mitchnick

92 in Hanover on my cheesy thermometer and that appears to match York airport 12-13 miles as the crows flies to my ENE.

I should have double-checked before posting. The trough in 2009 was much stronger than this year (in addition to the weaker ridge), so cooler temps would be expected. So I'm not sure I agree with your statement that the trough this year was nearly as deep.

To be fair, that ridge over western Canada was so strong it allowed some big-time heating to occur that wasn't going to be modified on its way south. Weaken that ridge in western Canada to that of 2009 and you lose the back burner heating prior to delivery into the US. For winter, I hope the better part of that ridge lingers.

And no basement! I saw Dan Ryan homes is building in there, or should I say DRB Homes. If you Google Dan Ryan Homes the reviews aren't pretty, which is probably why they changed the name!!! Lol Interestingly, I went to High School with Dan Ryan in Baltimore. Same grade but never in the same class for anything ever in 4 years, and it wasn't a huge HS either. So I can't say I know him. Anyway, according to the DRB website, he's still running the show there.

Since the MJO has behaved like no other super Nino, doesn't this therefore suggest it won't become one? I guess it could, but it seems you need MJO cooperation similar to previous events in order to get one unless there's a new way of getting there.

3 ensembles all show normal temps back in the area in the 7-8 day period.

I got the impression that's who was buying Amblebrook.

I look at that ssta map and think that trades kicking in would do nothing but warm 3.4 anomalies.

Take 234 west of Biglerville and it gets real pretty real fast up into the hills covered in orchards. Take it all the way to Rt. 30 and you're at diabetes heaven.... Mr. Ed's.

Impending MJO has really weakened on guidance the last few days per link below on models that were really impressed like the Gfs suite and Bomm. Eps and extended Eps were never that impressed with it from the start and still aren't. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/clivar_wh.shtml

Looks great. Like that forcing off the US SE coast popping this run too.

Thanks. Anxious to see the 500mb maps off Tropical Tidbits tonight.

Bigger difference in strength and location of positive anomalies in the Eastern Pac than western Pac forcing.

Don't know if anyone noticed, but the TAO map is now showing a growing area of anomalies in 3.4. Also, IF the CFS trade forecast is close to being correct, I could see 3.4 warming after a relaxation of the trades while 1+2 continues to cool. This would be consistent with most modeling having this event progressing from the current east based to basinwide. Encouraging to see possible confirmation now showing up in short and medium range forecasts.

Probably no coincidence then that the best MEI match so far this year is 2002.

Idk know about forecasting in absolutes considering the variations in model MJO forecasts, but we'll know soon enough (as in a couple weeks if those trades verify.)

Current Gfs and Cfs2 runs (for better or for worse), would suggest otherwise. Don't know what other modeling is saying however.

Other model forecasts can be found at this link, middle of the page. http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/#tabs=Indian-Ocean

I'm wondering if that explains the paultry MEI numbers...greatest SSTA are focused east but the atmosphere is signaling forcing will be west as most modeling shows at this point. Just a thought.

02/03 is actually closer imho with a +.4 in both May/June and June/July readings.

That's surprising they would be so confident. Last night's 0z runs of the Euro ensembles and bias corrected Euro ensembles keeps the MJO near dead center of the COD on 7/24. The forecasts referenced in those tweets must have been from 0z and 12z 7/9 in light of the time/date stamps. The link below I used/referenced above has just about all MJO forecasts with the Key to each product abbreviation below the forecast box. Fyi, the default model for the link is the Gefs. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/clivar_wh.shtml People appear too eager to cling onto MJO forecasts weeks out that can't even be accurately forecasted days out. But that's what happens when models start to increase the regularity of their runs.

The blurb that FPizz posted was mine from a Phillywx post. I included with my post the MEI values since 1979, so I will include them with this post. You can see from the MEI values, ALL strong events were greater than 1 at the May/June reading with 97/98 at 2.4. I haven't seen a graph for the RONI, and maybe I'm reading your post incorrectly, but the MEI this year clearly does not stack up with past super el nino events thru May/June. In fact, this year's MEI matches closest to 02/03 & 09/10 to my aged eyes. I agree with your definition/purpose of the MEI, so maybe there's a lag, but it sure is odd that the readings so far have been far from previous strong events and much closer to weak Niños. Fyi, if anyone is looking for a 1 stop site for Enso modeling/conditions, this would be it: http://www.stormsurf.com/page2/links/ensocurr.html

My law school buddy in Salisbury measured 12", but he's got bad eye sight after running into an ambulance he was chasing! Lol If he sent me one more pic, I swear I was going to give him a bad rating on lawyers.com! He's got like 20" on the year. Unbelievable.

Thank God somebody included 1/25/00. I could see where the Dc folks might leave it off their list, but that was a great storm for those of us us along the western shores of the Bay. And the lead up to it continues to make every weenie on this Board old enoigh to remember it keep false hopes alive for any storm along the se coast progged ots.

Congrats folks. 6z rgem. Go to hour 36. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=rgem&region=neus&pkg=asnow&runtime=2016020406&fh=6&xpos=0&ypos=0