mitchnick
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Everything posted by mitchnick
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The seasonal 3-month forecasts are all that's available on the free site but pay sites have monthly forecasts.
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Every SSTA map is different from the rest. Insane how much they vary and I suspect explains, in part, why long range model solutions vary early on in the forecast period with greater variations later in the forecast periods.
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This is pretty much a broad brush from the Euro seasonal because it's NE US, but these monthly temp anomalies are not bad considering the last 10 years if close to being right.
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Some better images off WxBell posted in the MA forum.
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I should have added, looks like overrunning threats for the NE, or snow to rain/mix.
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Looks more like an abundance of LES with this slp mean imho.
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Looking at the 5H map I posted, from my perspective, I see "relative" weakness around and off Japan along with stronger ridging in Alaska. Both are positive if you're hoping for at least periods of opportunities during the winter.
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I wouldn't say it’s the same...more like similar.
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5H Dec-Feb Euro
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And DEC-FEB is +.5-1C. Very workable with normal precip it is also predicting. Monthly forecast indicates January very close to normal with February, like most Niñas, the most AN.
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Updated Euro seasonal for August just out off free site. https://charts.ecmwf.int/?facets={"Product type"%3A["Experimental%3A AIFS"]%2C"Parameters"%3A[]%2C"Type"%3A[]%2C"Range"%3A["Seasonal"]}
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August Euro seasonal just out off free site fwiw. https://charts.ecmwf.int/?facets={"Product type"%3A["Experimental%3A AIFS"]%2C"Parameters"%3A[]%2C"Type"%3A[]%2C"Range"%3A["Seasonal"]}
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Last 4 or 5 days the daily PDO rose from -3.5 to -2.73 on the World Climate Service site, so it's too early to get too concerned for this winter.
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My date of birth.
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Better here than northern and central Canada.
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Glad I don't live in Japan.
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New Cansips run looks very similar to last couple months with normal to BN 40N into Canada fwiw. Pretty consistent ridging over/near Alaska and poleward with SE ridging around until February.
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I hope you're right. I just don't get the excitement over hurricanes and their destructive power.
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There was no consensus last year with a noticeable disparity between the Cansips and Euro for example. But since seasonal modeling runs vary from 4×/day with the Cfs2 and monthly forecasts from others, it's a moving target depending on which forecast you're using.
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Eps showing a relaxation of the trades at 850 coming soon and Cfs2 agrees.
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And most modeling had it above normal in the East/NE at this point and both Don Sutherland and Bluewave were pointing out how the Euro, which had an extensive area AN, was too cool the winter or 2 before. A quick search found this, but I believe it was August's forecast where Don and Bluewave were posting that point.
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Cfs2 has been liking this look for August and September fwiw. Here's August: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cfs-mon®ion=us&pkg=z500a&runtime=2025071806&fh=1 https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cfs-mon®ion=us&pkg=T2ma&runtime=2025071806&fh=1
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Who referenced Nao or winter? I just pointed out the current solar spike was a short term spike. No more, no less. The irresistible impulse of you and Bluewave to turn everything negative for posters who enjoy cold or snow is strange to say the least. Actually, it's likely much worse than strange.
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Transient as it breaks the following week.
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