mitchnick

18z Canadian (GGEM) sticks with heavy rain. Bigtime totals thru 84 and still raining heavy at 84 hrs.

Yep. Idk, I think we get 1-2" with this system. I just don't buy the Euro and Ukie at this point.

Here you go 40/70 Benchmark. Stolen from Phillywx.

18z Gfs is a nail biter west of Gettysburg.

Rgem is back too. And still raining hard at 84 hrs.

Nam is 2"+

Srefs total and rain still falling at the end of the run.

Fwiw, 15z srefs just coming out now still say it's coming. Run isn’t finished yet.

Heading back home. Good riddance!

JMA denies Japan bombed Pearl Harbor.

NAVGEM a pretty good hit, though you were probably not serious. Ukie is meh and attached. 6z Gfs back to 2"+.

There's no new information in it except for their declaration there's a coupled Nino (barely per MEI) and +IOD. I thought we knew that already. Honestly, your post sounded like there was something new which is why I thought you were referring to the BOM model.

Agree, and unlike the BOM, the CFS has been lowering the ONI in response. I do note that today's run did have a few ensemble members warmer than the mean. First day it showed that in a while.

Honestly thought similarly. Even has that strip of convergence leading to heaviest precip near the western edge.

Could it be right? I suppose, but the problem it's been having is putting the MJO on steroids. It did it a few weeks ago and I recall you posting how the MJO was finally kicking in and failed as it has all year. So I've posted the latest on the site BOM MJO forecast on top then the Euro and JMA since they've been fairly unimpressed with the MJO waking up. As you can see, BOM is on its own ending the run in left field...literally! Lol EDIT: I do note that the BOM plot is 2 days old, so I'll post the updated forecast when available, but I doubt it will be anywhere near the other 2 models.

18z Icon remains on board.

Gefs

Canadian ensembles. About 2x plus the Euro thru day 7.

Eps qpf thru day 7.

Have you ever tried the C&O Canal from around Harper's Ferry, WV north or south. Can't get any flatter and pretty picturesque.

Can't disagree with that map at this range.

Actually, globals are in pretty decent agreement with slp location at 18z on Friday. It's after that where they diverge.

But I don't want reasonable, I want rain!

If we get something close to this, I think we could safely say the worm has turned with our pattern.

News said 1 person died in house gas explosion.