mitchnick
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Everything posted by mitchnick
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Probably not, but I have no idea of the responsibilities. Is there a link to a NWS site that sets out requirements, etc.?
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Come to think of it, that makes sense needing a coop observer. I noticed that Hanover records on the State College site came to an end over a year ago.
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Moved and then retired. Granchild chasing.
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Fyi, I got that graph above off of this link that has a bunch of decent wx info. https://s2s.worldclimateservice.com/climatepanel/
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Don't know about the forecast, but currently it's close to average.
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Well, posted now are June to July for both 09' and this year and the trough in 09' is still way deeper and should be cooler than this year. I understand your argument in general. You may be right, I don't know because I haven't researched it. But right or wrong, I don't think the 09' v. 23' comparison can be used fairly in light of the difference in size and depth of the eastern troughs and Canadian ridges.
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I used June to August because that's what you originally used.
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That's June to July. I posted June to August.
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92 in Hanover on my cheesy thermometer and that appears to match York airport 12-13 miles as the crows flies to my ENE.
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I should have double-checked before posting. The trough in 2009 was much stronger than this year (in addition to the weaker ridge), so cooler temps would be expected. So I'm not sure I agree with your statement that the trough this year was nearly as deep.
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To be fair, that ridge over western Canada was so strong it allowed some big-time heating to occur that wasn't going to be modified on its way south. Weaken that ridge in western Canada to that of 2009 and you lose the back burner heating prior to delivery into the US. For winter, I hope the better part of that ridge lingers.
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And no basement! I saw Dan Ryan homes is building in there, or should I say DRB Homes. If you Google Dan Ryan Homes the reviews aren't pretty, which is probably why they changed the name!!! Lol Interestingly, I went to High School with Dan Ryan in Baltimore. Same grade but never in the same class for anything ever in 4 years, and it wasn't a huge HS either. So I can't say I know him. Anyway, according to the DRB website, he's still running the show there.
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Since the MJO has behaved like no other super Nino, doesn't this therefore suggest it won't become one? I guess it could, but it seems you need MJO cooperation similar to previous events in order to get one unless there's a new way of getting there.
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3 ensembles all show normal temps back in the area in the 7-8 day period.
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I got the impression that's who was buying Amblebrook.
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I look at that ssta map and think that trades kicking in would do nothing but warm 3.4 anomalies.
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Take 234 west of Biglerville and it gets real pretty real fast up into the hills covered in orchards. Take it all the way to Rt. 30 and you're at diabetes heaven.... Mr. Ed's.
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Impending MJO has really weakened on guidance the last few days per link below on models that were really impressed like the Gfs suite and Bomm. Eps and extended Eps were never that impressed with it from the start and still aren't. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/clivar_wh.shtml
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Looks great. Like that forcing off the US SE coast popping this run too.
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Thanks. Anxious to see the 500mb maps off Tropical Tidbits tonight.
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Bigger difference in strength and location of positive anomalies in the Eastern Pac than western Pac forcing.
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Don't know if anyone noticed, but the TAO map is now showing a growing area of anomalies in 3.4. Also, IF the CFS trade forecast is close to being correct, I could see 3.4 warming after a relaxation of the trades while 1+2 continues to cool. This would be consistent with most modeling having this event progressing from the current east based to basinwide. Encouraging to see possible confirmation now showing up in short and medium range forecasts.
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Probably no coincidence then that the best MEI match so far this year is 2002.
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Idk know about forecasting in absolutes considering the variations in model MJO forecasts, but we'll know soon enough (as in a couple weeks if those trades verify.)
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Current Gfs and Cfs2 runs (for better or for worse), would suggest otherwise. Don't know what other modeling is saying however.
