mitchnick
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Everything posted by mitchnick
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That's certainly what the Euro Seasonal, Cansip, NMME (minus the Cfs), and JMA Seasonal (to a lesser extent than the others) are saying.
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In other news, life's not fair! j/k Actually, I'm on the far western edge of that flood watch...I call bs imby. 12z run on the 3K NAM, which has done well lately as the stingyest model on qpf, gave me literally nothing. 18z puts me under a stripe of .75"+. It'll never happen. And if it did, I'll dump out most of the water in my gauge before measuring. I can't miss with this forecast.
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Regarding the bolded portion of your post, until you can prove to a reasonable degree of scientic certainty, I don't think "probably" in an atmosphere as chaotic as Earth's is sufficient. Obviously, I don't expect you to do that here, but it would be necessary before your conclusion is proven correct.
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Winter 2023-2024
mitchnick replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
September's updated JMA seasonal forecast, despite a slightly warmer ENSO, has come in cooler in the Southeast & Mid-Atlantic than the August forecast. Also, AN precip has expanded further north up the east coast. August forecast is on top and September's below August's. -
That's the GFS. CFS says it's still coming fwiw.
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It's ok. I'll get over it.
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For June and July forecasts for September, even the CFS was around +1.8-1.9. Sorry Snowman .
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July 1 POAMA forecast says 3.4 is +2.3C while reality was +1.55C. Even current forecast has 9/1 at +1.9C. Seems to start off wrong and that error gets magnified over time.
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Yep. That's what happened. My mistake. EDIT: But as a comment, they don't start the observation on 9/1. It's 8/15 when it was a touch over +1.3.
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I'm just west of that lihe now with only a few drops, but the southern end of the line is intensifying/expanding westward and now looks headed right for me. But these storms have been tricky with all the redevelopment as they move NE, so it can still miss me.
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Typical for this summer, that area developed to my north by 5 miles and moved right up Rt.94. https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/?parms=LWX-N0B-1-96-100-usa-rad
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My treat.
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Believe me brother, I'm with you on that. My July was about 1.25" or less and August had a couple of days with less than 1.5" and only some random showers for the month. I fear with this oddly evolving Niño we're all going to get screwed ala 72/73.
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Your area has had the hot hand the last couple of days. Let me be the first to say Congrats.
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Charts Copernicus forecast starts on September 1 and has the 9/1 anomaly at +2. 1-2.2C for 3.4. That's wrong. Oisst had it at +1.55C. So if you subtract the .6 error from the max forecast of +2.2 +/-, you get something much more in line with moderate Niño MEI's...coincidentally?
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Sounds like it rained cats and dogs in Paw Paw.
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Lol. Got home to light rain and partially dry ground. Nothing in the rain gauge. I mean Mcsherrystown is less than 10 minutes from mby. Unbelievable. So how often does your club meet as I may be interested in joining?
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I didn't get much here in Hanover. We've had the same issue with missing just to the nse&w. Headed back home so I will check the gauge then.
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Was crushing 10 minutes ago in Mcsherrystown but light here in Hanover. Can't miss me tonight. How much is the ?
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Same here. If for no other reason than the sultry airmass you mentioned.
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We're being surrounded! https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/?parms=LWX-N0B-1-24-100-usa-rad
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More ☀!! https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/sector_band.php?sat=G16§or=ne&band=GEOCOLOR&length=24
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Forgot the juicy part!
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Of course you'll take it and be happy...you're in Mt. Joy. :-)
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It has been terrible all this summer, way overforecasting rain amounts. And every time I hear "upgrade" I know it means degrade.
