mitchnick
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Everything posted by mitchnick
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Screw em?....a tiny moth? You been talking to my wife?
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Moths need a home too ya' know.
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The fact that there are 3, if not more, sources for ssta numbers is absurd imho.
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There is support!
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Only if you promise to never post climo data. Lol
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The sacred "pattern" advertised by long range modeling for weeks has medium range modeling advertising the "fruits" of the pattern now within the medium range.
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Crushes it instead of phasing. Carry on...nothing to see here. Lol
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Fwiw, Canadian looks a bit more interesting with the 5th early on with the northern stream headed SE. How much it can pull the southern stream north tbd.
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They got one a couple weeks before PDII.
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Doubt it's right, but 0z Icon is entertaining if nothing else.
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Nice to see the Gfs has our first Mecs/Hecs at the end of the 18z run.
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Saw from NE thread they would probably be upgrading the resolution, but poster wasn't certain.
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Anybody hear about this? It's a notice posted on Stormvista re the Euro.
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It was a Flop... February 2024 Disco. Thread
mitchnick replied to Prismshine Productions's topic in New England
And 3 days later, 850's are normal and surface temps down considerably following 850's back towards normal....all consistent with extended ensembles fwiw. -
Probably is time to finally party with the Gefs. The good news is that 850 temps are normal and surface only a hair over on their way down. Time to buckle up and see what comes of it.
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Gefs creeping precip/snow north as of 168hrs fwiw.
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Explanation of why mid-late February-March has a shot. https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/59779-winter-202324-mediumlong-range-discussion/?do=findComment&comment=7185737
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Doesn't scream snow, but does want to make me scream!
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Actually, this started out as a threat on the Euro when it showed a traditional Carolina Crusher. If it is going to crush someone, I think it still favors the Carolinas.
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Iow, we don't have a shot. Agreed. Lol
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Nothing to get it north. 500mb has a closed low that's stuck keeping slp stalled in the SE until the NE gyre (thanks Larry Cosgrove) pulls out and lets it escape to the east.
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Yep. From the start, but hopefully not to the finish. Not that I have anything against the people of Finland.
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Odd 78/79-La Nada 77/78-weak Nino 95/96-weak Nina
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I don't disagree completely, but in this case, the pattern represented by a -PDO does fit our pattern in the mean this winter.
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I believe our nemesis this year has been the consistent -PDO. Just about every other strong Niño, if not all, had averaged a +PDO. In fact, those that were negative at the start of winter, switched to positive. It explains the reluctance of the trough to leave the SW and the consistent -PNA. I know the extended ensembles show a +PNA, but with the reluctance of the trough to migrate east, it hard for me to believe the PNA goes + as long as the -PDO is maintained.
