mitchnick

His forecasts include Enso consideration but it's mainly based on actual weather during this calendar year. The exact formula/considerations he has never disclosed.

I figured the mts must have done better, but not living here then I didn't know for certain. I'm not worried about the warming planet if we have the right pattern/track. 50+ years ago (as in the early and mid 70's) were horrendous with many snow to ip or mainly zr/ip storms. The only 6"+ storm I recall during that period was in 12/73, and that switched over to ip/zr before ending south of BWI. It wasn't until the NE blizzard in early 2/78 that BWI got close to a 10" snowfall. Of all things, it was the mother of all Miller B's too. But I agree 100% with your earlier post that it's the -PDO state that's killing us. I do think, however, this Niño is going to shake things up in the Pacific and would expect a shift away from a -PDO in the means very soon, as in next year or the year after.

No October snow. I remain a firm believer it does not help the winter cause. Coastal storms? Sure. The more the merrier.

11.8" in Hanover and 11.4" in Harrisburg. Those locations lacked sufficient elevation to do well, though still muuuuch better than IAD, DCA and BWI.

A measly .4" yesterday and today. Just enough to wreck a weekend.

Keep in mind that if you're more interested in winter weather, a snapshot of June's Enso is generally irrelevant.

This weather sux imho.

I was surprised to see as well how much the Conus, especially east of the Rockies, stays at or BN for weeks after that week. And the AN is not excessive. https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/extended-anomaly-2t?base_time=202609260000&projection=opencharts_north_america&valid_time=202610050000

5-day Eps average at the end of last night's run agrees.

That cam just died. The one in Kitty Hawk works. https://surfchex.com/cams/kitty-hawk-nc/

That cam just died. Lol Here's Kitty Hawk, NC up the beach a few miles.. https://surfchex.com/cams/kitty-hawk-nc/

N.C. feeling it already. https://surfchex.com/cams/nags-head-web-cam-abalone-st/

Coming to a beach near you. Angry! https://surfchex.com/cams/nags-head-web-cam-abalone-st/

3k Nam says Nyet to most.

Euro Ai was throwing decent qpf back west of me.

BAM Wx winter forecast. Mainly average snowfall to slightly below in northern areas and slightly above in southern areas. But they put all of the forum in the highest chance to bust high for snowfall due to risk of a big 1 or 2 storms. (See starting 17:35 on video.) A little AN on temps.

Too hot, ehh? You're getting old Bob. Join the club. I've been a member only too long.

Just one more reason to hate Ocean City!

Low 50's around here this morning and still breezy.

Fwiw

December had a decent snow storm from VA to north of PHL ( idk how far) with 6"+ from VA to near PHL.

1" on the dot up here. Feels and looks like Fall on the first day of Fall. Hopefully the first day of Winter delivers similarly...to Winter that is!

On a related note, a met from the NE forum put together a snow storm archive of winters going back to 92/93. It is NE centric, but plenty of radars and maps that include the Conus and MA region. Here's a link if interested, assuming it hasn't already been posted. https://www.jdjweatherconsulting.com/storm-archive

Maybe already posted somewhere in this thread/forum, but if not, Nam, Href, and Sref are gone as of 10/6.

Euro suite advertising decent rains thru the middle of the week. 1.5-2"+