mitchnick

Cfs2 has been advertising a trough in the east for weeks. Not a winter style trough, a summer one, which is much shallower but still effective in giving us regular shots of more tolerable summer temps. Cfs2 has also been pretty consistent with blocking around the Pole for December too. Here's a link to the most recent of the June 500mb anomalies with a caveat that the Cfs2 for those unfamiliar has 4 runs/day. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cfs-mon&region=nhem&pkg=z500a&runtime=2025031318&fh=3

End of Gem has something. I think all the models are going to be teasing thanks to the SSW, but that doesn't mean anyone in the forum will see anything. Threats are so scattered.

It will. It's just going to take 9 months to do it.

0z Euro just 2 weeks away.

Euro AI. Close to something pathetic.

Thunder up here.

Looking at many years of data makes me feel old. No thanks.

Today’s updated Euro monthly not sold on a Niño yet.

Today's updated Euro monthly not seeing a Niño yet.

18z Ukmet ensembles. I guess you can say there was an improvement over the 12z run (on top).

Only goes out 66hrs, but the ensembles go out to 198hrs. It's in the process of updating now.

It's also 30-36 hours later than the Gfs.

Yeah, but it's just a rainstorm with no cold air anywhere close to the MA.

What do the precip maps look like?

6 hour Gefs qpf from 18z at 144hrs on top and Eps on the bottom. Lol

I looked at qpf on the JMA and in the DCA/BWI area the scale increased by 2 levels (.5") and 1 level (.25") imby. Heaviest precip on the JMA is in central VA and south and they're likely rain or mix at best. Iow, JMA ain't close to what the Gfs is showing.

A 1 in a 19 year event. At least the odds are in our favor for once.

18z run ends at 144hrs, so you'll have to wait for 0z.

In light of the difference in placement of the Great Lakes slp, I would have thought the Euro would be further north with the southern system. Heck of a lot more space with the Euro.

Odds favor 18z Gfs won't look like 12z. No consistency when it comes to snow "threats" all winter.

You never know how they are going to shake out, so you just roll the dice with guidance consensus.

Everything says a legit SSW event starting 3/11. Chilly end of March into April as a result is a good bet and just maybe an anomalous late season snow somewhere in the east.

All the ensembles are at .75"+. Forget the operationals, especially the Gfs.

I don't think the existence or non-existence of that storm in any way changes my need for counseling services.

That's why I always said you want to be in the bullseye area with the season's first synoptic event. Not necessarily "the" bullseye, but the bullseye stripe or area.