mitchnick

1pm

Euro just further north as usual

Gefs continue with normal temps with ridge draped across the southern tier being pushed sw.

6z Eps

By the end of the Gefs 18z run (Christmas Day), the ridge across the country has been squashed far enough south to result in normal 850 temps and BN surface temps. Coincidentally, just like the Cansips was showing for the month of January I mentioned earlier today in this thread.

Or insanity

Rgem and Icon have nothing for Friday. Hard to have confidence in anything but flurries without total model support.

We're 2" on Pivotal fwiw. Charlottesville still gets more than that. And you know they will actual get it while ours is iffy. Lol

We get something Sunday, but not too much much to spoil us.

Latest Cfs2 weekly temp forecast. Not bad and looks familiar too. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cfs-avg&region=us&pkg=T2maMean&runtime=2025120900&fh=168

Very similar to the Cansips that keeps cold lurking to our north most of the winter. Here's a link to 2m temps starting in January. Cansips actually likes January for temps over December, thoigh we've built up quite a deficit so far and will maintain most of it before the pattern breaks down. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cansips&region=us&pkg=T2ma&runtime=2025120100&fh=0 If you look at 5H anomalies, Cansips wants to have higher heights draped across most areas in the country south of 39-40N. It still gets at or a little BN temps in our area with the WxUSAF slow bleed idea. It's going to be low level, which will likely cause angst (zr/ip) threats, as 850 anomalies are not as favorable. All in all, we should still have decent chances in January if the Cansips is close to being right, and that map above says it may end up right imho.

Part (<1") of that accumulation on the 6z Euro is from Friday evening system fwiw.

Pattern has to break, but "usually " the pattern from November into December returns as the predominant pattern. Again...usually. No guarantees in weather like stock investing.

Closest Wunderground station to mby at 8.

Are you new here?

EURO AI is a toilet flush too.

There's that end of the run overrunning fantasy again on the Gfs similar to 12z. Edit: morphs into a hellava snowstorm

Now what do I do with my life?

Eps totally screwed mby with the snow to rain threat last week with 5" 4+ days out, 3" the day before and 2"+ on the 6z run the morning of the event only to get close to 3/4" snow and sleet. I guess it's me, but the Eps are always wrong with accumulations imby.

It peaked my interest because it's similar to the recent Cfs2 and Cansips forecasts with a boundary just to our south with precip potential.

Loving the overrunning near end of Gfs run.

Not saying it will happen, but with this pattern I've been waiting for something like rlthis.

Thanks for proving my point.

You and your weenies. I must say, you are the most disrespectful individual on this board.

Icon hoped on board with Friday/Saturday