mitchnick

Other model forecasts can be found at this link, middle of the page. http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/#tabs=Indian-Ocean

I'm wondering if that explains the paultry MEI numbers...greatest SSTA are focused east but the atmosphere is signaling forcing will be west as most modeling shows at this point. Just a thought.

02/03 is actually closer imho with a +.4 in both May/June and June/July readings.

That's surprising they would be so confident. Last night's 0z runs of the Euro ensembles and bias corrected Euro ensembles keeps the MJO near dead center of the COD on 7/24. The forecasts referenced in those tweets must have been from 0z and 12z 7/9 in light of the time/date stamps. The link below I used/referenced above has just about all MJO forecasts with the Key to each product abbreviation below the forecast box. Fyi, the default model for the link is the Gefs. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/clivar_wh.shtml People appear too eager to cling onto MJO forecasts weeks out that can't even be accurately forecasted days out. But that's what happens when models start to increase the regularity of their runs.

The blurb that FPizz posted was mine from a Phillywx post. I included with my post the MEI values since 1979, so I will include them with this post. You can see from the MEI values, ALL strong events were greater than 1 at the May/June reading with 97/98 at 2.4. I haven't seen a graph for the RONI, and maybe I'm reading your post incorrectly, but the MEI this year clearly does not stack up with past super el nino events thru May/June. In fact, this year's MEI matches closest to 02/03 & 09/10 to my aged eyes. I agree with your definition/purpose of the MEI, so maybe there's a lag, but it sure is odd that the readings so far have been far from previous strong events and much closer to weak Niños. Fyi, if anyone is looking for a 1 stop site for Enso modeling/conditions, this would be it: http://www.stormsurf.com/page2/links/ensocurr.html

My law school buddy in Salisbury measured 12", but he's got bad eye sight after running into an ambulance he was chasing! Lol If he sent me one more pic, I swear I was going to give him a bad rating on lawyers.com! He's got like 20" on the year. Unbelievable.

Thank God somebody included 1/25/00. I could see where the Dc folks might leave it off their list, but that was a great storm for those of us us along the western shores of the Bay. And the lead up to it continues to make every weenie on this Board old enoigh to remember it keep false hopes alive for any storm along the se coast progged ots.

Congrats folks. 6z rgem. Go to hour 36. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=rgem&region=neus&pkg=asnow&runtime=2016020406&fh=6&xpos=0&ypos=0

Just a reminder. Although this site doesn't have every reporting station, it has the main ones. Just change the station name on the url at the end of the address. AND, you can go back 6 days and get every GFS forecast. It's pretty cool to see how rock solid the GFS was. This is BWI. http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=KBWI

Maybe it will help to perturb our friend known as the PV.

http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KDCA/2009/12/25/DailyHistory.html

Didn't look like that on Christmas day.

A pivot to die for.

So glad it rained on that Christmas and washed it away or I might start crying.

And the snow disappeared one night with a cutter leading to temps in the 50's and wind swept, pea soup, fog. I remember it vividly trying to drive in it. Very cool and very dangerous.

Wow, you really did get hosed in the 2/10/10 storm. I got lucky, it's that simple.

it was better than that Uncle...snowmageddon was more than 2 feet and yeah, 19"+ from snowmageddon 2 on top of 20"+ otg was heaven

I was thinking the same thing the other day, but they were definitely 2 distinct, and very different, systems.

I didn't see anything great about it.

that's the spirit! your location is always in a primo location during NINOs, so early congrats to ya!

good! except for 5/57, every strong NINO that had a lousy winter (at BWI) was preceded by colder than normal Mays (5/72 and 5/97) while the decent strong NINO winters had warm Mays (5/65 and 5/82).....and since the NINO of 57/58 had a NINA the preceding winter, we toss and before you say it, I'm just starting the denial process for this winter early, so give me a break that said, I still prefer the "coincidence" to be in our favor than against it

you know it's a lousy, lousy winter when polls show up about prior storms

so you're the SOB that ran over my grandmother on 495 that day great story!

it was right around this time that the flakes starting falling imby that Friday night

global cooling