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mitchnick

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Everything posted by mitchnick

  1. mitchnick
  2. mitchnick
    Problem I'm seeing on all the worst modeling is that the primary is in TN, the models show weak low pressure off the coast, but a refusal of the primary to die and transfer it's energy to the coastal. Instead, the primary survives, pumping in warm air aloft as it slowly moves east, and once it makes to the coast it dumps on ENE and our precip has shut off.
  3. mitchnick
    Don't know. Sorry.
  4. mitchnick
    It is. Here's the Rap currently updating out to 5pm
  5. mitchnick
    Then there's always the FV3.
  6. mitchnick
    Gfs snowfall is around twice of Nams. If that's a fold, I'll take it every day.
  7. mitchnick
    Gfs laughs at Nams
  8. mitchnick
    Gfs decent thru 7am
  9. mitchnick
    The precip shield makes it look like one big warm front. Maybe that's all it is for us. Lol
  10. mitchnick
    It delays the change in DC until between 11 and 12, but has the same or less snow due to less qpf. Problem is, with the qpf comes the warmth.
  11. mitchnick
    Insufficient blocking allows it to be pushed out as fast as it came in.
  12. mitchnick
    Nams have sleet all the way into southern CT & RI. Just wait Boston, the sleet's coming for you too!
  13. mitchnick
    Surprisingly and thankfully, no zr on the Nam for us.
  14. mitchnick
    This has that 12/20 feel where the Euro had me at 18" and BWI was 4"+ two days before, only for the Nam to knock sense into everything. I ended up with 6" and then ip/zr.
  15. mitchnick
    3k as bad as 12k....maybe worse if you can believe it. And I know you can!
  16. mitchnick
    If you look at the DC sounding at 7am, it is clearly close enough for snow even if Nam is correct.
  17. mitchnick
    I still think back to that anafrontal snow in March 2014 where the Nam insisted on a warm layer around same spot as this storm, while other models played it down. Nam was wrong and mby got 7". We'll see.
  18. mitchnick
    Flow right out of the eastern equatorial Pacific. https://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/us_comp/large
  19. mitchnick
    Looking at p-type radars, Euro and Gfs looking spot on with the snow/sleet line along the southern TN border at 7am.
  20. mitchnick
    Pretty good radar here and had sectors for close-up views. It's a small screen on mobile until you turn your phone sideways. https://cyclonicwx.com/radar/us/
  21. mitchnick
    Nice red sky in the northern horizon at sunrise this morning. Nothing beats the red sky the morning of the 1/16 blizzard. I had a crummy phone at the time so the pics don't do it just, plus I was driving so...
  22. mitchnick
    Euro snow depth as of 7am Monday. Mix or not, that's still a lot of snow remaining on the ground after the storm.
  23. mitchnick
    Latest long range Rap 9z
  24. mitchnick
    Something will pop back up. We'll still be in a favorable MJO phase. And then we've got HM on our side.
  25. mitchnick
    Wth went on down there. My brother said his bill has doubled+. New rates or new taxes?
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