mitchnick

Ahh, you forget my feelings toward grass.

Sorry folks, but if you don't do a short mow the day before the first progged snow, regardless of the month, you'll have to return to detention at Weenie High.

When you get short term fails like the ones you suggest (and the numbers don't lie), it's hard to believe the October updates for the winter won't be knocked down a few pegs. Which then begs the question how much can the MEI rise between September's number and October's? Pure speculation, but anything greater than .2 would be surprising to this weenie, and that would likely end chances of an MEI in a super range.

Early precip starts usually mean qpf overperformers.

Looks like the CFS wants to fire up the MJO starting around the 10th of October but is pretty benign until then. The progged MJO activity coincides with 3.4 rising on the bottom graph. Is it right? Probably to some extent in light of other modeling.Color Shades = Wind Anomalies (Yellow = Westerly Anomalies/Active MJO & Blue = Easterly Anomalies/Inactive MJO)Red Countours indicate MJO Phase (Solid = Active Phase & Dotted = Inactive Phase)Black Countours indicate High or Low Pressue Bias (Solid = Low Pressure/possible El Nino & Dotted = High Pressure/possible La Nina)

Will do.....more than once too.

Weatherwise, none of the modeling has killed our chances tomorrow. Looks like somewhere between .3"-.6" qpf conservatively. I'll disregard any model greater than .6" until there's a consensus tomorrow at 12z. Footballwise, I'm glad I lost interests in sports years ago and relegate all my frustration with things out of my control to weather.

48.9 here for a low

6z Euro fwiw.

Absolutely. Globals have had everything too far south and west. It really seems that the model with the least qpf has been the winner. That said, 3k Nam hasn't done bad here because it's usually been the driest, or 1 of the driest. Still too early to get excited with what it's showing, but I'll take it as encouraging for now.

6z 3k Nam loves yby.

Wow. The only leaves that have fallen here are from the dry conditions. I do see some color showing up on Pigeon Hills, but you have to look hard. Eps qpf has traditionally been pretty good, at least when it's showing the lowest for snow events. Hopefully the "alleged" recent upgrades will be just that. We obviously have some time before winter to see.

0Z Eps qpf for Sunday.

Lol. The problem you seem to have is not everyone who may disagree with your interpretation is Joe Bastardi. I've never said anything about a cold and snowy winter. I am saying that I don't believe this winter will behave like your stereotypical strong or super Niño. I have not said, however, how it will behave because a) it's too early to say, and b) it's likely to be unique and anyone who gets it close to right will need more luck than knowledge.

No strong Niño had an MEI as low as this one. Not even close at this stage of the game in fact. I think tempering one's expectations that this Niño will behave similarly to previous Niños based solely/heavily on the ONI is prudent.

At least you got as much as you could out of them.

I want to get a price for one of those Mitsubishi cold climate heat pumps. They don't have an electric strip backup like regulare heat punps as they funtion even down to -25F. That's not us, but heat pumps are efficient until around 40 degrees, then the backup electric heating strip kicks in. Only questions I have are price and a/c as I read they don't do well in hit summer climates. Gotta find out if they mean us or Arizona type hot.

Actually, I'm seriously considering getting rid of my oil forced air/central a/c system. Before we bought it, the a/c unit was replaced in 2017 with a 13 SEER unit that's really not bad, while the oil furnace was replaced in 2018 with supposed 95% efficiency system. I say "supposed" because unlike gas systems, a lot of heat still escapes through the chimney evidenced by the very hit flu vs gas systems that use pvc pipes that expel a little warm steam. Problem is, with the tax credit, the contractors up their prices by the amount of the tax credit so that benefit is nonexistent. I got prices last year and didn't pull the trigger. I'm going to go back and get some more and likely do it. I've got a full oil tank and that should get me to January, early or late, depending on temps. Probably will get a heat pump and deal with the electric bill vs the cost of diesel, which is what they use for home heating oil. Also, the cost of cleaning the oil furnace ($250/yr) will be eliminated.

I was trying to think of something positive to say but all I can come with is Ughhhh...

A neighbor got a new roof in the last 6 months. Wow, prices are crazy. Another neighbor just got a metal roof. Wonder how much they run.

51 for a low imby but 47 at the York Airport. Sunday still looking encouraging but hard to get too excited this year 48 hours out.

As good as that looks, la-la land day 10 looks real nice too. EDIT: on the Gem....sorry

Agree. Cansips doesn't have eastern US above normal precip kicking in until December. Nina background state is hard to shake free from after 1 year of La Nada followed by 3 years of Nina.

Yeah, Cansips September forecast is far from Niño-like.