mitchnick
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Everything posted by mitchnick
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I am using current climate numbers to determine above or below normal just as previous NWS records established above or below normal readings. That's their protocol. If you want to cherry pick by using or considering different periods to push an agenda, that's fine. But don't be shocked or appalled when someone else points out that's what you're doing. Like it or not, the numbers I posted for MDT are what will be used by the NWS.
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Right. And those ups and downs during the month create the average. Considering the ridge location this summer to Harrisburg, those numbers are no big deal for June and July and August will negate much of the AN anomalies. I don't know what Phl had since it's not mby.
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Dude, I understand numbers. All you can do is doubledown on the agenda. At least you don't deny it.
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MDT was -1.6 for August thru yesterday. Should end up decently BN in light of the current pattern.
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Not here. And who says I can't go by climate normals? People who push an agenda maybe?
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Odd. Harrisburg (MDT) is already -1.6 for August thru yesterday and will end the month much lower. June was only +1.3 and July +2.5. The 3 summer months could easily end averaging barely AN.
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I posted a few weeks ago when this cold snap started showing up on the ensembles that I believe late summer/early fall cold snaps are indicative of a better chance of colder winters. I think I said it wasn't a guarantee, but that colder winters often feature them. Time will obviously tell what happens, but it's at least a reason to remain optimistic at this point if you prefer cold/snowy. September's updated monthly forecasts "should" start to hone in one way or the other.
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You don't change your underwear every day?
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Keep in mind that those probability maps don't predict actual temps, just the likelihood of above or below normal. The Euro weeklies, of course, do...for what they're worth since they change every day. Lol https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/extended-anomaly-2t?base_time=202508230000&projection=opencharts_north_america&valid_time=202509010000
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Cyclonicwx.com offers a 30 day change map fwiw.
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That 500mb anomaly map looks like the latest Euro seasonal.
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The last forecast for the week of 8/25 off the weeklies and it turned out to be the coldest forecast of all!
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Here's another great one. Incredible camera resolution. If you're on your phone, be sure to turn it horizontally for a full screen view. https://avalonpier.com/piercam/
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There's the pro version and weenie version right there! Lol
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Assuming it is, they're never exactly the same and small variations can make a big difference with the final results.
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Lots of NC live cams at this link. https://www.surfchex.com/cams/hatteras-web-cam/
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As previously mentioned, it will likely not technically reach a Niña (5 consecutive tri-monthly SSTA of -.5C at ENSO 3.4), but other measurements like MEI and RONI likely will. So it shouldn't be overwhelming.
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An update from yesterday's run for week of 8/25 fwiw.
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It's whatever Joe Bastardi says it is! @snowman19
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I know some memorable winters were on the heels of decent ACE numbers, but I thought I read somewhere, could've been on this Board, high ACE numbers are no guarantee for a decent east coast winter either. From what little I've paid attention to hurricane activity as a clue to east coast winters, it seems a large number of recurves was a better indicator if you're looking for a decent east coast winter. Is that right? Anyone?
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I was wondering the same thing, but since I really don't follow the tropics, I didn't bother to ask. But since you do follow the tropics Larry, what's your guess on the number of points Erin will add to the ACE?
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Interesting change of events on the weeklies for the last week of August starting on the 25th. Top map is from the 8/3 run, middle map is from last Friday, the 8th, and the bottom map is from yesterday. Could be fun if this kind of trend continues thru winter on the weeklies...or suck (for some) if it goes the other way.
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That's why I said "most." It’s never wall to wall cold early in the season or all through a cold winter. Even 1/96 had a heck of a warm spell. But I'm not even suggesting it will be a cold winter or that you need early cool shots for a cold winter. My point was more to suggest we may be able to lower the odds the cr@p, warm winters in light of the early season cool shots.
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You read way too much into my post. I simply stated it won't be classified as an official Niña, not that the consequences would be different with a different classification. As for the 1C° difference comment, a full 1C° does make a difference when you think about it if you compare the consequences of + or - 1C° anomaly to a 0° anomaly. So I think you meant a fraction of a degree Celsius.
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Not that late summer/early fall cold shots are always indicative of an incoming cold winter, I'd bet my retirement that most warm winters lack them. So decreasing the chance of a warm winter is always a step in the right direction at this point of the year imho.
