mitchnick

No decent pizza in Waynesboro?

You go CFS, you go!!!!

I'm surprised that the NW'ly flow is so strong. Seems like the front has pressed more than modeling figured yesterday.

Odd. Your graphs look different than today's forecast from this site. I even updated my cache. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/CFSv2SST8210.html

Traffic? We are in heaven with traffic around here vs Baltimore area. We got our place here in late 2019 and starting May 2020 I commuted from Hanover to my office in Glen Burnie (southern side of BWI) for 2 years while our youngest daughter lived in our house in Linthicum. Now THAT'S crappy traffic! Lol But there are a surprising number of people around here that have been commuting to Baltimore for years. God bless them because they are better than me.

God, I hope not. Our church does not have a/c and anything above mid 80's gets tough.

Elevation for sure. I'm at 600' and my daughter se of me by 5+ miles is around 730' and she always does better than me during marginal events. But I'm a 10 minute drive to the top of Pigeon Hills, which is a bit over 1200', so I'll often take the short trip to see how the other half lives.

I had no problem hitting 90's here. The difference in climo between you and me is pretty incredible considering the short distance.

Yes. Cfs2 agrees fwiw. The Cfs2 isn't great for long term predictions, but it's reasonable with showing trends over the next month or less. And its current trends are consistent with this month's other Seasonal modeling to lower the peak for the event.

QBO for September is -9.88.

Just remember the knife is on the right side of the plate and the fork is on the left, and you'll be fine.

I look at that and worry it favors the southern MA. Living thru 72/73 around BWI remains a very bad nightmare for me.

It appears to show 3.4 at the start of September at around +1.8C, but none of the current monitoring shows that. CPC was 1.6 on 8/30 and OIST was +1.55C on 9/1. Also, you're reading the graph incorrectly. Jan is around +2.3C not +2.5C.

Yep....another .2"

Yeah, my daughter lives SE of town by a mile+ and she hadn't had a drop while we were in the middle of it, so that sounds right. West of town was the place to be for the first round, and mby is NNE of the center of Hanover (94 & 194).

That's true. I remember that.

I was at the Olive Garden when the storm hit. Tons of close lightning and thunder with heavy rain. But once there was a break and I got home (1 mile+ as the crow flies), I could tell it wasn't quite as heavy and there was only .2" in the rain gauge. But it's a cheap gauge and doesn't catch everything when it's as windy as this storm was, so there was probably a bit more than that. In any event, it's a start and we've got many more chances over the next 4-5 days.

Getting crushed now.

Raining here with a renegade shower ahead of the main batch.

Cells joining forces now in southern Frederick county, MD aimed right at me. What could go wrong? Lol

0z Euro thru 84 hrs.

I should be so lucky to lose part of my lawn. I hate mowing grass but refuse to pay someone money for something I hate so much. Lol So I curse for 50 minutes once a week, or 2 if I'm lucky like this week. I say "fry baby, fry!"

Dry as a bone here. At this point, any rain will only act to save the weeds.

18z Euro is decent considering this is only thru 90 hrs.

Jumping back to the Euro Seasonal, I would definitely not give up on December. The only free maps the Euro site offers are world and N. Hemisphere views. As such, attached are the World 850 temp ensemble mean anomaly maps for December and January. Both months have us in the normal range with December closer to slightly AN and January closer to slightly BN. Thus, we could definitely score in December, mostly likely a single event like 12/82 where BWI had a coastal that dropped 6.7" with Biglerville at 2". And despite that event, BWI was still +3.4 degrees AN for December. Finally, also attached is the 500mb anomaly for 12/82 that was butt ugly but still didn't prevent a coastal.