snow. We literally barely made it out in time before they closed Skyline Drive (we were in Sperryville when we heard it was just closed.) The ridge tops quickly accumulated 3"+ with heavy snow still falling making driving an absolute nightmare. Still wonder to this day how my friend's 1970 Ford Torino, an absolute boat with rear wheel drive, made it up and down the hills. By the time we made it to Rt. 211 (I think that's 211 that takes you to Sperryville), it was rain with still some thunder. Long story to simply confirm that I believe your map! Lol
  25. mitchnick
    His forecasts include Enso consideration but it's mainly based on actual weather during this calendar year. The exact formula/considerations he has never disclosed.
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