Ggem has the Pivotal storm headed toward us, but is warmer to start with cold air lagging. Icon has a shot, if closer to being accurate, to be a decent hit imho.
The only way to know for certain is if the sim radar option is offered. On Pivotal, USA products have sim radar but other models don't. Maybe WB or weathermodels.com offers them, idk.
Hrrr early on putting southern tier of PA as the bullseye per this progged radar.
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=refcmp&rh=2024021512&fh=35&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1