mitchnick
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Everything posted by mitchnick
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She asked about the Atlantic, and that's what he responded to and that which my comment was directed. Warm water off Japan this winter is likely a given unless tropical systems were to go on steroids.
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Meh, Ben Noll....what a hypster. Yes Ana, it's boiling hot at +1-1.2C. Look at the graph.
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Another .2" since my oast report of 3.5", so 3.7" since yesterday morning plus the 3.5" from Wednesday. 7.2" for the week is the most I've had here since purchase in 9/19.
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Drove up to East Berlin and back west to Rt. 94, crossing the Conewago River a couple of times. It was way up as expected and I'll be surprised if it doesn't go over some of the bridges at the crest.
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DCA picked up 1.68" between 8 and 9am.
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Stopped for now. Only an additional inch to my 2.5". I don't buy it. I think the wind skewed the collection, but that's just my hunch.
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Just got brighter, but still pouring. Dry slot just to my west. Yay!
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I didn't dump my gauge this morning when it was ar 2.5". It only goes to 6", and I'm not sure if it holds all of this.
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And one of yesterday's runs of the Euro gave you next to nothing.
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I dodge that bullet, but now have my eye on the line further south. Meanwhile, it continues to pour.
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Moved to me west. But tornado in DC proper associated with the southern end of the same line.
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https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=CTP&wwa=tornado warning
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Tornado warning just to my ssw in Carrol County, MD. I think it heads just to my west.
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Funny. Models are always too far east or south with east coast storms on the long and medium range (even into the short range sometimes), especially in Niñas. Happens year round, but we usually only notice it in the winter.
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74dp out there is nasty. Oye...BWI is 77
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Bubbler, you getting crushed right now?
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Generally speaking, modeling did a lousy job with long and medium range forecasts, with only some short term forecasts being acceptable all things considered.
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A very surprising 2.5" overnight. I checked the radar going back 6.5 hours and looks like I was right under the train track of oranges and yellows. Time sensitive link. https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/?parms=LWX-N0B-1-200-100-usa-rad
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I don't keep a running total, so I can't say. But you may be right.
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Meh...tornadoes can go to helicity.
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12z Rgem is 5-6" here. Hope that's wrong.
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The Euro has never been the same since the 2017 alleged "update", so I'm not sure how much it can be trusted.
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6z Euro is sorta nbd considering other modeling.
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Bubbler, radar looks good over your way now with these appetizers.
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Well, let's not forget that Enso 3.4 only goes from 120W to 170W. If you look at that prog, most of the strongest anomalies are west of that. In fact, the strongest are west of 160E, which is the limit of Enso 4. So even assuming this prog verifies, I doubt it has a huge impact in Enso 3 and 3.4. Just mho.
